| League | Match | Selection | Model | Fair | Book | EV | Stake |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UCL | Sabah FAvAarhus | Aarhus A thin data | 62.0% | 1.61 | 3.52 | +118.3% | — |
| UCL | CeljevArarat-Armenia | Ararat-Armenia A thin data | 29.8% | 3.35 | 6.72 | +100.5% | — |
| UCL | Kauno ŽalgirisvDinamo Zagreb | Kauno Žalgiris H thin data | 23.9% | 4.19 | 6.94 | +65.8% | — |
| UCL | FK Crvena ZvezdavHapoel Beer Sheva | Hapoel Beer Sheva A thin data | 17.5% | 5.72 | 9.17 | +60.2% | — |
| UCL | FK Crvena ZvezdavHapoel Beer Sheva | Draw thin data | 25.7% | 3.89 | 5.69 | +46.1% | — |
| UEL | SaburtalovLarne | Larne A thin data | 30.1% | 3.33 | 4.82 | +45.0% | — |
| UCL | Bodo/GlimtvUnion St. Gilloise | Union St. Gilloise A | 31.2% | 3.21 | 4.50 | +40.5% | 2.89% |
| UCL | Kauno ŽalgirisvDinamo Zagreb | Draw thin data | 24.6% | 4.06 | 4.87 | +19.9% | — |
| UCL | NEC NijmegenvOlympiakos Piraeus | Olympiakos Piraeus A | 46.7% | 2.14 | 2.52 | +17.7% | 2.91% |
| UCL | CeljevArarat-Armenia | Draw thin data | 26.7% | 3.74 | 4.40 | +17.5% | — |
| UCL | Sturm GrazvFenerbahçe | Sturm Graz H | 30.1% | 3.32 | 3.73 | +12.4% | 1.13% |
| UCL | LyonvSparta Praha | Sparta Praha A | 18.5% | 5.42 | 5.71 | +5.5% | — |
| UCL | Kairat AlmatyvLevski Sofia | Kairat Almaty H thin data | 43.1% | 2.32 | 2.41 | +3.7% | — |
| UCL | Bodo/GlimtvUnion St. Gilloise | Draw | 21.9% | 4.57 | 4.46 | -2.3% | — |
| UCL | Kairat AlmatyvLevski Sofia | Draw thin data | 29.1% | 3.43 | 3.24 | -5.7% | — |
| UCL | NEC NijmegenvOlympiakos Piraeus | Draw | 27.7% | 3.61 | 3.32 | -8.0% | — |
| UCL | LyonvSparta Praha | Draw | 21.1% | 4.74 | 4.31 | -8.9% | — |
| UCL | LyonvSparta Praha | Lyon H | 60.4% | 1.66 | 1.50 | -9.6% | — |
| UCL | Sturm GrazvFenerbahçe | Fenerbahçe A | 48.3% | 2.07 | 1.86 | -10.2% | — |
| UEL | SaburtalovLarne | Draw thin data | 23.8% | 4.20 | 3.54 | -15.7% | — |
| UCL | Sturm GrazvFenerbahçe | Draw | 21.6% | 4.64 | 3.73 | -19.5% | — |
| UCL | Kairat AlmatyvLevski Sofia | Levski Sofia A thin data | 27.8% | 3.60 | 2.85 | -20.6% | — |
| UEL | SaburtalovLarne | Saburtalo H thin data | 46.1% | 2.17 | 1.68 | -22.4% | — |
| UCL | Bodo/GlimtvUnion St. Gilloise | Bodo/Glimt H | 46.9% | 2.13 | 1.60 | -25.1% | — |
| UCL | FK Crvena ZvezdavHapoel Beer Sheva | FK Crvena Zvezda H thin data | 56.8% | 1.76 | 1.27 | -27.7% | — |
Stake is blank unless a selection clears every gate: positive expected value, at least 5 percentage points of edge over the de-vigged line, and not more than 25 (a disagreement that large is usually the model missing something, not an opportunity). Most rows will be blank most days. Selections marked longshot are below 10% — their EV figure divides by a very small number and should not be trusted. thin data means one side has too few matches in the model's history for its rating to mean anything; the huge edge shown is the model's ignorance, not the market's mistake.
Kept separate from the match-winner table because they are a different bet: independent of who wins, driven by the total-goals distribution rather than the difference between the two sides. Worth a look for two reasons — a goal model is being asked the question it was actually built to answer, and a totals line is far less correlated with the rest of a slip than another favourite. Against that, books charge more margin here than on the match winner, so a given edge has further to travel.
| League | Match | Market | Pick | Model | Fair | Book | EV | Stake |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UCL | Sabah FAvAarhus | Totals | Over3.5 thin data | 37.9% | 2.64 | 7.69 | +191.1% | — |
| UEL | SaburtalovLarne | Totals | Over3.5 thin data | 34.1% | 2.93 | 8.39 | +186.2% | — |
| UCL | LyonvSparta Praha | Totals | Over3.5 | 43.3% | 2.31 | 6.59 | +185.1% | — |
| UCL | NEC NijmegenvOlympiakos Piraeus | Totals | Over3.5 | 28.7% | 3.48 | 9.18 | +163.6% | 3.00% |
| UCL | Kauno ŽalgirisvDinamo Zagreb | Totals | Over3.5 thin data | 38.1% | 2.63 | 6.85 | +160.7% | — |
| UCL | CeljevArarat-Armenia | Totals | Over3.5 thin data | 36.1% | 2.77 | 7.08 | +155.3% | — |
| UEL | SaburtalovLarne | Totals | Over2.5 thin data | 55.6% | 1.80 | 4.58 | +154.5% | — |
| UCL | NEC NijmegenvOlympiakos Piraeus | Totals | Over2.5 | 49.9% | 2.00 | 4.85 | +142.0% | — |
| UCL | LyonvSparta Praha | Totals | Over2.5 | 64.4% | 1.55 | 3.70 | +137.9% | — |
| UCL | CeljevArarat-Armenia | Totals | Over2.5 thin data | 57.6% | 1.74 | 4.11 | +136.4% | — |
| UCL | Sturm GrazvFenerbahçe | Totals | Over3.5 | 34.9% | 2.86 | 6.72 | +134.9% | 3.00% |
| UCL | Sabah FAvAarhus | Totals | Over2.5 thin data | 59.3% | 1.69 | 3.80 | +125.5% | — |
| UCL | Sturm GrazvFenerbahçe | Totals | Over2.5 | 56.4% | 1.77 | 3.81 | +115.2% | — |
| UCL | Bodo/GlimtvUnion St. Gilloise | Totals | Over3.5 | 34.0% | 2.94 | 6.11 | +107.8% | 3.00% |
| UCL | Sabah FAvAarhus | BTTS | Yes— thin data | 58.3% | 1.72 | 3.56 | +107.6% | — |
| UCL | Kauno ŽalgirisvDinamo Zagreb | BTTS | Yes— thin data | 58.9% | 1.70 | 3.52 | +107.2% | — |
| UCL | LyonvSparta Praha | BTTS | Yes— | 57.7% | 1.73 | 3.51 | +102.5% | — |
| UCL | Kauno ŽalgirisvDinamo Zagreb | Totals | Over2.5 thin data | 59.5% | 1.68 | 3.38 | +101.0% | — |
| UCL | Sturm GrazvFenerbahçe | BTTS | Yes— | 56.9% | 1.76 | 3.30 | +88.0% | 3.00% |
| UEL | SaburtalovLarne | Totals | Over1.5 thin data | 78.4% | 1.28 | 2.33 | +82.5% | — |
| UCL | NEC NijmegenvOlympiakos Piraeus | Totals | Over1.5 | 74.2% | 1.35 | 2.41 | +79.1% | — |
| UCL | Kairat AlmatyvLevski Sofia | Totals | Over2.5 thin data | 32.1% | 3.12 | 5.58 | +79.0% | — |
| UEL | SaburtalovLarne | BTTS | Yes— thin data | 56.2% | 1.78 | 3.15 | +76.9% | — |
| UCL | Sabah FAvAarhus | Totals | Over1.5 thin data | 80.9% | 1.24 | 2.12 | +71.8% | — |
| UCL | Bodo/GlimtvUnion St. Gilloise | Totals | Over2.5 | 55.5% | 1.80 | 3.09 | +71.2% | 3.00% |
One row per market per match: the side the model prefers. The two sides of a two-way line are near mirror images, so showing both would double the table without adding anything. Edges are measured against each pair de-vigged on its own, not against the match-winner margin — books load goals markets more heavily, and borrowing the 1X2 overround here would flatter every row.
The vs naive column is how far a bookmaker would be off if they priced the combination by multiplying the two legs together. A large positive number means the events happen together more often than independence implies — draws and low-scoring games, for instance — so a multiplied price is too generous.
| Match | Combination | Model | Fair | vs naive | Book | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polokwane CityvStellenbosch | BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 | 16.4% | 6.10 | +170% | — | — |
| FK Crvena ZvezdavHapoel Beer Sheva | Away + Away clean sheet | 12.8% | 7.81 | +157% | — | — |
| Bodo/GlimtvUnion St. Gilloise | Away + Away clean sheet | 12.5% | 7.98 | +150% | — | — |
| Sabah FAvAarhus | Home + Home clean sheet | 12.7% | 7.89 | +141% | — | — |
| SaburtalovLarne | Away + Away clean sheet | 13.8% | 7.24 | +134% | — | — |
| CeljevArarat-Armenia | Away + Away clean sheet | 13.8% | 7.24 | +131% | — | — |
| NEC NijmegenvOlympiakos Piraeus | Home + Home clean sheet | 14.8% | 6.74 | +130% | — | — |
| Sturm GrazvFenerbahçe | Home + Home clean sheet | 14.6% | 6.86 | +124% | — | — |
| Chippa UnitedvRichards Bay | BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 | 22.5% | 4.44 | +122% | — | — |
| Kauno ŽalgirisvDinamo Zagreb | Away + Away clean sheet | 15.3% | 6.55 | +112% | — | — |
| Kairat AlmatyvLevski Sofia | BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 | 25.5% | 3.93 | +106% | — | — |
| Kauno ŽalgirisvDinamo Zagreb | Home + Home clean sheet | 17.3% | 5.79 | +96% | — | — |
| Kairat AlmatyvLevski Sofia | Away + Away clean sheet | 20.2% | 4.95 | +93% | — | — |
| Kauno ŽalgirisvDinamo Zagreb | BTTS No + Under 2.5 | 28.8% | 3.47 | +92% | — | — |
| Sabah FAvAarhus | BTTS No + Under 2.5 | 29.1% | 3.43 | +89% | — | — |
| LyonvSparta Praha | BTTS No + Under 2.5 | 25.8% | 3.88 | +88% | — | — |
| Chippa UnitedvRichards Bay | Away + Away clean sheet | 21.7% | 4.62 | +84% | — | — |
| CeljevArarat-Armenia | BTTS No + Under 2.5 | 30.6% | 3.27 | +84% | — | — |
| LyonvSparta Praha | Draw + Under 2.5 | 13.1% | 7.64 | +83% | — | — |
| Sturm GrazvFenerbahçe | Away + Away clean sheet | 20.0% | 5.00 | +83% | — | — |
Legs from different matches are independent, so the probabilities multiply — and so does the bookmaker's margin. The final column is the share of fair value lost to compounding vig at 5% per leg, before your model is even wrong about anything. Accumulators are on this page because people want them, not because they are a good idea.
| Legs | N | Model | Fair | Book | EV | Margin cost |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saburtalo v Larne — over 2.5 goals NEC Nijmegen v Olympiakos Piraeus — over 2.5 goals Lyon v Sparta Praha — over 2.5 goals thin data | 3 | 17.9% | 5.60 | 82.07 | +1365.6% | −14% |
| Saburtalo v Larne — over 2.5 goals NEC Nijmegen v Olympiakos Piraeus — over 2.5 goals Celje v Ararat-Armenia — over 2.5 goals thin data | 3 | 16.0% | 6.26 | 91.21 | +1356.2% | −14% |
| Lyon v Sparta Praha — over 2.5 goals Celje v Ararat-Armenia — over 2.5 goals Sabah FA v Aarhus — over 2.5 goals thin data | 3 | 22.0% | 4.55 | 57.68 | +1168.3% | −14% |
| Sabah FA v Aarhus — over 2.5 goals Sturm Graz v Fenerbahçe — over 2.5 goals Kauno Žalgiris v Dinamo Zagreb — both teams to score thin data | 3 | 19.7% | 5.07 | 50.99 | +905.4% | −14% |
| Sabah FA v Aarhus — Aarhus to win (A) Sturm Graz v Fenerbahçe — over 2.5 goals Kauno Žalgiris v Dinamo Zagreb — both teams to score thin data | 3 | 20.6% | 4.85 | 47.21 | +873.5% | −14% |
| Sabah FA v Aarhus — Aarhus to win (A) Lyon v Sparta Praha — both teams to score Kauno Žalgiris v Dinamo Zagreb — over 2.5 goals thin data | 3 | 21.3% | 4.70 | 41.74 | +788.6% | −14% |
| Lyon v Sparta Praha — both teams to score Kauno Žalgiris v Dinamo Zagreb — over 2.5 goals Sturm Graz v Fenerbahçe — both teams to score thin data | 3 | 19.5% | 5.12 | 39.18 | +665.3% | −14% |
| Sturm Graz v Fenerbahçe — both teams to score Saburtalo v Larne — over 1.5 goals NEC Nijmegen v Olympiakos Piraeus — over 1.5 goals thin data | 3 | 33.1% | 3.02 | 18.57 | +514.6% | −14% |
| Saburtalo v Larne — over 1.5 goals NEC Nijmegen v Olympiakos Piraeus — over 1.5 goals Bodo/Glimt v Union St. Gilloise — over 2.5 goals thin data | 3 | 32.3% | 3.10 | 17.35 | +459.7% | −14% |
| Bodo/Glimt v Union St. Gilloise — over 2.5 goals Celje v Ararat-Armenia — both teams to score FK Crvena Zvezda v Hapoel Beer Sheva — both teams to score thin data | 3 | 14.6% | 6.85 | 31.74 | +363.6% | −14% |
| Match | Selection | Model | Fair | Book | EV | Stake |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TS GalaxyvMamelodi Sundowns | Mamelodi Sundowns A | 67.8% | 1.47 | — | — | — |
| Chippa UnitedvRichards Bay | Chippa United H | 39.5% | 2.53 | — | — | — |
| Polokwane CityvStellenbosch | Draw | 35.7% | 2.80 | — | — | — |
| Polokwane CityvStellenbosch | Polokwane City H | 32.5% | 3.08 | — | — | — |
| Polokwane CityvStellenbosch | Stellenbosch A | 31.8% | 3.14 | — | — | — |
| Chippa UnitedvRichards Bay | Draw | 31.1% | 3.22 | — | — | — |
Stake is blank unless a selection clears every gate: positive expected value, at least 5 percentage points of edge over the de-vigged line, and not more than 25 (a disagreement that large is usually the model missing something, not an opportunity). Most rows will be blank most days. Selections marked longshot are below 10% — their EV figure divides by a very small number and should not be trusted. thin data means one side has too few matches in the model's history for its rating to mean anything; the huge edge shown is the model's ignorance, not the market's mistake.
| Match | Selection | Model | Fair | Book | EV | Stake |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sabah FAvAarhus | Aarhus A thin data | 62.0% | 1.61 | 3.52 | +118.3% | — |
| CeljevArarat-Armenia | Ararat-Armenia A thin data | 29.8% | 3.35 | 6.72 | +100.5% | — |
| Kauno ŽalgirisvDinamo Zagreb | Kauno Žalgiris H thin data | 23.9% | 4.19 | 6.94 | +65.8% | — |
| FK Crvena ZvezdavHapoel Beer Sheva | Hapoel Beer Sheva A thin data | 17.5% | 5.72 | 9.17 | +60.2% | — |
| FK Crvena ZvezdavHapoel Beer Sheva | Draw thin data | 25.7% | 3.89 | 5.69 | +46.1% | — |
| Bodo/GlimtvUnion St. Gilloise | Union St. Gilloise A | 31.2% | 3.21 | 4.50 | +40.5% | 2.89% |
Stake is blank unless a selection clears every gate: positive expected value, at least 5 percentage points of edge over the de-vigged line, and not more than 25 (a disagreement that large is usually the model missing something, not an opportunity). Most rows will be blank most days. Selections marked longshot are below 10% — their EV figure divides by a very small number and should not be trusted. thin data means one side has too few matches in the model's history for its rating to mean anything; the huge edge shown is the model's ignorance, not the market's mistake.
| Match | Market | Pick | Model | Fair | Book | EV | Stake |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sabah FAvAarhus | Totals | Over3.5 thin data | 37.9% | 2.64 | 7.69 | +191.1% | — |
| LyonvSparta Praha | Totals | Over3.5 | 43.3% | 2.31 | 6.59 | +185.1% | — |
| NEC NijmegenvOlympiakos Piraeus | Totals | Over3.5 | 28.7% | 3.48 | 9.18 | +163.6% | 3.00% |
| Kauno ŽalgirisvDinamo Zagreb | Totals | Over3.5 thin data | 38.1% | 2.63 | 6.85 | +160.7% | — |
| CeljevArarat-Armenia | Totals | Over3.5 thin data | 36.1% | 2.77 | 7.08 | +155.3% | — |
| NEC NijmegenvOlympiakos Piraeus | Totals | Over2.5 | 49.9% | 2.00 | 4.85 | +142.0% | — |
One row per market per match: the side the model prefers. The two sides of a two-way line are near mirror images, so showing both would double the table without adding anything. Edges are measured against each pair de-vigged on its own, not against the match-winner margin — books load goals markets more heavily, and borrowing the 1X2 overround here would flatter every row.
| Model | Market | Book odds | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kairat Almaty | 43.1% | 38.9% | 2.41 | +4.1pp |
| Draw | 29.1% | 28.5% | 3.24 | +0.6pp |
| Levski Sofia | 27.8% | 32.6% | 2.85 | -4.8pp |
| Over 1.5 | 58.6% | 35.5% | 2.64 | +23.2pp |
| Under 1.5 | 41.4% | 64.5% | 1.45 | -23.2pp |
| Over 2.5 | 32.1% | 17.5% | 5.58 | +14.5pp |
| Under 2.5 | 67.9% | 82.5% | 1.19 | -14.5pp |
| Over 3.5 | 14.6% | 10.3% | 9.67 | +4.3pp |
| Under 3.5 | 85.4% | 89.7% | 1.11 | -4.3pp |
| BTTS Yes | 42.5% | 30.6% | 3.20 | +12.0pp |
| BTTS No | 57.5% | 69.4% | 1.41 | -12.0pp |
| Model | Market | Book odds | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bodo/Glimt | 46.9% | 59.8% | 1.60 | -12.8pp |
| Draw | 21.9% | 20.2% | 4.46 | +1.7pp |
| Union St. Gilloise | 31.2% | 20.0% | 4.50 | +11.2pp |
| Over 1.5 | 78.3% | 51.8% | 1.82 | +26.4pp |
| Under 1.5 | 21.7% | 48.2% | 1.96 | -26.4pp |
| Over 2.5 | 55.5% | 33.0% | 3.09 | +22.4pp |
| Under 2.5 | 44.5% | 67.0% | 1.52 | -22.4pp |
| Over 3.5 | 34.0% | 17.2% | 6.11 | +16.8pp |
| Under 3.5 | 66.0% | 82.8% | 1.27 | -16.8pp |
| BTTS Yes | 55.7% | 37.6% | 2.82 | +18.1pp |
| BTTS No | 44.3% | 62.4% | 1.70 | -18.1pp |
| Model | Market | Book odds | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sabah FA | 17.3% | 47.5% | 1.99 | -30.2pp |
| Draw | 20.7% | 26.4% | 3.47 | -5.7pp |
| Aarhus | 62.0% | 26.0% | 3.52 | +36.0pp |
| Over 1.5 | 80.9% | 44.4% | 2.12 | +36.5pp |
| Under 1.5 | 19.1% | 55.6% | 1.69 | -36.5pp |
| Over 2.5 | 59.3% | 26.2% | 3.80 | +33.2pp |
| Under 2.5 | 40.7% | 73.8% | 1.35 | -33.2pp |
| Over 3.5 | 37.9% | 13.2% | 7.69 | +24.7pp |
| Under 3.5 | 62.1% | 86.8% | 1.17 | -24.7pp |
| BTTS Yes | 58.3% | 29.6% | 3.56 | +28.7pp |
| BTTS No | 41.7% | 70.4% | 1.49 | -28.7pp |
| Model | Market | Book odds | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kauno Žalgiris | 23.9% | 12.3% | 6.94 | +11.6pp |
| Draw | 24.6% | 18.3% | 4.87 | +6.4pp |
| Dinamo Zagreb | 51.5% | 69.5% | 1.38 | -18.0pp |
| Over 1.5 | 81.1% | 48.9% | 1.92 | +32.1pp |
| Under 1.5 | 18.9% | 51.1% | 1.84 | -32.1pp |
| Over 2.5 | 59.5% | 29.9% | 3.38 | +29.6pp |
| Under 2.5 | 40.5% | 70.1% | 1.44 | -29.6pp |
| Over 3.5 | 38.1% | 15.2% | 6.85 | +22.9pp |
| Under 3.5 | 61.9% | 84.8% | 1.22 | -22.9pp |
| BTTS Yes | 58.9% | 29.6% | 3.52 | +29.3pp |
| BTTS No | 41.1% | 70.4% | 1.48 | -29.3pp |
| Model | Market | Book odds | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEC Nijmegen | 25.6% | 35.2% | 2.65 | -9.6pp |
| Draw | 27.7% | 27.7% | 3.32 | -0.0pp |
| Olympiakos Piraeus | 46.7% | 37.1% | 2.52 | +9.6pp |
| Over 1.5 | 74.2% | 38.9% | 2.41 | +35.3pp |
| Under 1.5 | 25.8% | 61.1% | 1.54 | -35.3pp |
| Over 2.5 | 49.9% | 20.4% | 4.85 | +29.5pp |
| Under 2.5 | 50.1% | 79.6% | 1.24 | -29.5pp |
| Over 3.5 | 28.7% | 11.0% | 9.18 | +17.8pp |
| Under 3.5 | 71.3% | 89.0% | 1.13 | -17.8pp |
| BTTS Yes | 52.9% | 33.7% | 2.91 | +19.2pp |
| BTTS No | 47.1% | 66.3% | 1.48 | -19.2pp |
| Model | Market | Book odds | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FK Crvena Zvezda | 56.8% | 75.5% | 1.27 | -18.7pp |
| Draw | 25.7% | 15.5% | 5.69 | +10.2pp |
| Hapoel Beer Sheva | 17.5% | 9.0% | 9.17 | +8.5pp |
| Over 1.5 | 66.6% | 52.4% | 1.80 | +14.2pp |
| Under 1.5 | 33.4% | 47.6% | 1.98 | -14.2pp |
| Over 2.5 | 40.6% | 33.6% | 3.04 | +7.0pp |
| Under 2.5 | 59.4% | 66.4% | 1.54 | -7.0pp |
| Over 3.5 | 20.9% | 17.7% | 5.99 | +3.2pp |
| Under 3.5 | 79.1% | 82.3% | 1.28 | -3.2pp |
| BTTS Yes | 45.8% | 29.9% | 3.49 | +16.0pp |
| BTTS No | 54.2% | 70.1% | 1.49 | -16.0pp |
| Model | Market | Book odds | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Celje | 43.5% | 67.1% | 1.42 | -23.6pp |
| Draw | 26.7% | 20.3% | 4.40 | +6.4pp |
| Ararat-Armenia | 29.8% | 12.6% | 6.72 | +17.2pp |
| Over 1.5 | 79.7% | 44.6% | 2.11 | +35.2pp |
| Under 1.5 | 20.3% | 55.4% | 1.69 | -35.2pp |
| Over 2.5 | 57.6% | 24.5% | 4.11 | +33.1pp |
| Under 2.5 | 42.4% | 75.5% | 1.33 | -33.1pp |
| Over 3.5 | 36.1% | 14.4% | 7.08 | +21.6pp |
| Under 3.5 | 63.9% | 85.6% | 1.19 | -21.6pp |
| BTTS Yes | 57.5% | 33.0% | 2.94 | +24.4pp |
| BTTS No | 42.5% | 67.0% | 1.45 | -24.4pp |
| Model | Market | Book odds | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sturm Graz | 30.1% | 24.5% | 3.73 | +5.6pp |
| Draw | 21.6% | 24.5% | 3.73 | -2.9pp |
| Fenerbahçe | 48.3% | 51.0% | 1.86 | -2.7pp |
| Over 1.5 | 79.0% | 45.2% | 2.08 | +33.7pp |
| Under 1.5 | 21.0% | 54.8% | 1.72 | -33.7pp |
| Over 2.5 | 56.4% | 26.3% | 3.81 | +30.1pp |
| Under 2.5 | 43.6% | 73.7% | 1.36 | -30.1pp |
| Over 3.5 | 34.9% | 15.2% | 6.72 | +19.7pp |
| Under 3.5 | 65.1% | 84.8% | 1.21 | -19.7pp |
| BTTS Yes | 56.9% | 32.1% | 3.30 | +24.8pp |
| BTTS No | 43.1% | 67.9% | 1.56 | -24.8pp |
| Model | Market | Book odds | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lyon | 60.4% | 63.8% | 1.50 | -3.3pp |
| Draw | 21.1% | 20.9% | 4.31 | +0.2pp |
| Sparta Praha | 18.5% | 15.3% | 5.71 | +3.1pp |
| Over 1.5 | 84.1% | 46.4% | 2.02 | +37.7pp |
| Under 1.5 | 15.9% | 53.6% | 1.75 | -37.7pp |
| Over 2.5 | 64.4% | 27.2% | 3.70 | +37.2pp |
| Under 2.5 | 35.6% | 72.8% | 1.38 | -37.2pp |
| Over 3.5 | 43.3% | 15.7% | 6.59 | +27.6pp |
| Under 3.5 | 56.7% | 84.3% | 1.23 | -27.6pp |
| BTTS Yes | 57.7% | 29.9% | 3.51 | +27.7pp |
| BTTS No | 42.3% | 70.1% | 1.50 | -27.7pp |
| Match | Selection | Model | Fair | Book | EV | Stake |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SaburtalovLarne | Larne A thin data | 30.1% | 3.33 | 4.82 | +45.0% | — |
| SaburtalovLarne | Draw thin data | 23.8% | 4.20 | 3.54 | -15.7% | — |
| SaburtalovLarne | Saburtalo H thin data | 46.1% | 2.17 | 1.68 | -22.4% | — |
Stake is blank unless a selection clears every gate: positive expected value, at least 5 percentage points of edge over the de-vigged line, and not more than 25 (a disagreement that large is usually the model missing something, not an opportunity). Most rows will be blank most days. Selections marked longshot are below 10% — their EV figure divides by a very small number and should not be trusted. thin data means one side has too few matches in the model's history for its rating to mean anything; the huge edge shown is the model's ignorance, not the market's mistake.
| Match | Market | Pick | Model | Fair | Book | EV | Stake |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SaburtalovLarne | Totals | Over3.5 thin data | 34.1% | 2.93 | 8.39 | +186.2% | — |
| SaburtalovLarne | Totals | Over2.5 thin data | 55.6% | 1.80 | 4.58 | +154.5% | — |
| SaburtalovLarne | Totals | Over1.5 thin data | 78.4% | 1.28 | 2.33 | +82.5% | — |
| SaburtalovLarne | BTTS | Yes— thin data | 56.2% | 1.78 | 3.15 | +76.9% | — |
One row per market per match: the side the model prefers. The two sides of a two-way line are near mirror images, so showing both would double the table without adding anything. Edges are measured against each pair de-vigged on its own, not against the match-winner margin — books load goals markets more heavily, and borrowing the 1X2 overround here would flatter every row.
| Model | Market | Book odds | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saburtalo | 46.1% | 56.2% | 1.68 | -10.0pp |
| Draw | 23.8% | 25.6% | 3.54 | -1.8pp |
| Larne | 30.1% | 18.3% | 4.82 | +11.8pp |
| Over 1.5 | 78.4% | 41.9% | 2.33 | +36.4pp |
| Under 1.5 | 21.6% | 58.1% | 1.68 | -36.4pp |
| Over 2.5 | 55.6% | 22.1% | 4.58 | +33.5pp |
| Under 2.5 | 44.4% | 77.9% | 1.30 | -33.5pp |
| Over 3.5 | 34.1% | 12.0% | 8.39 | +22.1pp |
| Under 3.5 | 65.9% | 88.0% | 1.14 | -22.1pp |
| BTTS Yes | 56.2% | 31.0% | 3.15 | +25.2pp |
| BTTS No | 43.8% | 69.0% | 1.42 | -25.2pp |