Model output, not advice. These are probabilities from a
statistical model, published for transparency about how it performs. They are
not tips and not financial advice. In backtests this model does not
reliably beat closing prices, which is the only benchmark that matters, so
expect selections here to lose money over time. 18+. Gambling is addictive; if
it stops being a modelling exercise, stop.
Best value today across all competitions, ranked by expected
value rather than by how likely they are to win
| League | Match | Selection | Model | Fair | Book | EV | Stake |
|---|
| EFL | Mansfield TownvSheffield Utd | Mansfield Town H thin data | 54.2% | 1.85 | 3.86 | +109.2% | — |
| BRA1 | CruzeirovMirassol | Mirassol A | 33.5% | 2.99 | 5.19 | +73.7% | 3.00% |
| ITCUP | BeneventovRavenna | Ravenna A thin data | 32.9% | 3.04 | 5.08 | +66.9% | — |
| SUI1 | FC Basel 1893vFC Thun | FC Thun A | 37.2% | 2.69 | 3.77 | +40.1% | 3.00% |
| MTN8 | Kaizer ChiefsvGolden Arrows | Golden Arrows A | 23.6% | 4.23 | 5.60 | +32.1% | 1.75% |
| BRA1 | RB BragantinovCorinthians | Corinthians A | 37.3% | 2.68 | 3.47 | +29.1% | 2.95% |
| P1 | FC PortovAlverca | Draw | 19.1% | 5.22 | 6.72 | +28.6% | 1.25% |
| N1 | GroningenvUtrecht | Utrecht A | 41.5% | 2.41 | 3.04 | +26.3% | 3.00% |
| SC0 | RangersvHibernian | Hibernian A | 22.3% | 4.48 | 5.47 | +22.1% | 1.24% |
| NOR1 | Ham-KamvAalesund | Ham-Kam H | 56.0% | 1.78 | 2.10 | +17.6% | 3.00% |
| DEN1 | Randers FCvLyngby | Randers FC H | 52.0% | 1.92 | 2.23 | +15.8% | 3.00% |
| AUT1 | Wolfsberger ACvRed Bull Salzburg | Wolfsberger AC H | 31.0% | 3.22 | 3.72 | +15.3% | 1.41% |
| BEL1 | AntwerpvSK Beveren | Antwerp H | 62.1% | 1.61 | 1.85 | +14.7% | 3.00% |
| SUI1 | FC SionvFC Vaduz | Draw | 23.2% | 4.31 | 4.90 | +13.7% | 0.88% |
| NOR1 | LillestromvRosenborg | Rosenborg A | 40.2% | 2.49 | 2.75 | +10.4% | 1.49% |
| N1 | PEC ZwollevAjax | PEC Zwolle H | 19.9% | 5.02 | 5.50 | +9.5% | — |
| BRA1 | PalmeirasvInternacional | Internacional A | 18.0% | 5.56 | 5.95 | +6.9% | — |
| SC0 | Heart Of MidlothianvDundee Utd | Heart Of Midlothian H | 64.9% | 1.54 | 1.64 | +6.4% | 2.51% |
| SC0 | KilmarnockvCeltic | Kilmarnock H | 14.9% | 6.71 | 7.06 | +5.3% | — |
| BRA1 | BahiavVasco DA Gama | Bahia H | 53.3% | 1.88 | 1.98 | +5.2% | 1.34% |
| BRA1 | FlamengovVitoria | Draw | 17.8% | 5.61 | 5.87 | +4.7% | — |
| MTN8 | Kaizer ChiefsvGolden Arrows | Draw | 30.9% | 3.23 | 3.37 | +4.3% | — |
| N1 | Sparta RotterdamvFeyenoord | Feyenoord A | 61.3% | 1.63 | 1.70 | +4.1% | — |
| N1 | HeerenveenvTwente | Twente A | 47.2% | 2.12 | 2.20 | +4.0% | — |
| AUT1 | RiedvRapid Vienna | Draw | 32.0% | 3.12 | 3.24 | +3.8% | — |
Stake is blank unless a selection clears every gate: positive expected value, at least 5 percentage points of edge over the de-vigged line, and not more than 25 (a disagreement that large is usually the model missing something, not an opportunity). Most rows will be blank most days. Selections marked longshot are below 10% — their EV figure divides by a very small number and should not be trusted. thin data means one side has too few matches in the model's history for its rating to mean anything; the huge edge shown is the model's ignorance, not the market's mistake.
Best goal markets over/under and both teams to score,
ranked by expected value
Kept separate from
the match-winner table because they are a different bet: independent of who
wins, driven by the total-goals distribution rather than the difference
between the two sides. Worth a look for two reasons — a goal model is being
asked the question it was actually built to answer, and a totals line is far
less correlated with the rest of a slip than another favourite. Against that,
books charge more margin here than on the match winner, so a given edge has
further to travel.
How much this model actually knows about goals. Measured on out-of-fold predictions during training, not on the fixtures below:
- Totals: 0.6077 log loss vs 0.6906 for always predicting the base rate — clearly better than the base rate out of sample.
- BTTS: 0.6871 log loss vs 0.6903 for always predicting the base rate — barely better than the base rate out of sample. Predictions are shrunk toward the base rate (T=1.42) because the raw model was overconfident.
| League | Match | Market | Pick | Model | Fair | Book | EV | Stake |
|---|
| SC0 | KilmarnockvCeltic | Totals | Over3.5 | 42.7% | 2.34 | 6.74 | +187.4% | — |
| BRA1 | BahiavVasco DA Gama | Totals | Over3.5 | 33.7% | 2.97 | 8.33 | +180.5% | 3.00% |
| BEL1 | GentvKV Mechelen | Totals | Over3.5 | 33.4% | 2.99 | 8.00 | +167.4% | 3.00% |
| SC0 | RangersvHibernian | Totals | Over3.5 | 37.4% | 2.67 | 6.95 | +160.0% | 3.00% |
| NOR1 | LillestromvRosenborg | Totals | Over3.5 | 36.8% | 2.72 | 7.03 | +158.2% | 3.00% |
| BEL1 | Zulte WaregemvGenk | Totals | Over3.5 | 36.6% | 2.73 | 7.05 | +157.9% | 3.00% |
| BEL1 | AntwerpvSK Beveren | Totals | Over3.5 | 27.2% | 3.68 | 9.46 | +156.9% | 3.00% |
| ITCUP | BeneventovRavenna | Totals | Over2.5 thin data | 51.4% | 1.94 | 4.99 | +156.6% | — |
| P1 | MoreirensevSC Braga | Totals | Over3.5 | 27.9% | 3.58 | 9.09 | +153.7% | 3.00% |
| EFL | Mansfield TownvSheffield Utd | Totals | Over3.5 thin data | 31.1% | 3.22 | 8.04 | +149.8% | — |
| BRA1 | RB BragantinovCorinthians | Totals | Over2.5 | 45.5% | 2.20 | 5.49 | +149.6% | — |
| AUT1 | Wolfsberger ACvRed Bull Salzburg | Totals | Over3.5 | 34.3% | 2.91 | 7.27 | +149.4% | 3.00% |
| J1 | Tokyo VerdyvKawasaki Frontale | Totals | Over2.5 | 50.2% | 1.99 | 4.94 | +148.1% | — |
| BEL1 | AnderlechtvRAAL La Louvière | Totals | Over3.5 | 29.2% | 3.43 | 8.50 | +148.0% | 3.00% |
| AUT1 | Austria ViennavLask Linz | Totals | Over3.5 | 32.0% | 3.12 | 7.73 | +147.4% | 3.00% |
| DEN1 | AC HorsensvBrondby | Totals | Over3.5 | 28.2% | 3.54 | 8.72 | +146.0% | 3.00% |
| N1 | PEC ZwollevAjax | Totals | Over3.5 | 39.5% | 2.53 | 6.19 | +144.4% | 3.00% |
| BRA1 | BahiavVasco DA Gama | Totals | Over2.5 | 55.1% | 1.81 | 4.41 | +143.2% | — |
| J1 | Tokyo VerdyvKawasaki Frontale | Totals | Over3.5 | 29.0% | 3.45 | 8.32 | +141.3% | 3.00% |
| SC0 | MotherwellvFalkirk | Totals | Over3.5 | 32.9% | 3.04 | 7.27 | +139.1% | 3.00% |
| BRA1 | FlamengovVitoria | Totals | Over3.5 | 31.8% | 3.14 | 7.47 | +137.8% | 3.00% |
| BRA1 | PalmeirasvInternacional | Totals | Over2.5 | 50.4% | 1.98 | 4.71 | +137.5% | — |
| EFL | Mansfield TownvSheffield Utd | Totals | Over2.5 thin data | 52.4% | 1.91 | 4.49 | +135.3% | — |
| BRA1 | PalmeirasvInternacional | Totals | Over3.5 | 29.2% | 3.42 | 7.91 | +131.2% | 3.00% |
| SUI1 | FC ST. GallenvFC Luzern | Totals | Over3.5 | 42.9% | 2.33 | 5.31 | +128.1% | 3.00% |
One row per market per match: the side the model prefers. The two sides of a two-way line are near mirror images, so showing both would double the table without adding anything. Edges are measured against each pair de-vigged on its own, not against the match-winner margin — books load goals markets more heavily, and borrowing the 1X2 overround here would flatter every row.
Same-match combinations priced from the joint distribution,
so correlation is handled correctly
The
vs naive column is how far a bookmaker would be off if they priced the
combination by multiplying the two legs together. A large positive number means
the events happen together more often than independence implies — draws and
low-scoring games, for instance — so a multiplied price is too generous.
| Match | Combination | Model | Fair | vs naive | Book | EV |
|---|
| FC LuganovFC Zurich | Away + Away clean sheet | 10.4% | 9.61 | +190% | — | — |
| Mansfield TownvSheffield Utd | Away + Away clean sheet | 10.6% | 9.43 | +185% | — | — |
| Ham-KamvAalesund | Away + Away clean sheet | 10.9% | 9.22 | +182% | — | — |
| Kristiansund BKvMolde | Home + Home clean sheet | 10.5% | 9.57 | +181% | — | — |
| Sparta RotterdamvFeyenoord | Home + Home clean sheet | 10.5% | 9.56 | +181% | — | — |
| MotherwellvFalkirk | Away + Away clean sheet | 11.1% | 8.98 | +173% | — | — |
| MoreirensevSC Braga | Home + Home clean sheet | 11.6% | 8.61 | +172% | — | — |
| AntwerpvSK Beveren | Away + Away clean sheet | 12.0% | 8.30 | +165% | — | — |
| GIL VicentevRio Ave | Away + Away clean sheet | 12.5% | 8.00 | +160% | — | — |
| BahiavVasco DA Gama | Away + Away clean sheet | 12.2% | 8.21 | +155% | — | — |
| CharleroivOH Leuven | Away + Away clean sheet | 13.0% | 7.71 | +155% | — | — |
| GentvKV Mechelen | Away + Away clean sheet | 12.3% | 8.10 | +154% | — | — |
| Randers FCvLyngby | Away + Away clean sheet | 13.7% | 7.32 | +147% | — | — |
| FC SionvFC Vaduz | Away + Away clean sheet | 13.6% | 7.36 | +145% | — | — |
| AC HorsensvBrondby | Home + Home clean sheet | 13.9% | 7.18 | +140% | — | — |
| HeerenveenvTwente | Home + Home clean sheet | 13.4% | 7.44 | +133% | — | — |
| Kaizer ChiefsvGolden Arrows | Away + Away clean sheet | 14.8% | 6.74 | +133% | — | — |
| LillestromvRosenborg | Home + Home clean sheet | 14.2% | 7.05 | +125% | — | — |
| Zulte WaregemvGenk | Home + Home clean sheet | 14.6% | 6.85 | +121% | — | — |
| Tokyo VerdyvKawasaki Frontale | Home + Home clean sheet | 15.9% | 6.30 | +119% | — | — |
Accumulators shown with what they cost you
Legs from different
matches are independent, so the probabilities multiply — and so does the
bookmaker's margin. The final column is the share of fair value lost to
compounding vig at 5% per leg, before your model is even wrong about anything.
Accumulators are on this page because people want them, not because they are a
good idea.
| Legs | N | Model | Fair | Book | EV | Margin cost |
|---|
Benevento v Ravenna — over 2.5 goals
RB Bragantino v Corinthians — over 2.5 goals
Tokyo Verdy v Kawasaki Frontale — over 2.5 goals thin data | 3 | 11.7% | 8.52 | 135.31 | +1488.9% | −14% |
Benevento v Ravenna — over 2.5 goals
RB Bragantino v Corinthians — over 2.5 goals
Bahia v Vasco DA Gama — over 2.5 goals thin data | 3 | 12.9% | 7.75 | 120.72 | +1457.9% | −14% |
Tokyo Verdy v Kawasaki Frontale — over 2.5 goals
Bahia v Vasco DA Gama — over 2.5 goals
Palmeiras v Internacional — over 2.5 goals | 3 | 14.0% | 7.17 | 102.69 | +1333.0% | −14% |
Palmeiras v Internacional — over 2.5 goals
Mansfield Town v Sheffield Utd — over 2.5 goals
Austria Vienna v Lask Linz — over 2.5 goals thin data | 3 | 14.1% | 7.08 | 87.26 | +1132.5% | −14% |
Mansfield Town v Sheffield Utd — over 2.5 goals
Austria Vienna v Lask Linz — over 2.5 goals
Motherwell v Falkirk — over 2.5 goals thin data | 3 | 15.2% | 6.57 | 73.18 | +1014.0% | −14% |
Motherwell v Falkirk — over 2.5 goals
Moreirense v SC Braga — over 2.5 goals
Lillestrom v Rosenborg — over 2.5 goals | 3 | 15.5% | 6.45 | 62.60 | +870.5% | −14% |
Moreirense v SC Braga — over 2.5 goals
Lillestrom v Rosenborg — over 2.5 goals
Rangers v Hibernian — over 2.5 goals | 3 | 16.8% | 5.95 | 56.43 | +847.9% | −14% |
Rangers v Hibernian — over 2.5 goals
Mansfield Town v Sheffield Utd — Mansfield Town to win (H)
Antwerp v SK Beveren — over 2.5 goals thin data | 3 | 15.4% | 6.51 | 59.58 | +814.8% | −14% |
Mansfield Town v Sheffield Utd — Mansfield Town to win (H)
Antwerp v SK Beveren — over 2.5 goals
Wolfsberger AC v Red Bull Salzburg — over 2.5 goals thin data | 3 | 14.5% | 6.87 | 61.96 | +801.5% | −14% |
Wolfsberger AC v Red Bull Salzburg — over 2.5 goals
Gent v KV Mechelen — over 2.5 goals
Kilmarnock v Celtic — over 2.5 goals | 3 | 19.5% | 5.12 | 43.48 | +750.0% | −14% |
By competition 39 fixtures across
13 competitions ·
117/117 selections priced
Best value in AUT1
| Match | Selection | Model | Fair | Book | EV | Stake |
|---|
| Wolfsberger ACvRed Bull Salzburg | Wolfsberger AC H | 31.0% | 3.22 | 3.72 | +15.3% | 1.41% |
| RiedvRapid Vienna | Draw | 32.0% | 3.12 | 3.24 | +3.8% | — |
| Austria ViennavLask Linz | Lask Linz A | 49.5% | 2.02 | 1.97 | -2.7% | — |
| Austria ViennavLask Linz | Austria Vienna H | 26.7% | 3.74 | 3.51 | -6.0% | — |
| Wolfsberger ACvRed Bull Salzburg | Draw | 25.0% | 4.00 | 3.73 | -6.9% | — |
| RiedvRapid Vienna | Ried H | 31.2% | 3.21 | 2.97 | -7.5% | — |
Stake is blank unless a selection clears every gate: positive expected value, at least 5 percentage points of edge over the de-vigged line, and not more than 25 (a disagreement that large is usually the model missing something, not an opportunity). Most rows will be blank most days. Selections marked longshot are below 10% — their EV figure divides by a very small number and should not be trusted. thin data means one side has too few matches in the model's history for its rating to mean anything; the huge edge shown is the model's ignorance, not the market's mistake.
Goal markets in AUT1
| Match | Market | Pick | Model | Fair | Book | EV | Stake |
|---|
| Wolfsberger ACvRed Bull Salzburg | Totals | Over3.5 | 34.3% | 2.91 | 7.27 | +149.4% | 3.00% |
| Austria ViennavLask Linz | Totals | Over3.5 | 32.0% | 3.12 | 7.73 | +147.4% | 3.00% |
| Austria ViennavLask Linz | Totals | Over2.5 | 53.4% | 1.87 | 4.13 | +120.5% | — |
| Wolfsberger ACvRed Bull Salzburg | Totals | Over2.5 | 55.8% | 1.79 | 3.70 | +106.6% | — |
| RiedvRapid Vienna | Totals | Over2.5 | 44.9% | 2.22 | 4.59 | +106.4% | 3.00% |
| RiedvRapid Vienna | Totals | Over3.5 | 24.4% | 4.10 | 7.58 | +84.9% | 3.00% |
One row per market per match: the side the model prefers. The two sides of a two-way line are near mirror images, so showing both would double the table without adding anything. Edges are measured against each pair de-vigged on its own, not against the match-winner margin — books load goals markets more heavily, and borrowing the 1X2 overround here would flatter every row.
Ried HOME
v Rapid Vienna AWAY
15:00 · AUT1 · expected goals
Ried 1.20 – 1.27 Rapid Vienna
Ried 31%
· draw 32%
· Rapid Vienna 37%
| Model | Market | Book odds | Edge |
|---|
| Ried | 31.2% | 31.3% | 2.97 | -0.1pp |
| Draw | 32.0% | 28.5% | 3.24 | +3.6pp |
| Rapid Vienna | 36.8% | 40.3% | 2.33 | -3.5pp |
| Over 1.5 | 70.3% | 40.1% | 2.34 | +30.2pp |
| Under 1.5 | 29.7% | 59.9% | 1.57 | -30.2pp |
| Over 2.5 | 44.9% | 22.1% | 4.59 | +22.9pp |
| Under 2.5 | 55.1% | 77.9% | 1.30 | -22.9pp |
| Over 3.5 | 24.4% | 13.4% | 7.58 | +11.1pp |
| Under 3.5 | 75.6% | 86.6% | 1.17 | -11.1pp |
| BTTS Yes | 50.5% | 31.4% | 3.35 | +19.1pp |
| BTTS No | 49.5% | 68.6% | 1.54 | -19.1pp |
Rapid Vienna clean sheet
30%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 13% · 0–1 10% · 1–0 10% · 0–0 9%
Correlated combinations
- Ried win + Ried clean sheet — 19% (fair 5.24); naive multiplication would say 10%, off by +99%
- Rapid Vienna win + Rapid Vienna clean sheet — 21% (fair 4.72); naive multiplication would say 11%, off by +86%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 37% (fair 2.68); naive multiplication would say 23%, off by +64%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 42% (fair 2.39); naive multiplication would say 27%, off by +53%
Wolfsberger AC HOME
v Red Bull Salzburg AWAY
15:00 · AUT1 · expected goals
Wolfsberger AC 1.41 – 1.52 Red Bull Salzburg
Wolfsberger AC 31%
· draw 25%
· Red Bull Salzburg 44%
| Model | Market | Book odds | Edge |
|---|
| Wolfsberger AC | 31.0% | 24.6% | 3.72 | +6.4pp |
| Draw | 25.0% | 24.6% | 3.73 | +0.4pp |
| Red Bull Salzburg | 44.0% | 50.8% | 1.87 | -6.8pp |
| Over 1.5 | 78.5% | 47.2% | 1.99 | +31.3pp |
| Under 1.5 | 21.5% | 52.8% | 1.78 | -31.3pp |
| Over 2.5 | 55.8% | 27.4% | 3.70 | +28.4pp |
| Under 2.5 | 44.2% | 72.6% | 1.40 | -28.4pp |
| Over 3.5 | 34.3% | 14.1% | 7.27 | +20.2pp |
| Under 3.5 | 65.7% | 85.9% | 1.20 | -20.2pp |
| BTTS Yes | 56.7% | 36.3% | 2.99 | +20.4pp |
| BTTS No | 43.3% | 63.7% | 1.70 | -20.4pp |
Wolfsberger AC or draw
56%
draw or Red Bull Salz…
69%
Wolfsberger AC clean sheet
22%
Red Bull Salz… clean sheet
25%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 12% · 1–2 9% · 2–1 8% · 0–1 8%
Correlated combinations
- Wolfsberger AC win + Wolfsberger AC clean sheet — 16% (fair 6.26); naive multiplication would say 8%, off by +112%
- Red Bull Salz… win + Red Bull Salz… clean sheet — 19% (fair 5.35); naive multiplication would say 10%, off by +91%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 32% (fair 3.12); naive multiplication would say 18%, off by +80%
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 18% (fair 5.63); naive multiplication would say 11%, off by +58%
Austria Vienna HOME
v Lask Linz AWAY
17:00 · AUT1 · expected goals
Austria Vienna 1.42 – 1.40 Lask Linz
Austria Vienna 27%
· draw 24%
· Lask Linz 49%
| Model | Market | Book odds | Edge |
|---|
| Austria Vienna | 26.7% | 26.2% | 3.51 | +0.6pp |
| Draw | 23.8% | 25.7% | 3.57 | -1.9pp |
| Lask Linz | 49.5% | 48.2% | 1.97 | +1.3pp |
| Over 1.5 | 76.8% | 43.1% | 2.18 | +33.7pp |
| Under 1.5 | 23.2% | 56.9% | 1.65 | -33.7pp |
| Over 2.5 | 53.4% | 24.8% | 4.13 | +28.6pp |
| Under 2.5 | 46.6% | 75.2% | 1.36 | -28.6pp |
| Over 3.5 | 32.0% | 13.2% | 7.73 | +18.8pp |
| Under 3.5 | 68.0% | 86.8% | 1.18 | -18.8pp |
| BTTS Yes | 55.4% | 33.2% | 3.20 | +22.2pp |
| BTTS No | 44.6% | 66.8% | 1.60 | -22.2pp |
Austria Vienna or draw
51%
Austria Vienna clean sheet
25%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 12% · 2–1 8% · 1–2 8% · 1–0 8%
Correlated combinations
- Lask Linz win + Lask Linz clean sheet — 18% (fair 5.62); naive multiplication would say 9%, off by +100%
- Austria Vienna win + Austria Vienna clean sheet — 18% (fair 5.52); naive multiplication would say 9%, off by +98%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 34% (fair 2.93); naive multiplication would say 20%, off by +73%
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 19% (fair 5.32); naive multiplication would say 12%, off by +55%
Best value in BEL1
| Match | Selection | Model | Fair | Book | EV | Stake |
|---|
| AntwerpvSK Beveren | Antwerp H | 62.1% | 1.61 | 1.85 | +14.7% | 3.00% |
| Zulte WaregemvGenk | Genk A | 48.0% | 2.08 | 2.16 | +3.7% | — |
| GentvKV Mechelen | Draw | 29.6% | 3.38 | 3.48 | +2.8% | — |
| CharleroivOH Leuven | OH Leuven A | 22.7% | 4.40 | 4.38 | -0.5% | — |
| AnderlechtvRAAL La Louvière | Anderlecht H | 57.3% | 1.74 | 1.72 | -1.2% | — |
| AnderlechtvRAAL La Louvière | RAAL La Louvière A | 20.2% | 4.94 | 4.68 | -5.3% | — |
Stake is blank unless a selection clears every gate: positive expected value, at least 5 percentage points of edge over the de-vigged line, and not more than 25 (a disagreement that large is usually the model missing something, not an opportunity). Most rows will be blank most days. Selections marked longshot are below 10% — their EV figure divides by a very small number and should not be trusted. thin data means one side has too few matches in the model's history for its rating to mean anything; the huge edge shown is the model's ignorance, not the market's mistake.
Goal markets in BEL1
| Match | Market | Pick | Model | Fair | Book | EV | Stake |
|---|
| GentvKV Mechelen | Totals | Over3.5 | 33.4% | 2.99 | 8.00 | +167.4% | 3.00% |
| Zulte WaregemvGenk | Totals | Over3.5 | 36.6% | 2.73 | 7.05 | +157.9% | 3.00% |
| AntwerpvSK Beveren | Totals | Over3.5 | 27.2% | 3.68 | 9.46 | +156.9% | 3.00% |
| AnderlechtvRAAL La Louvière | Totals | Over3.5 | 29.2% | 3.43 | 8.50 | +148.0% | 3.00% |
| AntwerpvSK Beveren | Totals | Over2.5 | 48.1% | 2.08 | 4.33 | +108.6% | 3.00% |
| GentvKV Mechelen | Totals | Over2.5 | 54.9% | 1.82 | 3.71 | +103.6% | — |
One row per market per match: the side the model prefers. The two sides of a two-way line are near mirror images, so showing both would double the table without adding anything. Edges are measured against each pair de-vigged on its own, not against the match-winner margin — books load goals markets more heavily, and borrowing the 1X2 overround here would flatter every row.
Gent HOME
v KV Mechelen AWAY
11:30 · BEL1 · expected goals
Gent 1.69 – 1.19 KV Mechelen
Gent 46%
· draw 30%
· KV Mechelen 25%
| Model | Market | Book odds | Edge |
|---|
| Gent | 45.9% | 48.6% | 1.95 | -2.7pp |
| Draw | 29.6% | 26.4% | 3.48 | +3.2pp |
| KV Mechelen | 24.5% | 25.0% | 3.66 | -0.5pp |
| Over 1.5 | 77.9% | 41.5% | 2.27 | +36.4pp |
| Under 1.5 | 22.1% | 58.5% | 1.61 | -36.4pp |
| Over 2.5 | 54.9% | 27.4% | 3.71 | +27.4pp |
| Under 2.5 | 45.1% | 72.6% | 1.40 | -27.4pp |
| Over 3.5 | 33.4% | 12.7% | 8.00 | +20.8pp |
| Under 3.5 | 66.6% | 87.3% | 1.16 | -20.8pp |
| BTTS Yes | 55.2% | 31.5% | 3.37 | +23.7pp |
| BTTS No | 44.8% | 68.5% | 1.55 | -23.7pp |
KV Mechelen clean sheet
18%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 12% · 2–1 10% · 1–0 9% · 2–0 8%
Correlated combinations
- KV Mechelen win + KV Mechelen clean sheet — 12% (fair 8.10); naive multiplication would say 5%, off by +154%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 33% (fair 3.02); naive multiplication would say 19%, off by +73%
- Gent win + Gent clean sheet — 24% (fair 4.12); naive multiplication would say 15%, off by +65%
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 18% (fair 5.62); naive multiplication would say 11%, off by +59%
Charleroi HOME
v OH Leuven AWAY
14:00 · BEL1 · expected goals
Charleroi 1.49 – 0.92 OH Leuven
Charleroi 51%
· draw 26%
· OH Leuven 23%
| Model | Market | Book odds | Edge |
|---|
| Charleroi | 51.5% | 53.5% | 1.78 | -2.0pp |
| Draw | 25.8% | 25.9% | 3.55 | -0.1pp |
| OH Leuven | 22.7% | 20.6% | 4.38 | +2.1pp |
| Over 1.5 | 69.1% | 39.4% | 2.38 | +29.7pp |
| Under 1.5 | 30.9% | 60.6% | 1.55 | -29.7pp |
| Over 2.5 | 43.5% | 25.0% | 4.06 | +18.5pp |
| Under 2.5 | 56.5% | 75.0% | 1.35 | -18.5pp |
| Over 3.5 | 23.2% | 11.6% | 8.71 | +11.7pp |
| Under 3.5 | 76.8% | 88.4% | 1.14 | -11.7pp |
| BTTS Yes | 47.9% | 34.1% | 2.87 | +13.8pp |
| BTTS No | 52.1% | 65.9% | 1.48 | -13.8pp |
Likeliest scores: 1–0 13% · 1–1 13% · 2–0 10% · 0–0 10%
Correlated combinations
- OH Leuven win + OH Leuven clean sheet — 13% (fair 7.71); naive multiplication would say 5%, off by +155%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 34% (fair 2.92); naive multiplication would say 20%, off by +68%
- Charleroi win + Charleroi clean sheet — 31% (fair 3.28); naive multiplication would say 20%, off by +52%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 44% (fair 2.28); naive multiplication would say 30%, off by +46%
Zulte Waregem HOME
v Genk AWAY
14:00 · BEL1 · expected goals
Zulte Waregem 1.42 – 1.62 Genk
Zulte Waregem 26%
· draw 26%
· Genk 48%
| Model | Market | Book odds | Edge |
|---|
| Zulte Waregem | 26.1% | 30.2% | 3.07 | -4.1pp |
| Draw | 25.9% | 26.2% | 3.50 | -0.4pp |
| Genk | 48.0% | 43.6% | 2.16 | +4.4pp |
| Over 1.5 | 80.1% | 44.6% | 2.11 | +35.5pp |
| Under 1.5 | 19.9% | 55.4% | 1.70 | -35.5pp |
| Over 2.5 | 58.1% | 30.3% | 3.39 | +27.8pp |
| Under 2.5 | 41.9% | 69.7% | 1.47 | -27.8pp |
| Over 3.5 | 36.6% | 14.5% | 7.05 | +22.1pp |
| Under 3.5 | 63.4% | 85.5% | 1.20 | -22.1pp |
| BTTS Yes | 57.9% | 34.7% | 3.10 | +23.2pp |
| BTTS No | 42.1% | 65.3% | 1.65 | -23.2pp |
Zulte Waregem clean sheet
20%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 11% · 1–2 9% · 2–1 8% · 0–1 7%
Correlated combinations
- Zulte Waregem win + Zulte Waregem clean sheet — 15% (fair 6.85); naive multiplication would say 7%, off by +121%
- Genk win + Genk clean sheet — 19% (fair 5.28); naive multiplication would say 10%, off by +87%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 30% (fair 3.32); naive multiplication would say 16%, off by +86%
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 17% (fair 5.96); naive multiplication would say 10%, off by +62%
Anderlecht HOME
v RAAL La Louvière AWAY
16:30 · BEL1 · expected goals
Anderlecht 1.80 – 0.89 RAAL La Louvière
Anderlecht 57%
· draw 22%
· RAAL La Louvière 20%
| Model | Market | Book odds | Edge |
|---|
| Anderlecht | 57.3% | 55.3% | 1.72 | +2.0pp |
| Draw | 22.4% | 25.4% | 3.62 | -3.0pp |
| RAAL La Louvière | 20.2% | 19.3% | 4.68 | +1.0pp |
| Over 1.5 | 74.5% | 40.3% | 2.33 | +34.2pp |
| Under 1.5 | 25.5% | 59.7% | 1.58 | -34.2pp |
| Over 2.5 | 50.4% | 26.0% | 3.91 | +24.4pp |
| Under 2.5 | 49.6% | 74.0% | 1.37 | -24.4pp |
| Over 3.5 | 29.2% | 11.9% | 8.50 | +17.3pp |
| Under 3.5 | 70.8% | 88.1% | 1.15 | -17.3pp |
| BTTS Yes | 49.7% | 34.6% | 2.83 | +15.1pp |
| BTTS No | 50.3% | 65.4% | 1.50 | -15.1pp |
draw or RAAL La Louvi…
43%
Anderlecht clean sheet
41%
RAAL La Louvi… clean sheet
16%
Likeliest scores: 1–0 12% · 1–1 11% · 2–0 11% · 2–1 10%
Correlated combinations
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 19% (fair 5.39); naive multiplication would say 12%, off by +58%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 38% (fair 2.61); naive multiplication would say 25%, off by +53%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 38% (fair 2.61); naive multiplication would say 25%, off by +53%
- Anderlecht win + Anderlecht clean sheet — 34% (fair 2.95); naive multiplication would say 24%, off by +41%
Antwerp HOME
v SK Beveren AWAY
17:15 · BEL1 · expected goals
Antwerp 1.61 – 0.99 SK Beveren
Antwerp 62%
· draw 22%
· SK Beveren 16%
| Model | Market | Book odds | Edge |
|---|
| Antwerp | 62.1% | 51.4% | 1.85 | +10.7pp |
| Draw | 22.2% | 26.6% | 3.46 | -4.4pp |
| SK Beveren | 15.7% | 22.0% | 4.12 | -6.4pp |
| Over 1.5 | 72.8% | 37.9% | 2.48 | +35.0pp |
| Under 1.5 | 27.2% | 62.1% | 1.51 | -35.0pp |
| Over 2.5 | 48.1% | 23.3% | 4.33 | +24.9pp |
| Under 2.5 | 51.9% | 76.7% | 1.31 | -24.9pp |
| Over 3.5 | 27.2% | 10.6% | 9.46 | +16.6pp |
| Under 3.5 | 72.8% | 89.4% | 1.12 | -16.6pp |
| BTTS Yes | 50.5% | 32.6% | 3.00 | +17.9pp |
| BTTS No | 49.5% | 67.4% | 1.45 | -17.9pp |
SK Beveren clean sheet
20%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 12% · 1–0 11% · 2–0 10% · 2–1 10%
Correlated combinations
- SK Beveren win + SK Beveren clean sheet — 12% (fair 8.30); naive multiplication would say 5%, off by +165%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 38% (fair 2.61); naive multiplication would say 24%, off by +57%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 40% (fair 2.53); naive multiplication would say 26%, off by +55%
- Antwerp win + Antwerp clean sheet — 29% (fair 3.41); naive multiplication would say 19%, off by +53%
Best value in BRA1
| Match | Selection | Model | Fair | Book | EV | Stake |
|---|
| CruzeirovMirassol | Mirassol A | 33.5% | 2.99 | 5.19 | +73.7% | 3.00% |
| RB BragantinovCorinthians | Corinthians A | 37.3% | 2.68 | 3.47 | +29.1% | 2.95% |
| PalmeirasvInternacional | Internacional A | 18.0% | 5.56 | 5.95 | +6.9% | — |
| BahiavVasco DA Gama | Bahia H | 53.3% | 1.88 | 1.98 | +5.2% | 1.34% |
| FlamengovVitoria | Draw | 17.8% | 5.61 | 5.87 | +4.7% | — |
| SantosvAtletico Paranaense | Atletico Paranaense A | 27.9% | 3.58 | 3.54 | -1.3% | — |
Stake is blank unless a selection clears every gate: positive expected value, at least 5 percentage points of edge over the de-vigged line, and not more than 25 (a disagreement that large is usually the model missing something, not an opportunity). Most rows will be blank most days. Selections marked longshot are below 10% — their EV figure divides by a very small number and should not be trusted. thin data means one side has too few matches in the model's history for its rating to mean anything; the huge edge shown is the model's ignorance, not the market's mistake.
Goal markets in BRA1
| Match | Market | Pick | Model | Fair | Book | EV | Stake |
|---|
| BahiavVasco DA Gama | Totals | Over3.5 | 33.7% | 2.97 | 8.33 | +180.5% | 3.00% |
| RB BragantinovCorinthians | Totals | Over2.5 | 45.5% | 2.20 | 5.49 | +149.6% | — |
| BahiavVasco DA Gama | Totals | Over2.5 | 55.1% | 1.81 | 4.41 | +143.2% | — |
| FlamengovVitoria | Totals | Over3.5 | 31.8% | 3.14 | 7.47 | +137.8% | 3.00% |
| PalmeirasvInternacional | Totals | Over2.5 | 50.4% | 1.98 | 4.71 | +137.5% | — |
| PalmeirasvInternacional | Totals | Over3.5 | 29.2% | 3.42 | 7.91 | +131.2% | 3.00% |
One row per market per match: the side the model prefers. The two sides of a two-way line are near mirror images, so showing both would double the table without adding anything. Edges are measured against each pair de-vigged on its own, not against the match-winner margin — books load goals markets more heavily, and borrowing the 1X2 overround here would flatter every row.
Cruzeiro HOME
v Mirassol AWAY
14:00 · BRA1 · expected goals
Cruzeiro 1.21 – 1.08 Mirassol
Cruzeiro 40%
· draw 26%
· Mirassol 33%
| Model | Market | Book odds | Edge |
|---|
| Cruzeiro | 40.3% | 56.7% | 1.69 | -16.4pp |
| Draw | 26.2% | 25.9% | 3.57 | +0.3pp |
| Mirassol | 33.5% | 17.4% | 5.19 | +16.1pp |
| Over 1.5 | 66.6% | 40.3% | 2.33 | +26.3pp |
| Under 1.5 | 33.4% | 59.7% | 1.58 | -26.3pp |
| Over 2.5 | 40.6% | 20.9% | 4.71 | +19.6pp |
| Under 2.5 | 59.4% | 79.1% | 1.25 | -19.6pp |
| Over 3.5 | 20.8% | 12.7% | 7.98 | +8.2pp |
| Under 3.5 | 79.2% | 87.3% | 1.16 | -8.2pp |
| BTTS Yes | 47.8% | 33.5% | 2.95 | +14.4pp |
| BTTS No | 52.2% | 66.5% | 1.48 | -14.4pp |
Likeliest scores: 1–1 14% · 1–0 12% · 0–0 11% · 0–1 10%
Correlated combinations
- Mirassol win + Mirassol clean sheet — 19% (fair 5.21); naive multiplication would say 10%, off by +100%
- Cruzeiro win + Cruzeiro clean sheet — 23% (fair 4.31); naive multiplication would say 13%, off by +78%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 33% (fair 3.02); naive multiplication would say 19%, off by +76%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 46% (fair 2.17); naive multiplication would say 32%, off by +45%
Bahia HOME
v Vasco DA Gama AWAY
19:00 · BRA1 · expected goals
Bahia 1.71 – 1.19 Vasco DA Gama
Bahia 53%
· draw 25%
· Vasco DA Gama 21%
| Model | Market | Book odds | Edge |
|---|
| Bahia | 53.3% | 48.1% | 1.98 | +5.1pp |
| Draw | 25.3% | 27.0% | 3.43 | -1.7pp |
| Vasco DA Gama | 21.4% | 24.8% | 3.71 | -3.4pp |
| Over 1.5 | 78.1% | 42.3% | 2.22 | +35.8pp |
| Under 1.5 | 21.9% | 57.7% | 1.63 | -35.8pp |
| Over 2.5 | 55.1% | 22.5% | 4.41 | +32.6pp |
| Under 2.5 | 44.9% | 77.5% | 1.28 | -32.6pp |
| Over 3.5 | 33.7% | 12.2% | 8.33 | +21.5pp |
| Under 3.5 | 66.3% | 87.8% | 1.15 | -21.5pp |
| BTTS Yes | 55.3% | 31.5% | 3.39 | +23.8pp |
| BTTS No | 44.7% | 68.5% | 1.56 | -23.8pp |
Vasco DA Gama clean sheet
18%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 12% · 2–1 10% · 1–0 9% · 2–0 8%
Correlated combinations
- Vasco DA Gama win + Vasco DA Gama clean sheet — 12% (fair 8.21); naive multiplication would say 5%, off by +155%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 33% (fair 3.04); naive multiplication would say 19%, off by +74%
- Bahia win + Bahia clean sheet — 24% (fair 4.11); naive multiplication would say 15%, off by +64%
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 18% (fair 5.66); naive multiplication would say 11%, off by +59%
Palmeiras HOME
v Internacional AWAY
19:00 · BRA1 · expected goals
Palmeiras 1.83 – 0.86 Internacional
Palmeiras 58%
· draw 24%
· Internacional 18%
| Model | Market | Book odds | Edge |
|---|
| Palmeiras | 57.9% | 61.0% | 1.57 | -3.1pp |
| Draw | 24.1% | 24.1% | 3.83 | +0.0pp |
| Internacional | 18.0% | 14.9% | 5.95 | +3.0pp |
| Over 1.5 | 74.6% | 40.3% | 2.33 | +34.2pp |
| Under 1.5 | 25.4% | 59.7% | 1.57 | -34.2pp |
| Over 2.5 | 50.4% | 21.0% | 4.71 | +29.5pp |
| Under 2.5 | 49.6% | 79.0% | 1.25 | -29.5pp |
| Over 3.5 | 29.2% | 12.8% | 7.91 | +16.4pp |
| Under 3.5 | 70.8% | 87.2% | 1.16 | -16.4pp |
| BTTS Yes | 49.3% | 31.8% | 3.08 | +17.5pp |
| BTTS No | 50.7% | 68.2% | 1.43 | -17.5pp |
Internacional clean sheet
16%
Likeliest scores: 1–0 12% · 2–0 11% · 1–1 11% · 2–1 10%
Correlated combinations
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 18% (fair 5.45); naive multiplication would say 12%, off by +58%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 38% (fair 2.64); naive multiplication would say 25%, off by +53%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 38% (fair 2.60); naive multiplication would say 25%, off by +52%
- Palmeiras win + Palmeiras clean sheet — 35% (fair 2.86); naive multiplication would say 25%, off by +39%
RB Bragantino HOME
v Corinthians AWAY
21:30 · BRA1 · expected goals
RB Bragantino 1.30 – 1.19 Corinthians
RB Bragantino 35%
· draw 27%
· Corinthians 37%
| Model | Market | Book odds | Edge |
|---|
| RB Bragantino | 35.3% | 43.7% | 2.17 | -8.4pp |
| Draw | 27.4% | 29.5% | 3.16 | -2.1pp |
| Corinthians | 37.3% | 26.8% | 3.47 | +10.5pp |
| Over 1.5 | 70.8% | 36.0% | 2.60 | +34.7pp |
| Under 1.5 | 29.2% | 64.0% | 1.47 | -34.7pp |
| Over 2.5 | 45.5% | 17.8% | 5.49 | +27.7pp |
| Under 2.5 | 54.5% | 82.2% | 1.19 | -27.7pp |
| Over 3.5 | 24.9% | 11.6% | 8.60 | +13.3pp |
| Under 3.5 | 75.1% | 88.4% | 1.13 | -13.3pp |
| BTTS Yes | 50.8% | 32.2% | 3.05 | +18.6pp |
| BTTS No | 49.2% | 67.8% | 1.45 | -18.6pp |
RB Bragantino clean sheet
30%
Corinthians clean sheet
27%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 13% · 1–0 10% · 0–1 9% · 0–0 9%
Correlated combinations
- Corinthians win + Corinthians clean sheet — 18% (fair 5.41); naive multiplication would say 9%, off by +102%
- RB Bragantino win + RB Bragantino clean sheet — 22% (fair 4.64); naive multiplication would say 12%, off by +84%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 38% (fair 2.65); naive multiplication would say 23%, off by +63%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 41% (fair 2.42); naive multiplication would say 27%, off by +55%
Santos HOME
v Atletico Paranaense AWAY
21:30 · BRA1 · expected goals
Santos 1.29 – 1.09 Atletico Paranaense
Santos 45%
· draw 27%
· Atletico Paranaense 28%
| Model | Market | Book odds | Edge |
|---|
| Santos | 45.0% | 45.1% | 2.10 | -0.1pp |
| Draw | 27.1% | 28.7% | 3.24 | -1.6pp |
| Atletico Paranaense | 27.9% | 26.2% | 3.54 | +1.7pp |
| Over 1.5 | 68.6% | 38.8% | 2.41 | +29.8pp |
| Under 1.5 | 31.4% | 61.2% | 1.53 | -29.8pp |
| Over 2.5 | 42.9% | 19.5% | 5.03 | +23.4pp |
| Under 2.5 | 57.1% | 80.5% | 1.22 | -23.4pp |
| Over 3.5 | 22.7% | 11.9% | 8.43 | +10.8pp |
| Under 3.5 | 77.3% | 88.1% | 1.14 | -10.8pp |
| BTTS Yes | 49.1% | 34.6% | 2.85 | +14.6pp |
| BTTS No | 50.9% | 65.4% | 1.51 | -14.6pp |
draw or Atletico Para…
55%
Atletico Para… clean sheet
28%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 14% · 1–0 11% · 0–0 10% · 0–1 10%
Correlated combinations
- Atletico Para… win + Atletico Para… clean sheet — 18% (fair 5.63); naive multiplication would say 8%, off by +109%
- Santos win + Santos clean sheet — 24% (fair 4.21); naive multiplication would say 14%, off by +75%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 35% (fair 2.84); naive multiplication would say 21%, off by +69%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 44% (fair 2.28); naive multiplication would say 29%, off by +49%
Flamengo HOME
v Vitoria AWAY
22:30 · BRA1 · expected goals
Flamengo 2.06 – 0.76 Vitoria
Flamengo 73%
· draw 18%
· Vitoria 9%
| Model | Market | Book odds | Edge |
|---|
| Flamengo | 72.9% | 78.2% | 1.23 | -5.3pp |
| Draw | 17.8% | 15.1% | 5.87 | +2.7pp |
| Vitoria | 9.3% | 6.6% | 12.07 | +2.6pp |
| Over 1.5 | 76.6% | 48.2% | 1.94 | +28.4pp |
| Under 1.5 | 23.4% | 51.8% | 1.81 | -28.4pp |
| Over 2.5 | 53.2% | 26.0% | 3.76 | +27.3pp |
| Under 2.5 | 46.8% | 74.0% | 1.32 | -27.3pp |
| Over 3.5 | 31.8% | 13.8% | 7.47 | +18.0pp |
| Under 3.5 | 68.2% | 86.2% | 1.20 | -18.0pp |
| BTTS Yes | 47.6% | 29.4% | 3.29 | +18.3pp |
| BTTS No | 52.4% | 70.6% | 1.37 | -18.3pp |
Likeliest scores: 2–0 13% · 1–0 12% · 1–1 10% · 2–1 10%
Correlated combinations
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 16% (fair 6.21); naive multiplication would say 10%, off by +69%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 37% (fair 2.71); naive multiplication would say 25%, off by +48%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 37% (fair 2.71); naive multiplication would say 25%, off by +48%
- Flamengo win + Flamengo clean sheet — 41% (fair 2.46); naive multiplication would say 32%, off by +28%
Best value in DEN1
| Match | Selection | Model | Fair | Book | EV | Stake |
|---|
| Randers FCvLyngby | Randers FC H | 52.0% | 1.92 | 2.23 | +15.8% | 3.00% |
| AC HorsensvBrondby | Draw | 28.6% | 3.50 | 3.58 | +2.5% | — |
| AC HorsensvBrondby | AC Horsens H | 22.0% | 4.54 | 4.43 | -2.3% | — |
| Randers FCvLyngby | Draw | 26.1% | 3.82 | 3.45 | -9.8% | — |
| AC HorsensvBrondby | Brondby A | 49.4% | 2.03 | 1.74 | -13.9% | — |
| Randers FCvLyngby | Lyngby A | 21.9% | 4.57 | 3.00 | -34.5% | — |
Stake is blank unless a selection clears every gate: positive expected value, at least 5 percentage points of edge over the de-vigged line, and not more than 25 (a disagreement that large is usually the model missing something, not an opportunity). Most rows will be blank most days. Selections marked longshot are below 10% — their EV figure divides by a very small number and should not be trusted. thin data means one side has too few matches in the model's history for its rating to mean anything; the huge edge shown is the model's ignorance, not the market's mistake.
Goal markets in DEN1
| Match | Market | Pick | Model | Fair | Book | EV | Stake |
|---|
| AC HorsensvBrondby | Totals | Over3.5 | 28.2% | 3.54 | 8.72 | +146.0% | 3.00% |
| AC HorsensvBrondby | Totals | Over2.5 | 49.3% | 2.03 | 3.86 | +90.6% | 3.00% |
| AC HorsensvBrondby | BTTS | Yes— | 52.2% | 1.92 | 3.35 | +74.9% | 3.00% |
| Randers FCvLyngby | Totals | Over3.5 | 22.5% | 4.44 | 7.52 | +69.3% | 2.66% |
| AC HorsensvBrondby | Totals | Over1.5 | 73.8% | 1.36 | 2.29 | +69.1% | — |
| Randers FCvLyngby | Totals | Over2.5 | 42.6% | 2.34 | 3.48 | +48.6% | 3.00% |
One row per market per match: the side the model prefers. The two sides of a two-way line are near mirror images, so showing both would double the table without adding anything. Edges are measured against each pair de-vigged on its own, not against the match-winner margin — books load goals markets more heavily, and borrowing the 1X2 overround here would flatter every row.
Randers FC HOME
v Lyngby AWAY
14:00 · DEN1 · expected goals
Randers FC 1.45 – 0.93 Lyngby
Randers FC 52%
· draw 26%
· Lyngby 22%
| Model | Market | Book odds | Edge |
|---|
| Randers FC | 52.0% | 42.3% | 2.23 | +9.7pp |
| Draw | 26.1% | 26.7% | 3.45 | -0.5pp |
| Lyngby | 21.9% | 31.0% | 3.00 | -9.1pp |
| Over 1.5 | 68.4% | 44.3% | 2.13 | +24.0pp |
| Under 1.5 | 31.6% | 55.7% | 1.70 | -24.0pp |
| Over 2.5 | 42.6% | 29.5% | 3.48 | +13.1pp |
| Under 2.5 | 57.4% | 70.5% | 1.46 | -13.1pp |
| Over 3.5 | 22.5% | 13.7% | 7.52 | +8.8pp |
| Under 3.5 | 77.5% | 86.3% | 1.19 | -8.8pp |
| BTTS Yes | 47.7% | 36.3% | 3.04 | +11.4pp |
| BTTS No | 52.3% | 63.7% | 1.73 | -11.4pp |
Randers FC clean sheet
40%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 13% · 1–0 13% · 0–0 10% · 2–0 10%
Correlated combinations
- Lyngby win + Lyngby clean sheet — 14% (fair 7.32); naive multiplication would say 6%, off by +147%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 34% (fair 2.97); naive multiplication would say 20%, off by +70%
- Randers FC win + Randers FC clean sheet — 30% (fair 3.36); naive multiplication would say 19%, off by +54%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 45% (fair 2.24); naive multiplication would say 31%, off by +45%
AC Horsens HOME
v Brondby AWAY
16:00 · DEN1 · expected goals
AC Horsens 1.11 – 1.54 Brondby
AC Horsens 22%
· draw 29%
· Brondby 49%
| Model | Market | Book odds | Edge |
|---|
| AC Horsens | 22.0% | 20.2% | 4.43 | +1.8pp |
| Draw | 28.6% | 25.5% | 3.58 | +3.1pp |
| Brondby | 49.4% | 54.3% | 1.74 | -5.0pp |
| Over 1.5 | 73.8% | 40.9% | 2.29 | +32.8pp |
| Under 1.5 | 26.2% | 59.1% | 1.59 | -32.8pp |
| Over 2.5 | 49.3% | 26.3% | 3.86 | +23.0pp |
| Under 2.5 | 50.7% | 73.7% | 1.38 | -23.0pp |
| Over 3.5 | 28.2% | 11.6% | 8.72 | +16.6pp |
| Under 3.5 | 71.8% | 88.4% | 1.14 | -16.6pp |
| BTTS Yes | 52.2% | 31.8% | 3.35 | +20.4pp |
| BTTS No | 47.8% | 68.2% | 1.57 | -20.4pp |
AC Horsens clean sheet
22%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 13% · 0–1 10% · 1–2 9% · 0–2 8%
Correlated combinations
- AC Horsens win + AC Horsens clean sheet — 14% (fair 7.18); naive multiplication would say 6%, off by +140%
- Brondby win + Brondby clean sheet — 25% (fair 3.95); naive multiplication would say 15%, off by +65%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 38% (fair 2.62); naive multiplication would say 24%, off by +60%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 41% (fair 2.47); naive multiplication would say 26%, off by +55%
Best value in EFL
| Match | Selection | Model | Fair | Book | EV | Stake |
|---|
| Mansfield TownvSheffield Utd | Mansfield Town H thin data | 54.2% | 1.85 | 3.86 | +109.2% | — |
| Mansfield TownvSheffield Utd | Draw thin data | 27.2% | 3.68 | 3.55 | -3.5% | — |
| Mansfield TownvSheffield Utd | Sheffield Utd A thin data | 18.6% | 5.36 | 1.87 | -65.1% | — |
Stake is blank unless a selection clears every gate: positive expected value, at least 5 percentage points of edge over the de-vigged line, and not more than 25 (a disagreement that large is usually the model missing something, not an opportunity). Most rows will be blank most days. Selections marked longshot are below 10% — their EV figure divides by a very small number and should not be trusted. thin data means one side has too few matches in the model's history for its rating to mean anything; the huge edge shown is the model's ignorance, not the market's mistake.
Goal markets in EFL
| Match | Market | Pick | Model | Fair | Book | EV | Stake |
|---|
| Mansfield TownvSheffield Utd | Totals | Over3.5 thin data | 31.1% | 3.22 | 8.04 | +149.8% | — |
| Mansfield TownvSheffield Utd | Totals | Over2.5 thin data | 52.4% | 1.91 | 4.49 | +135.3% | — |
| Mansfield TownvSheffield Utd | Totals | Over1.5 thin data | 76.1% | 1.31 | 2.19 | +66.3% | — |
| Mansfield TownvSheffield Utd | BTTS | Yes— thin data | 52.4% | 1.91 | 2.66 | +39.6% | — |
One row per market per match: the side the model prefers. The two sides of a two-way line are near mirror images, so showing both would double the table without adding anything. Edges are measured against each pair de-vigged on its own, not against the match-winner margin — books load goals markets more heavily, and borrowing the 1X2 overround here would flatter every row.
Mansfield Town HOME
v Sheffield Utd AWAY
15:00 · EFL · expected goals
Mansfield Town 1.75 – 1.02 Sheffield Utd
Thin data: Mansfield Town 11 matches, Sheffield Utd 125 in this model's history. Ratings that sparse sit near the league average, which flatters the weaker side badly when the two come from different divisions. Shown for completeness, not as a forecast.
Mansfield Town 54%
· draw 27%
· Sheffield Utd 19%
| Model | Market | Book odds | Edge |
|---|
| Mansfield Town | 54.2% | 23.6% | 3.86 | +30.6pp |
| Draw | 27.2% | 25.8% | 3.55 | +1.4pp |
| Sheffield Utd | 18.6% | 50.6% | 1.87 | -32.0pp |
| Over 1.5 | 76.1% | 42.9% | 2.19 | +33.2pp |
| Under 1.5 | 23.9% | 57.1% | 1.64 | -33.2pp |
| Over 2.5 | 52.4% | 22.1% | 4.49 | +30.3pp |
| Under 2.5 | 47.6% | 77.9% | 1.27 | -30.3pp |
| Over 3.5 | 31.1% | 12.6% | 8.04 | +18.5pp |
| Under 3.5 | 68.9% | 87.4% | 1.16 | -18.5pp |
| BTTS Yes | 52.4% | 37.1% | 2.66 | +15.3pp |
| BTTS No | 47.6% | 62.9% | 1.57 | -15.3pp |
Mansfield Town or draw
81%
Mansfield Town clean sheet
36%
Sheffield Utd clean sheet
17%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 12% · 1–0 10% · 2–1 10% · 2–0 10%
Correlated combinations
- Sheffield Utd win + Sheffield Utd clean sheet — 11% (fair 9.43); naive multiplication would say 4%, off by +185%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 36% (fair 2.79); naive multiplication would say 22%, off by +62%
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 18% (fair 5.46); naive multiplication would say 12%, off by +58%
- Mansfield Town win + Mansfield Town clean sheet — 29% (fair 3.42); naive multiplication would say 19%, off by +51%
Best value in ITCUP
| Match | Selection | Model | Fair | Book | EV | Stake |
|---|
| BeneventovRavenna | Ravenna A thin data | 32.9% | 3.04 | 5.08 | +66.9% | — |
| BeneventovRavenna | Draw thin data | 26.7% | 3.75 | 3.67 | -2.2% | — |
| BeneventovRavenna | Benevento H thin data | 40.5% | 2.47 | 1.65 | -33.3% | — |
Stake is blank unless a selection clears every gate: positive expected value, at least 5 percentage points of edge over the de-vigged line, and not more than 25 (a disagreement that large is usually the model missing something, not an opportunity). Most rows will be blank most days. Selections marked longshot are below 10% — their EV figure divides by a very small number and should not be trusted. thin data means one side has too few matches in the model's history for its rating to mean anything; the huge edge shown is the model's ignorance, not the market's mistake.
Goal markets in ITCUP
| Match | Market | Pick | Model | Fair | Book | EV | Stake |
|---|
| BeneventovRavenna | Totals | Over2.5 thin data | 51.4% | 1.94 | 4.99 | +156.6% | — |
| BeneventovRavenna | Totals | Over3.5 thin data | 30.2% | 3.32 | 7.11 | +114.2% | — |
| BeneventovRavenna | Totals | Over1.5 thin data | 75.4% | 1.33 | 2.43 | +82.8% | — |
| BeneventovRavenna | BTTS | Yes— thin data | 54.1% | 1.85 | 3.25 | +76.1% | — |
One row per market per match: the side the model prefers. The two sides of a two-way line are near mirror images, so showing both would double the table without adding anything. Edges are measured against each pair de-vigged on its own, not against the match-winner margin — books load goals markets more heavily, and borrowing the 1X2 overround here would flatter every row.
Benevento HOME
v Ravenna AWAY
19:00 · ITCUP · expected goals
Benevento 1.47 – 1.26 Ravenna
Thin data: Benevento 43 matches, Ravenna 2 in this model's history. Ratings that sparse sit near the league average, which flatters the weaker side badly when the two come from different divisions. Shown for completeness, not as a forecast.
Benevento 40%
· draw 27%
· Ravenna 33%
| Model | Market | Book odds | Edge |
|---|
| Benevento | 40.5% | 57.7% | 1.65 | -17.2pp |
| Draw | 26.7% | 24.9% | 3.67 | +1.8pp |
| Ravenna | 32.9% | 17.4% | 5.08 | +15.4pp |
| Over 1.5 | 75.4% | 38.6% | 2.43 | +36.8pp |
| Under 1.5 | 24.6% | 61.4% | 1.52 | -36.8pp |
| Over 2.5 | 51.4% | 19.8% | 4.99 | +31.7pp |
| Under 2.5 | 48.6% | 80.2% | 1.23 | -31.7pp |
| Over 3.5 | 30.2% | 14.1% | 7.11 | +16.0pp |
| Under 3.5 | 69.8% | 85.9% | 1.17 | -16.0pp |
| BTTS Yes | 54.1% | 29.8% | 3.25 | +24.3pp |
| BTTS No | 45.9% | 70.2% | 1.38 | -24.3pp |
Likeliest scores: 1–1 13% · 1–0 9% · 2–1 9% · 0–1 8%
Correlated combinations
- Ravenna win + Ravenna clean sheet — 16% (fair 6.26); naive multiplication would say 7%, off by +117%
- Benevento win + Benevento clean sheet — 21% (fair 4.71); naive multiplication would say 12%, off by +81%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 36% (fair 2.78); naive multiplication would say 21%, off by +68%
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 20% (fair 5.11); naive multiplication would say 13%, off by +52%
Best value in J1
| Match | Selection | Model | Fair | Book | EV | Stake |
|---|
| Tokyo VerdyvKawasaki Frontale | Kawasaki Frontale A | 44.7% | 2.23 | 2.32 | +3.6% | — |
| Tokyo VerdyvKawasaki Frontale | Tokyo Verdy H | 27.5% | 3.63 | 3.15 | -13.1% | — |
| Tokyo VerdyvKawasaki Frontale | Draw | 27.7% | 3.61 | 3.11 | -13.7% | — |
Stake is blank unless a selection clears every gate: positive expected value, at least 5 percentage points of edge over the de-vigged line, and not more than 25 (a disagreement that large is usually the model missing something, not an opportunity). Most rows will be blank most days. Selections marked longshot are below 10% — their EV figure divides by a very small number and should not be trusted. thin data means one side has too few matches in the model's history for its rating to mean anything; the huge edge shown is the model's ignorance, not the market's mistake.
Goal markets in J1
| Match | Market | Pick | Model | Fair | Book | EV | Stake |
|---|
| Tokyo VerdyvKawasaki Frontale | Totals | Over2.5 | 50.2% | 1.99 | 4.94 | +148.1% | — |
| Tokyo VerdyvKawasaki Frontale | Totals | Over3.5 | 29.0% | 3.45 | 8.32 | +141.3% | 3.00% |
| Tokyo VerdyvKawasaki Frontale | Totals | Over1.5 | 74.4% | 1.34 | 2.61 | +94.2% | — |
| Tokyo VerdyvKawasaki Frontale | BTTS | Yes— | 53.3% | 1.88 | 2.96 | +57.6% | 3.00% |
One row per market per match: the side the model prefers. The two sides of a two-way line are near mirror images, so showing both would double the table without adding anything. Edges are measured against each pair de-vigged on its own, not against the match-winner margin — books load goals markets more heavily, and borrowing the 1X2 overround here would flatter every row.
Tokyo Verdy HOME
v Kawasaki Frontale AWAY
09:00 · J1 · expected goals
Tokyo Verdy 1.22 – 1.46 Kawasaki Frontale
Tokyo Verdy 28%
· draw 28%
· Kawasaki Frontale 45%
| Model | Market | Book odds | Edge |
|---|
| Tokyo Verdy | 27.5% | 29.4% | 3.15 | -1.9pp |
| Draw | 27.7% | 29.8% | 3.11 | -2.1pp |
| Kawasaki Frontale | 44.7% | 40.7% | 2.32 | +4.0pp |
| Over 1.5 | 74.4% | 36.0% | 2.61 | +38.5pp |
| Under 1.5 | 25.6% | 64.0% | 1.47 | -38.5pp |
| Over 2.5 | 50.2% | 20.4% | 4.94 | +29.8pp |
| Under 2.5 | 49.8% | 79.6% | 1.27 | -29.8pp |
| Over 3.5 | 29.0% | 11.9% | 8.32 | +17.1pp |
| Under 3.5 | 71.0% | 88.1% | 1.13 | -17.1pp |
| BTTS Yes | 53.3% | 33.1% | 2.96 | +20.2pp |
| BTTS No | 46.7% | 66.9% | 1.46 | -20.2pp |
draw or Kawasaki Fron…
72%
Tokyo Verdy clean sheet
23%
Kawasaki Fron… clean sheet
29%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 13% · 0–1 9% · 1–2 9% · 1–0 8%
Correlated combinations
- Tokyo Verdy win + Tokyo Verdy clean sheet — 16% (fair 6.30); naive multiplication would say 7%, off by +119%
- Kawasaki Fron… win + Kawasaki Fron… clean sheet — 22% (fair 4.52); naive multiplication would say 12%, off by +78%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 37% (fair 2.70); naive multiplication would say 23%, off by +64%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 42% (fair 2.38); naive multiplication would say 27%, off by +53%
Best value in MTN8
| Match | Selection | Model | Fair | Book | EV | Stake |
|---|
| Kaizer ChiefsvGolden Arrows | Golden Arrows A | 23.6% | 4.23 | 5.60 | +32.1% | 1.75% |
| Kaizer ChiefsvGolden Arrows | Draw | 30.9% | 3.23 | 3.37 | +4.3% | — |
| AmazuluvSekhukhune United | Amazulu H | 39.8% | 2.51 | 2.38 | -5.2% | — |
| AmazuluvSekhukhune United | Draw | 30.2% | 3.31 | 3.05 | -8.0% | — |
| AmazuluvSekhukhune United | Sekhukhune United A | 30.0% | 3.33 | 2.87 | -13.9% | — |
| Kaizer ChiefsvGolden Arrows | Kaizer Chiefs H | 45.5% | 2.20 | 1.61 | -26.7% | — |
Stake is blank unless a selection clears every gate: positive expected value, at least 5 percentage points of edge over the de-vigged line, and not more than 25 (a disagreement that large is usually the model missing something, not an opportunity). Most rows will be blank most days. Selections marked longshot are below 10% — their EV figure divides by a very small number and should not be trusted. thin data means one side has too few matches in the model's history for its rating to mean anything; the huge edge shown is the model's ignorance, not the market's mistake.
Goal markets in MTN8
| Match | Market | Pick | Model | Fair | Book | EV | Stake |
|---|
| AmazuluvSekhukhune United | Totals | Over2.5 | 36.6% | 2.73 | 4.73 | +73.3% | 3.00% |
| AmazuluvSekhukhune United | Totals | Over3.5 | 17.8% | 5.61 | 9.56 | +70.6% | 2.06% |
| Kaizer ChiefsvGolden Arrows | Totals | Over2.5 | 35.7% | 2.80 | 4.76 | +69.7% | 3.00% |
| Kaizer ChiefsvGolden Arrows | Totals | Over3.5 | 17.1% | 5.84 | 9.56 | +63.7% | 1.86% |
| AmazuluvSekhukhune United | Totals | Over1.5 | 63.0% | 1.59 | 2.53 | +59.7% | 3.00% |
| Kaizer ChiefsvGolden Arrows | Totals | Over1.5 | 62.1% | 1.61 | 2.55 | +58.6% | 3.00% |
One row per market per match: the side the model prefers. The two sides of a two-way line are near mirror images, so showing both would double the table without adding anything. Edges are measured against each pair de-vigged on its own, not against the match-winner margin — books load goals markets more heavily, and borrowing the 1X2 overround here would flatter every row.
Amazulu HOME
v Sekhukhune United AWAY
13:00 · MTN8 · expected goals
Amazulu 1.15 – 0.99 Sekhukhune United
Amazulu 40%
· draw 30%
· Sekhukhune United 30%
| Model | Market | Book odds | Edge |
|---|
| Amazulu | 39.8% | 38.6% | 2.38 | +1.1pp |
| Draw | 30.2% | 29.7% | 3.05 | +0.5pp |
| Sekhukhune United | 30.0% | 31.7% | 2.87 | -1.7pp |
| Over 1.5 | 63.0% | 38.3% | 2.53 | +24.7pp |
| Under 1.5 | 37.0% | 61.7% | 1.57 | -24.7pp |
| Over 2.5 | 36.6% | 21.5% | 4.73 | +15.2pp |
| Under 2.5 | 63.4% | 78.5% | 1.29 | -15.2pp |
| Over 3.5 | 17.8% | 10.6% | 9.56 | +7.3pp |
| Under 3.5 | 82.2% | 89.4% | 1.13 | -7.3pp |
| BTTS Yes | 45.4% | 31.3% | 3.16 | +14.1pp |
| BTTS No | 54.6% | 68.7% | 1.44 | -14.1pp |
draw or Sekhukhune Un…
60%
Sekhukhune Un… clean sheet
32%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 14% · 1–0 13% · 0–0 12% · 0–1 11%
Correlated combinations
- Sekhukhune Un… win + Sekhukhune Un… clean sheet — 19% (fair 5.20); naive multiplication would say 10%, off by +100%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 30% (fair 3.39); naive multiplication would say 16%, off by +88%
- Amazulu win + Amazulu clean sheet — 25% (fair 4.01); naive multiplication would say 15%, off by +72%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 50% (fair 2.00); naive multiplication would say 36%, off by +38%
Kaizer Chiefs HOME
v Golden Arrows AWAY
16:00 · MTN8 · expected goals
Kaizer Chiefs 1.29 – 0.81 Golden Arrows
Kaizer Chiefs 45%
· draw 31%
· Golden Arrows 24%
| Model | Market | Book odds | Edge |
|---|
| Kaizer Chiefs | 45.5% | 58.2% | 1.61 | -12.8pp |
| Draw | 30.9% | 26.6% | 3.37 | +4.3pp |
| Golden Arrows | 23.6% | 15.1% | 5.60 | +8.5pp |
| Over 1.5 | 62.1% | 38.0% | 2.55 | +24.1pp |
| Under 1.5 | 37.9% | 62.0% | 1.57 | -24.1pp |
| Over 2.5 | 35.7% | 21.4% | 4.76 | +14.3pp |
| Under 2.5 | 64.3% | 78.6% | 1.30 | -14.3pp |
| Over 3.5 | 17.1% | 10.6% | 9.56 | +6.5pp |
| Under 3.5 | 82.9% | 89.4% | 1.13 | -6.5pp |
| BTTS Yes | 43.5% | 27.0% | 3.58 | +16.5pp |
| BTTS No | 56.5% | 73.0% | 1.33 | -16.5pp |
Kaizer Chiefs clean sheet
44%
Golden Arrows clean sheet
28%
Likeliest scores: 1–0 15% · 1–1 13% · 0–0 13% · 2–0 10%
Correlated combinations
- Golden Arrows win + Golden Arrows clean sheet — 15% (fair 6.74); naive multiplication would say 6%, off by +133%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 28% (fair 3.63); naive multiplication would say 14%, off by +92%
- Kaizer Chiefs win + Kaizer Chiefs clean sheet — 32% (fair 3.17); naive multiplication would say 21%, off by +51%
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 26% (fair 3.83); naive multiplication would say 19%, off by +35%
Best value in N1
| Match | Selection | Model | Fair | Book | EV | Stake |
|---|
| GroningenvUtrecht | Utrecht A | 41.5% | 2.41 | 3.04 | +26.3% | 3.00% |
| PEC ZwollevAjax | PEC Zwolle H | 19.9% | 5.02 | 5.50 | +9.5% | — |
| Sparta RotterdamvFeyenoord | Feyenoord A | 61.3% | 1.63 | 1.70 | +4.1% | — |
| HeerenveenvTwente | Twente A | 47.2% | 2.12 | 2.20 | +4.0% | — |
| PEC ZwollevAjax | Draw | 22.4% | 4.47 | 4.46 | -0.2% | — |
| HeerenveenvTwente | Draw | 23.9% | 4.18 | 3.69 | -11.7% | — |
Stake is blank unless a selection clears every gate: positive expected value, at least 5 percentage points of edge over the de-vigged line, and not more than 25 (a disagreement that large is usually the model missing something, not an opportunity). Most rows will be blank most days. Selections marked longshot are below 10% — their EV figure divides by a very small number and should not be trusted. thin data means one side has too few matches in the model's history for its rating to mean anything; the huge edge shown is the model's ignorance, not the market's mistake.
Goal markets in N1
| Match | Market | Pick | Model | Fair | Book | EV | Stake |
|---|
| PEC ZwollevAjax | Totals | Over3.5 | 39.5% | 2.53 | 6.19 | +144.4% | 3.00% |
| Sparta RotterdamvFeyenoord | Totals | Over3.5 | 35.8% | 2.79 | 5.92 | +111.8% | 3.00% |
| HeerenveenvTwente | Totals | Over3.5 | 37.0% | 2.71 | 5.73 | +111.6% | 3.00% |
| GroningenvUtrecht | Totals | Over3.5 | 26.3% | 3.80 | 7.71 | +102.6% | 3.00% |
| PEC ZwollevAjax | Totals | Over2.5 | 60.9% | 1.64 | 2.99 | +82.1% | — |
| Sparta RotterdamvFeyenoord | Totals | Over2.5 | 57.3% | 1.75 | 3.17 | +81.5% | — |
One row per market per match: the side the model prefers. The two sides of a two-way line are near mirror images, so showing both would double the table without adding anything. Edges are measured against each pair de-vigged on its own, not against the match-winner margin — books load goals markets more heavily, and borrowing the 1X2 overround here would flatter every row.
Sparta Rotterdam HOME
v Feyenoord AWAY
10:15 · N1 · expected goals
Sparta Rotterdam 1.16 – 1.84 Feyenoord
Sparta Rotterdam 17%
· draw 21%
· Feyenoord 61%
| Model | Market | Book odds | Edge |
|---|
| Sparta Rotterdam | 17.4% | 20.6% | 4.43 | -3.3pp |
| Draw | 21.3% | 23.0% | 4.01 | -1.6pp |
| Feyenoord | 61.3% | 56.4% | 1.70 | +4.9pp |
| Over 1.5 | 79.5% | 50.3% | 1.87 | +29.2pp |
| Under 1.5 | 20.5% | 49.7% | 1.90 | -29.2pp |
| Over 2.5 | 57.3% | 31.5% | 3.17 | +25.8pp |
| Under 2.5 | 42.7% | 68.5% | 1.46 | -25.8pp |
| Over 3.5 | 35.8% | 17.7% | 5.92 | +18.1pp |
| Under 3.5 | 64.2% | 82.3% | 1.27 | -18.1pp |
| BTTS Yes | 55.8% | 38.4% | 2.80 | +17.3pp |
| BTTS No | 44.2% | 61.6% | 1.75 | -17.3pp |
Sparta Rotter… or draw
39%
Sparta Rotter… clean sheet
16%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 11% · 1–2 10% · 0–1 9% · 0–2 8%
Correlated combinations
- Sparta Rotter… win + Sparta Rotter… clean sheet — 10% (fair 9.56); naive multiplication would say 4%, off by +181%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 31% (fair 3.19); naive multiplication would say 18%, off by +76%
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 17% (fair 6.05); naive multiplication would say 10%, off by +64%
- Feyenoord win + Feyenoord clean sheet — 26% (fair 3.85); naive multiplication would say 17%, off by +56%
Groningen HOME
v Utrecht AWAY
12:30 · N1 · expected goals
Groningen 1.22 – 1.34 Utrecht
Groningen 33%
· draw 26%
· Utrecht 42%
| Model | Market | Book odds | Edge |
|---|
| Groningen | 32.8% | 41.8% | 2.26 | -9.1pp |
| Draw | 25.7% | 27.5% | 3.37 | -1.8pp |
| Utrecht | 41.5% | 30.6% | 3.04 | +10.9pp |
| Over 1.5 | 72.1% | 44.5% | 2.12 | +27.6pp |
| Under 1.5 | 27.9% | 55.5% | 1.70 | -27.6pp |
| Over 2.5 | 47.1% | 27.1% | 3.74 | +20.1pp |
| Under 2.5 | 52.9% | 72.9% | 1.39 | -20.1pp |
| Over 3.5 | 26.3% | 13.3% | 7.71 | +13.0pp |
| Under 3.5 | 73.7% | 86.7% | 1.18 | -13.0pp |
| BTTS Yes | 51.7% | 33.8% | 3.20 | +17.9pp |
| BTTS No | 48.3% | 66.2% | 1.64 | -17.9pp |
Likeliest scores: 1–1 13% · 0–1 10% · 1–0 9% · 1–2 8%
Correlated combinations
- Groningen win + Groningen clean sheet — 18% (fair 5.58); naive multiplication would say 9%, off by +105%
- Utrecht win + Utrecht clean sheet — 21% (fair 4.69); naive multiplication would say 12%, off by +84%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 39% (fair 2.55); naive multiplication would say 25%, off by +59%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 40% (fair 2.51); naive multiplication would say 25%, off by +58%
PEC Zwolle HOME
v Ajax AWAY
12:30 · N1 · expected goals
PEC Zwolle 1.18 – 1.99 Ajax
PEC Zwolle 20%
· draw 22%
· Ajax 58%
| Model | Market | Book odds | Edge |
|---|
| PEC Zwolle | 19.9% | 16.2% | 5.50 | +3.7pp |
| Draw | 22.4% | 20.4% | 4.46 | +2.0pp |
| Ajax | 57.7% | 63.4% | 1.51 | -5.7pp |
| Over 1.5 | 81.9% | 52.5% | 1.79 | +29.4pp |
| Under 1.5 | 18.1% | 47.5% | 1.99 | -29.4pp |
| Over 2.5 | 60.9% | 33.8% | 2.99 | +27.0pp |
| Under 2.5 | 39.1% | 66.2% | 1.53 | -27.0pp |
| Over 3.5 | 39.5% | 17.0% | 6.19 | +22.5pp |
| Under 3.5 | 60.5% | 83.0% | 1.27 | -22.5pp |
| BTTS Yes | 57.2% | 37.3% | 2.90 | +19.9pp |
| BTTS No | 42.8% | 62.7% | 1.73 | -19.9pp |
PEC Zwolle clean sheet
14%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 10% · 1–2 10% · 0–2 8% · 0–1 8%
Correlated combinations
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 28% (fair 3.52); naive multiplication would say 15%, off by +84%
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 15% (fair 6.71); naive multiplication would say 9%, off by +72%
- Ajax win + Ajax clean sheet — 26% (fair 3.81); naive multiplication would say 17%, off by +52%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 50% (fair 2.01); naive multiplication would say 37%, off by +35%
Heerenveen HOME
v Twente AWAY
14:45 · N1 · expected goals
Heerenveen 1.37 – 1.68 Twente
Heerenveen 29%
· draw 24%
· Twente 47%
| Model | Market | Book odds | Edge |
|---|
| Heerenveen | 28.9% | 32.1% | 2.91 | -3.2pp |
| Draw | 23.9% | 24.9% | 3.69 | -1.0pp |
| Twente | 47.2% | 42.9% | 2.20 | +4.2pp |
| Over 1.5 | 80.3% | 52.6% | 1.79 | +27.7pp |
| Under 1.5 | 19.7% | 47.4% | 1.99 | -27.7pp |
| Over 2.5 | 58.4% | 34.1% | 2.95 | +24.3pp |
| Under 2.5 | 41.6% | 65.9% | 1.53 | -24.3pp |
| Over 3.5 | 37.0% | 18.2% | 5.73 | +18.7pp |
| Under 3.5 | 63.0% | 81.8% | 1.28 | -18.7pp |
| BTTS Yes | 57.9% | 43.0% | 2.55 | +15.0pp |
| BTTS No | 42.1% | 57.0% | 1.92 | -15.0pp |
Heerenveen clean sheet
19%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 11% · 1–2 9% · 0–1 7% · 2–1 7%
Correlated combinations
- Heerenveen win + Heerenveen clean sheet — 13% (fair 7.44); naive multiplication would say 6%, off by +133%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 30% (fair 3.35); naive multiplication would say 16%, off by +86%
- Twente win + Twente clean sheet — 20% (fair 4.95); naive multiplication would say 11%, off by +79%
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 17% (fair 6.04); naive multiplication would say 10%, off by +63%
Best value in NOR1
| Match | Selection | Model | Fair | Book | EV | Stake |
|---|
| Ham-KamvAalesund | Ham-Kam H | 56.0% | 1.78 | 2.10 | +17.6% | 3.00% |
| LillestromvRosenborg | Rosenborg A | 40.2% | 2.49 | 2.75 | +10.4% | 1.49% |
| Kristiansund BKvMolde | Molde A | 57.2% | 1.75 | 1.66 | -4.9% | — |
| LillestromvRosenborg | Draw | 26.6% | 3.76 | 3.53 | -6.1% | — |
| Kristiansund BKvMolde | Kristiansund BK H | 20.7% | 4.82 | 4.50 | -6.6% | — |
| Kristiansund BKvMolde | Draw | 22.1% | 4.53 | 3.99 | -11.9% | — |
Stake is blank unless a selection clears every gate: positive expected value, at least 5 percentage points of edge over the de-vigged line, and not more than 25 (a disagreement that large is usually the model missing something, not an opportunity). Most rows will be blank most days. Selections marked longshot are below 10% — their EV figure divides by a very small number and should not be trusted. thin data means one side has too few matches in the model's history for its rating to mean anything; the huge edge shown is the model's ignorance, not the market's mistake.
Goal markets in NOR1
| Match | Market | Pick | Model | Fair | Book | EV | Stake |
|---|
| LillestromvRosenborg | Totals | Over3.5 | 36.8% | 2.72 | 7.03 | +158.2% | 3.00% |
| Kristiansund BKvMolde | Totals | Over3.5 | 35.6% | 2.81 | 6.28 | +123.7% | 3.00% |
| LillestromvRosenborg | Totals | Over2.5 | 58.2% | 1.72 | 3.63 | +111.5% | — |
| Ham-KamvAalesund | Totals | Over3.5 | 30.6% | 3.27 | 6.38 | +94.9% | 3.00% |
| Kristiansund BKvMolde | Totals | Over2.5 | 57.1% | 1.75 | 3.24 | +85.2% | — |
| Ham-KamvAalesund | Totals | Over2.5 | 51.9% | 1.93 | 3.40 | +76.6% | 3.00% |
One row per market per match: the side the model prefers. The two sides of a two-way line are near mirror images, so showing both would double the table without adding anything. Edges are measured against each pair de-vigged on its own, not against the match-winner margin — books load goals markets more heavily, and borrowing the 1X2 overround here would flatter every row.
Lillestrom HOME
v Rosenborg AWAY
12:30 · NOR1 · expected goals
Lillestrom 1.40 – 1.64 Rosenborg
Lillestrom 33%
· draw 27%
· Rosenborg 40%
| Model | Market | Book odds | Edge |
|---|
| Lillestrom | 33.2% | 40.1% | 2.34 | -6.9pp |
| Draw | 26.6% | 26.0% | 3.53 | +0.6pp |
| Rosenborg | 40.2% | 33.9% | 2.75 | +6.3pp |
| Over 1.5 | 80.2% | 47.9% | 1.96 | +32.3pp |
| Under 1.5 | 19.8% | 52.1% | 1.80 | -32.3pp |
| Over 2.5 | 58.2% | 28.0% | 3.63 | +30.3pp |
| Under 2.5 | 41.8% | 72.0% | 1.41 | -30.3pp |
| Over 3.5 | 36.8% | 14.6% | 7.03 | +22.2pp |
| Under 3.5 | 63.2% | 85.4% | 1.20 | -22.2pp |
| BTTS Yes | 58.0% | 38.9% | 2.76 | +19.1pp |
| BTTS No | 42.0% | 61.1% | 1.76 | -19.1pp |
Lillestrom clean sheet
19%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 11% · 1–2 9% · 2–1 8% · 0–1 7%
Correlated combinations
- Lillestrom win + Lillestrom clean sheet — 14% (fair 7.05); naive multiplication would say 6%, off by +125%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 30% (fair 3.34); naive multiplication would say 16%, off by +87%
- Rosenborg win + Rosenborg clean sheet — 19% (fair 5.17); naive multiplication would say 10%, off by +84%
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 17% (fair 5.99); naive multiplication would say 10%, off by +62%
Ham-Kam HOME
v Aalesund AWAY
15:00 · NOR1 · expected goals
Ham-Kam 1.73 – 1.02 Aalesund
Ham-Kam 56%
· draw 23%
· Aalesund 21%
| Model | Market | Book odds | Edge |
|---|
| Ham-Kam | 56.0% | 45.0% | 2.10 | +11.0pp |
| Draw | 22.5% | 25.2% | 3.64 | -2.6pp |
| Aalesund | 21.4% | 29.8% | 3.11 | -8.4pp |
| Over 1.5 | 75.7% | 49.8% | 1.89 | +25.9pp |
| Under 1.5 | 24.3% | 50.2% | 1.88 | -25.9pp |
| Over 2.5 | 51.9% | 30.0% | 3.40 | +21.9pp |
| Under 2.5 | 48.1% | 70.0% | 1.46 | -21.9pp |
| Over 3.5 | 30.6% | 16.2% | 6.38 | +14.4pp |
| Under 3.5 | 69.4% | 83.8% | 1.23 | -14.4pp |
| BTTS Yes | 52.2% | 40.6% | 2.65 | +11.6pp |
| BTTS No | 47.8% | 59.4% | 1.81 | -11.6pp |
Likeliest scores: 1–1 12% · 1–0 11% · 2–1 10% · 2–0 10%
Correlated combinations
- Aalesund win + Aalesund clean sheet — 11% (fair 9.22); naive multiplication would say 4%, off by +182%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 36% (fair 2.76); naive multiplication would say 22%, off by +61%
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 19% (fair 5.38); naive multiplication would say 12%, off by +57%
- Ham-Kam win + Ham-Kam clean sheet — 29% (fair 3.43); naive multiplication would say 19%, off by +51%
Kristiansund BK HOME
v Molde AWAY
17:15 · NOR1 · expected goals
Kristiansund BK 1.15 – 1.84 Molde
Kristiansund BK 21%
· draw 22%
· Molde 57%
| Model | Market | Book odds | Edge |
|---|
| Kristiansund BK | 20.7% | 20.0% | 4.50 | +0.8pp |
| Draw | 22.1% | 22.8% | 3.99 | -0.7pp |
| Molde | 57.2% | 57.2% | 1.66 | -0.0pp |
| Over 1.5 | 79.4% | 51.3% | 1.84 | +28.2pp |
| Under 1.5 | 20.6% | 48.7% | 1.93 | -28.2pp |
| Over 2.5 | 57.1% | 31.5% | 3.24 | +25.6pp |
| Under 2.5 | 42.9% | 68.5% | 1.49 | -25.6pp |
| Over 3.5 | 35.6% | 16.7% | 6.28 | +19.0pp |
| Under 3.5 | 64.4% | 83.3% | 1.26 | -19.0pp |
| BTTS Yes | 55.6% | 39.3% | 2.73 | +16.4pp |
| BTTS No | 44.4% | 60.7% | 1.77 | -16.4pp |
Kristiansund … or draw
43%
Kristiansund … clean sheet
16%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 11% · 1–2 10% · 0–1 9% · 0–2 8%
Correlated combinations
- Kristiansund … win + Kristiansund … clean sheet — 10% (fair 9.57); naive multiplication would say 4%, off by +181%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 31% (fair 3.18); naive multiplication would say 18%, off by +76%
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 17% (fair 6.03); naive multiplication would say 10%, off by +64%
- Molde win + Molde clean sheet — 26% (fair 3.83); naive multiplication would say 17%, off by +56%
Best value in P1
| Match | Selection | Model | Fair | Book | EV | Stake |
|---|
| FC PortovAlverca | Draw | 19.1% | 5.22 | 6.72 | +28.6% | 1.25% |
| GIL VicentevRio Ave | GIL Vicente H | 51.5% | 1.94 | 1.98 | +2.1% | — |
| MoreirensevSC Braga | SC Braga A | 57.7% | 1.73 | 1.66 | -4.5% | — |
| MoreirensevSC Braga | Draw | 25.1% | 3.98 | 3.77 | -5.3% | — |
| GIL VicentevRio Ave | Draw | 25.7% | 3.89 | 3.41 | -12.3% | — |
| MoreirensevSC Braga | Moreirense H | 17.2% | 5.83 | 5.10 | -12.4% | — |
Stake is blank unless a selection clears every gate: positive expected value, at least 5 percentage points of edge over the de-vigged line, and not more than 25 (a disagreement that large is usually the model missing something, not an opportunity). Most rows will be blank most days. Selections marked longshot are below 10% — their EV figure divides by a very small number and should not be trusted. thin data means one side has too few matches in the model's history for its rating to mean anything; the huge edge shown is the model's ignorance, not the market's mistake.
Goal markets in P1
| Match | Market | Pick | Model | Fair | Book | EV | Stake |
|---|
| MoreirensevSC Braga | Totals | Over3.5 | 27.9% | 3.58 | 9.09 | +153.7% | 3.00% |
| FC PortovAlverca | Totals | Over3.5 | 32.2% | 3.10 | 7.03 | +126.6% | 3.00% |
| GIL VicentevRio Ave | Totals | Over3.5 | 25.0% | 4.01 | 8.86 | +121.1% | 3.00% |
| MoreirensevSC Braga | Totals | Over2.5 | 49.0% | 2.04 | 4.37 | +113.8% | — |
| FC PortovAlverca | Totals | Over2.5 | 53.7% | 1.86 | 3.74 | +100.7% | — |
| GIL VicentevRio Ave | Totals | Over2.5 | 45.6% | 2.19 | 4.36 | +99.0% | 3.00% |
One row per market per match: the side the model prefers. The two sides of a two-way line are near mirror images, so showing both would double the table without adding anything. Edges are measured against each pair de-vigged on its own, not against the match-winner margin — books load goals markets more heavily, and borrowing the 1X2 overround here would flatter every row.
FC Porto HOME
v Alverca AWAY
17:00 · P1 · expected goals
FC Porto 2.25 – 0.59 Alverca
FC Porto 74%
· draw 19%
· Alverca 7%
| Model | Market | Book odds | Edge |
|---|
| FC Porto | 73.6% | 81.6% | 1.18 | -8.1pp |
| Draw | 19.1% | 13.0% | 6.72 | +6.1pp |
| Alverca | 7.3% | 5.4% | 14.22 | +1.9pp |
| Over 1.5 | 76.8% | 49.2% | 1.91 | +27.7pp |
| Under 1.5 | 23.2% | 50.8% | 1.85 | -27.7pp |
| Over 2.5 | 53.7% | 26.2% | 3.74 | +27.5pp |
| Under 2.5 | 46.3% | 73.8% | 1.33 | -27.5pp |
| Over 3.5 | 32.2% | 14.7% | 7.03 | +17.5pp |
| Under 3.5 | 67.8% | 85.3% | 1.22 | -17.5pp |
| BTTS Yes | 42.9% | 27.6% | 3.48 | +15.3pp |
| BTTS No | 57.1% | 72.4% | 1.33 | -15.3pp |
Likeliest scores: 2–0 15% · 1–0 13% · 3–0 11% · 2–1 9%
Correlated combinations
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 14% (fair 7.00); naive multiplication would say 8%, off by +79%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 32% (fair 3.13); naive multiplication would say 22%, off by +48%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 38% (fair 2.63); naive multiplication would say 28%, off by +38%
- draw or Alverca + Under 3.5 — 21% (fair 4.78); naive multiplication would say 17%, off by +22%
GIL Vicente HOME
v Rio Ave AWAY
19:30 · P1 · expected goals
GIL Vicente 1.55 – 0.94 Rio Ave
GIL Vicente 51%
· draw 26%
· Rio Ave 23%
| Model | Market | Book odds | Edge |
|---|
| GIL Vicente | 51.5% | 48.0% | 1.98 | +3.5pp |
| Draw | 25.7% | 27.2% | 3.41 | -1.5pp |
| Rio Ave | 22.8% | 24.8% | 3.72 | -2.0pp |
| Over 1.5 | 70.8% | 40.6% | 2.32 | +30.2pp |
| Under 1.5 | 29.2% | 59.4% | 1.58 | -30.2pp |
| Over 2.5 | 45.6% | 23.0% | 4.36 | +22.6pp |
| Under 2.5 | 54.4% | 77.0% | 1.30 | -22.6pp |
| Over 3.5 | 25.0% | 11.4% | 8.86 | +13.6pp |
| Under 3.5 | 75.0% | 88.6% | 1.14 | -13.6pp |
| BTTS Yes | 49.0% | 35.9% | 2.74 | +13.1pp |
| BTTS No | 51.0% | 64.1% | 1.54 | -13.1pp |
GIL Vicente clean sheet
39%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 13% · 1–0 12% · 2–0 10% · 2–1 9%
Correlated combinations
- Rio Ave win + Rio Ave clean sheet — 12% (fair 8.00); naive multiplication would say 5%, off by +160%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 36% (fair 2.78); naive multiplication would say 22%, off by +63%
- GIL Vicente win + GIL Vicente clean sheet — 30% (fair 3.32); naive multiplication would say 20%, off by +52%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 42% (fair 2.38); naive multiplication would say 28%, off by +50%
Moreirense HOME
v SC Braga AWAY
19:30 · P1 · expected goals
Moreirense 0.99 – 1.64 SC Braga
Moreirense 17%
· draw 25%
· SC Braga 58%
| Model | Market | Book odds | Edge |
|---|
| Moreirense | 17.2% | 17.7% | 5.10 | -0.5pp |
| Draw | 25.1% | 24.5% | 3.77 | +0.6pp |
| SC Braga | 57.7% | 57.8% | 1.66 | -0.1pp |
| Over 1.5 | 73.5% | 40.6% | 2.32 | +32.9pp |
| Under 1.5 | 26.5% | 59.4% | 1.58 | -32.9pp |
| Over 2.5 | 49.0% | 23.0% | 4.37 | +26.0pp |
| Under 2.5 | 51.0% | 77.0% | 1.30 | -26.0pp |
| Over 3.5 | 27.9% | 11.2% | 9.09 | +16.8pp |
| Under 3.5 | 72.1% | 88.8% | 1.14 | -16.8pp |
| BTTS Yes | 50.8% | 33.3% | 2.94 | +17.5pp |
| BTTS No | 49.2% | 66.7% | 1.47 | -17.5pp |
Moreirense clean sheet
19%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 12% · 0–1 11% · 0–2 10% · 1–2 10%
Correlated combinations
- Moreirense win + Moreirense clean sheet — 12% (fair 8.61); naive multiplication would say 4%, off by +172%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 39% (fair 2.57); naive multiplication would say 25%, off by +56%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 39% (fair 2.57); naive multiplication would say 25%, off by +56%
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 20% (fair 5.03); naive multiplication would say 13%, off by +52%
Best value in SC0
| Match | Selection | Model | Fair | Book | EV | Stake |
|---|
| RangersvHibernian | Hibernian A | 22.3% | 4.48 | 5.47 | +22.1% | 1.24% |
| Heart Of MidlothianvDundee Utd | Heart Of Midlothian H | 64.9% | 1.54 | 1.64 | +6.4% | 2.51% |
| KilmarnockvCeltic | Kilmarnock H | 14.9% | 6.71 | 7.06 | +5.3% | — |
| MotherwellvFalkirk | Draw | 27.2% | 3.68 | 3.72 | +1.1% | — |
| MotherwellvFalkirk | Falkirk A | 23.6% | 4.24 | 4.08 | -3.7% | — |
| RangersvHibernian | Draw | 22.0% | 4.55 | 4.30 | -5.5% | — |
Stake is blank unless a selection clears every gate: positive expected value, at least 5 percentage points of edge over the de-vigged line, and not more than 25 (a disagreement that large is usually the model missing something, not an opportunity). Most rows will be blank most days. Selections marked longshot are below 10% — their EV figure divides by a very small number and should not be trusted. thin data means one side has too few matches in the model's history for its rating to mean anything; the huge edge shown is the model's ignorance, not the market's mistake.
Goal markets in SC0
| Match | Market | Pick | Model | Fair | Book | EV | Stake |
|---|
| KilmarnockvCeltic | Totals | Over3.5 | 42.7% | 2.34 | 6.74 | +187.4% | — |
| RangersvHibernian | Totals | Over3.5 | 37.4% | 2.67 | 6.95 | +160.0% | 3.00% |
| MotherwellvFalkirk | Totals | Over3.5 | 32.9% | 3.04 | 7.27 | +139.1% | 3.00% |
| Heart Of MidlothianvDundee Utd | Totals | Over3.5 | 28.7% | 3.48 | 7.66 | +120.1% | 3.00% |
| MotherwellvFalkirk | Totals | Over2.5 | 54.4% | 1.84 | 3.95 | +114.6% | — |
| RangersvHibernian | Totals | Over2.5 | 58.9% | 1.70 | 3.56 | +109.7% | — |
One row per market per match: the side the model prefers. The two sides of a two-way line are near mirror images, so showing both would double the table without adding anything. Edges are measured against each pair de-vigged on its own, not against the match-winner margin — books load goals markets more heavily, and borrowing the 1X2 overround here would flatter every row.
Kilmarnock HOME
v Celtic AWAY
12:30 · SC0 · expected goals
Kilmarnock 1.07 – 2.24 Celtic
Kilmarnock 15%
· draw 18%
· Celtic 67%
| Model | Market | Book odds | Edge |
|---|
| Kilmarnock | 14.9% | 12.3% | 7.06 | +2.6pp |
| Draw | 18.0% | 17.7% | 5.07 | +0.3pp |
| Celtic | 67.1% | 70.0% | 1.37 | -2.9pp |
| Over 1.5 | 83.8% | 53.7% | 1.75 | +30.0pp |
| Under 1.5 | 16.2% | 46.3% | 2.04 | -30.0pp |
| Over 2.5 | 63.8% | 31.4% | 3.17 | +32.5pp |
| Under 2.5 | 36.2% | 68.6% | 1.45 | -32.5pp |
| Over 3.5 | 42.7% | 15.4% | 6.74 | +27.2pp |
| Under 3.5 | 57.3% | 84.6% | 1.23 | -27.2pp |
| BTTS Yes | 56.5% | 34.6% | 3.09 | +22.0pp |
| BTTS No | 43.5% | 65.4% | 1.63 | -22.0pp |
Kilmarnock clean sheet
11%
Likeliest scores: 1–2 10% · 0–2 9% · 1–1 9% · 0–1 8%
Correlated combinations
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 13% (fair 7.64); naive multiplication would say 7%, off by +84%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 27% (fair 3.77); naive multiplication would say 15%, off by +82%
- Celtic win + Celtic clean sheet — 30% (fair 3.31); naive multiplication would say 22%, off by +39%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 50% (fair 2.00); naive multiplication would say 38%, off by +31%
Heart Of Midlothian HOME
v Dundee Utd AWAY
14:00 · SC0 · expected goals
Heart Of Midlothian 1.83 – 0.83 Dundee Utd
Heart Of Midlothian 65%
· draw 22%
· Dundee Utd 13%
| Model | Market | Book odds | Edge |
|---|
| Heart Of Midlothian | 64.9% | 58.4% | 1.64 | +6.6pp |
| Draw | 22.1% | 22.9% | 4.01 | -0.8pp |
| Dundee Utd | 13.0% | 18.7% | 4.82 | -5.8pp |
| Over 1.5 | 74.1% | 45.5% | 2.07 | +28.7pp |
| Under 1.5 | 25.9% | 54.5% | 1.73 | -28.7pp |
| Over 2.5 | 49.9% | 25.5% | 3.93 | +24.4pp |
| Under 2.5 | 50.1% | 74.5% | 1.35 | -24.4pp |
| Over 3.5 | 28.7% | 13.5% | 7.66 | +15.2pp |
| Under 3.5 | 71.3% | 86.5% | 1.20 | -15.2pp |
| BTTS Yes | 48.6% | 32.1% | 3.29 | +16.5pp |
| BTTS No | 51.4% | 67.9% | 1.55 | -16.5pp |
Heart Of Midl… or draw
87%
Heart Of Midl… clean sheet
43%
Dundee Utd clean sheet
16%
Likeliest scores: 1–0 12% · 2–0 12% · 1–1 11% · 2–1 10%
Correlated combinations
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 18% (fair 5.42); naive multiplication would say 12%, off by +58%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 37% (fair 2.71); naive multiplication would say 24%, off by +54%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 39% (fair 2.56); naive multiplication would say 26%, off by +50%
- Heart Of Midl… win + Heart Of Midl… clean sheet — 36% (fair 2.78); naive multiplication would say 26%, off by +37%
Motherwell HOME
v Falkirk AWAY
14:00 · SC0 · expected goals
Motherwell 1.75 – 1.11 Falkirk
Motherwell 49%
· draw 27%
· Falkirk 24%
| Model | Market | Book odds | Edge |
|---|
| Motherwell | 49.2% | 52.7% | 1.81 | -3.5pp |
| Draw | 27.2% | 24.8% | 3.72 | +2.4pp |
| Falkirk | 23.6% | 22.5% | 4.08 | +1.1pp |
| Over 1.5 | 77.5% | 45.5% | 2.07 | +32.0pp |
| Under 1.5 | 22.5% | 54.5% | 1.73 | -32.0pp |
| Over 2.5 | 54.4% | 25.3% | 3.95 | +29.0pp |
| Under 2.5 | 45.6% | 74.7% | 1.34 | -29.0pp |
| Over 3.5 | 32.9% | 14.1% | 7.27 | +18.8pp |
| Under 3.5 | 67.1% | 85.9% | 1.20 | -18.8pp |
| BTTS Yes | 54.2% | 33.1% | 3.24 | +21.1pp |
| BTTS No | 45.8% | 66.9% | 1.60 | -21.1pp |
Motherwell clean sheet
33%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 12% · 2–1 10% · 1–0 10% · 2–0 9%
Correlated combinations
- Falkirk win + Falkirk clean sheet — 11% (fair 8.98); naive multiplication would say 4%, off by +173%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 34% (fair 2.95); naive multiplication would say 20%, off by +69%
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 18% (fair 5.63); naive multiplication would say 11%, off by +60%
- Motherwell win + Motherwell clean sheet — 27% (fair 3.73); naive multiplication would say 17%, off by +56%
Rangers HOME
v Hibernian AWAY
15:00 · SC0 · expected goals
Rangers 1.97 – 1.10 Hibernian
Rangers 56%
· draw 22%
· Hibernian 22%
| Model | Market | Book odds | Edge |
|---|
| Rangers | 55.7% | 62.5% | 1.53 | -6.8pp |
| Draw | 22.0% | 21.2% | 4.30 | +0.8pp |
| Hibernian | 22.3% | 16.3% | 5.47 | +6.0pp |
| Over 1.5 | 80.6% | 49.8% | 1.89 | +30.8pp |
| Under 1.5 | 19.4% | 50.2% | 1.87 | -30.8pp |
| Over 2.5 | 58.9% | 27.6% | 3.56 | +31.3pp |
| Under 2.5 | 41.1% | 72.4% | 1.36 | -31.3pp |
| Over 3.5 | 37.4% | 15.0% | 6.95 | +22.4pp |
| Under 3.5 | 62.6% | 85.0% | 1.23 | -22.4pp |
| BTTS Yes | 55.6% | 34.9% | 3.06 | +20.7pp |
| BTTS No | 44.4% | 65.1% | 1.64 | -20.7pp |
Likeliest scores: 1–1 10% · 2–1 10% · 2–0 9% · 1–0 9%
Correlated combinations
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 30% (fair 3.31); naive multiplication would say 17%, off by +76%
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 16% (fair 6.43); naive multiplication would say 9%, off by +69%
- Rangers win + Rangers clean sheet — 28% (fair 3.55); naive multiplication would say 19%, off by +49%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 47% (fair 2.11); naive multiplication would say 34%, off by +38%
Best value in SUI1
| Match | Selection | Model | Fair | Book | EV | Stake |
|---|
| FC Basel 1893vFC Thun | FC Thun A | 37.2% | 2.69 | 3.77 | +40.1% | 3.00% |
| FC SionvFC Vaduz | Draw | 23.2% | 4.31 | 4.90 | +13.7% | 0.88% |
| FC SionvFC Vaduz | FC Vaduz A | 15.6% | 6.43 | 6.64 | +3.4% | — |
| FC LuganovFC Zurich | FC Lugano H | 65.9% | 1.52 | 1.51 | -0.8% | — |
| FC ST. GallenvFC Luzern | FC ST. Gallen H | 51.0% | 1.96 | 1.89 | -3.8% | — |
| FC ST. GallenvFC Luzern | FC Luzern A | 25.6% | 3.90 | 3.51 | -10.0% | — |
Stake is blank unless a selection clears every gate: positive expected value, at least 5 percentage points of edge over the de-vigged line, and not more than 25 (a disagreement that large is usually the model missing something, not an opportunity). Most rows will be blank most days. Selections marked longshot are below 10% — their EV figure divides by a very small number and should not be trusted. thin data means one side has too few matches in the model's history for its rating to mean anything; the huge edge shown is the model's ignorance, not the market's mistake.
Goal markets in SUI1
| Match | Market | Pick | Model | Fair | Book | EV | Stake |
|---|
| FC ST. GallenvFC Luzern | Totals | Over3.5 | 42.9% | 2.33 | 5.31 | +128.1% | 3.00% |
| FC Basel 1893vFC Thun | Totals | Over3.5 | 41.9% | 2.39 | 5.33 | +123.4% | 3.00% |
| FC LuganovFC Zurich | Totals | Over3.5 | 30.5% | 3.28 | 6.77 | +106.1% | 3.00% |
| FC ST. GallenvFC Luzern | Totals | Over2.5 | 64.1% | 1.56 | 3.03 | +94.3% | — |
| FC Basel 1893vFC Thun | Totals | Over2.5 | 63.2% | 1.58 | 3.02 | +91.0% | — |
| FC LuganovFC Zurich | Totals | Over2.5 | 51.8% | 1.93 | 3.47 | +79.9% | 3.00% |
One row per market per match: the side the model prefers. The two sides of a two-way line are near mirror images, so showing both would double the table without adding anything. Edges are measured against each pair de-vigged on its own, not against the match-winner margin — books load goals markets more heavily, and borrowing the 1X2 overround here would flatter every row.
FC Lugano HOME
v FC Zurich AWAY
12:00 · SUI1 · expected goals
FC Lugano 1.76 – 0.99 FC Zurich
FC Lugano 66%
· draw 20%
· FC Zurich 14%
| Model | Market | Book odds | Edge |
|---|
| FC Lugano | 65.9% | 63.3% | 1.51 | +2.6pp |
| Draw | 19.8% | 20.8% | 4.33 | -1.0pp |
| FC Zurich | 14.3% | 15.9% | 5.51 | -1.6pp |
| Over 1.5 | 75.6% | 49.3% | 1.91 | +26.3pp |
| Under 1.5 | 24.4% | 50.7% | 1.85 | -26.3pp |
| Over 2.5 | 51.8% | 29.4% | 3.47 | +22.4pp |
| Under 2.5 | 48.2% | 70.6% | 1.44 | -22.4pp |
| Over 3.5 | 30.5% | 15.4% | 6.77 | +15.1pp |
| Under 3.5 | 69.5% | 84.6% | 1.23 | -15.1pp |
| BTTS Yes | 51.8% | 35.5% | 2.99 | +16.3pp |
| BTTS No | 48.2% | 64.5% | 1.64 | -16.3pp |
Likeliest scores: 1–1 12% · 1–0 11% · 2–0 10% · 2–1 10%
Correlated combinations
- FC Zurich win + FC Zurich clean sheet — 10% (fair 9.61); naive multiplication would say 4%, off by +190%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 37% (fair 2.74); naive multiplication would say 23%, off by +60%
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 18% (fair 5.41); naive multiplication would say 12%, off by +57%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 41% (fair 2.44); naive multiplication would say 27%, off by +50%
FC Basel 1893 HOME
v FC Thun AWAY
14:30 · SUI1 · expected goals
FC Basel 1893 1.68 – 1.60 FC Thun
FC Basel 1893 41%
· draw 22%
· FC Thun 37%
| Model | Market | Book odds | Edge |
|---|
| FC Basel 1893 | 41.1% | 53.1% | 1.79 | -11.9pp |
| Draw | 21.7% | 22.7% | 4.00 | -1.0pp |
| FC Thun | 37.2% | 24.2% | 3.77 | +12.9pp |
| Over 1.5 | 83.4% | 52.9% | 1.78 | +30.5pp |
| Under 1.5 | 16.6% | 47.1% | 2.00 | -30.5pp |
| Over 2.5 | 63.2% | 34.1% | 3.02 | +29.0pp |
| Under 2.5 | 36.8% | 65.9% | 1.57 | -29.0pp |
| Over 3.5 | 41.9% | 20.1% | 5.33 | +21.9pp |
| Under 3.5 | 58.1% | 79.9% | 1.34 | -21.9pp |
| BTTS Yes | 61.0% | 43.8% | 2.46 | +17.3pp |
| BTTS No | 39.0% | 56.2% | 1.92 | -17.3pp |
FC Basel 1893 clean sheet
20%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 11% · 2–1 8% · 1–2 8% · 2–2 7%
Correlated combinations
- FC Thun win + FC Thun clean sheet — 14% (fair 6.90); naive multiplication would say 7%, off by +113%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 26% (fair 3.88); naive multiplication would say 13%, off by +105%
- FC Basel 1893 win + FC Basel 1893 clean sheet — 16% (fair 6.28); naive multiplication would say 8%, off by +100%
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 15% (fair 6.80); naive multiplication would say 9%, off by +69%
FC Sion HOME
v FC Vaduz AWAY
14:30 · SUI1 · expected goals
FC Sion 1.53 – 1.04 FC Vaduz
FC Sion 61%
· draw 23%
· FC Vaduz 16%
| Model | Market | Book odds | Edge |
|---|
| FC Sion | 61.2% | 69.1% | 1.38 | -7.8pp |
| Draw | 23.2% | 18.1% | 4.90 | +5.1pp |
| FC Vaduz | 15.6% | 12.9% | 6.64 | +2.7pp |
| Over 1.5 | 72.4% | 51.7% | 1.82 | +20.6pp |
| Under 1.5 | 27.6% | 48.3% | 1.95 | -20.6pp |
| Over 2.5 | 47.5% | 32.0% | 3.21 | +15.5pp |
| Under 2.5 | 52.5% | 68.0% | 1.51 | -15.5pp |
| Over 3.5 | 26.6% | 17.3% | 6.10 | +9.3pp |
| Under 3.5 | 73.4% | 82.7% | 1.28 | -9.3pp |
| BTTS Yes | 50.9% | 35.4% | 2.98 | +15.4pp |
| BTTS No | 49.1% | 64.6% | 1.63 | -15.4pp |
Likeliest scores: 1–1 13% · 1–0 11% · 2–1 9% · 2–0 9%
Correlated combinations
- FC Vaduz win + FC Vaduz clean sheet — 14% (fair 7.36); naive multiplication would say 6%, off by +145%
- FC Sion win + FC Sion clean sheet — 27% (fair 3.70); naive multiplication would say 17%, off by +60%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 39% (fair 2.60); naive multiplication would say 24%, off by +59%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 40% (fair 2.51); naive multiplication would say 26%, off by +56%
FC ST. Gallen HOME
v FC Luzern AWAY
14:30 · SUI1 · expected goals
FC ST. Gallen 1.98 – 1.35 FC Luzern
FC ST. Gallen 51%
· draw 23%
· FC Luzern 26%
| Model | Market | Book odds | Edge |
|---|
| FC ST. Gallen | 51.0% | 50.2% | 1.89 | +0.8pp |
| Draw | 23.4% | 23.8% | 3.83 | -0.4pp |
| FC Luzern | 25.6% | 26.1% | 3.51 | -0.4pp |
| Over 1.5 | 84.0% | 53.0% | 1.78 | +30.9pp |
| Under 1.5 | 16.0% | 47.0% | 2.01 | -30.9pp |
| Over 2.5 | 64.1% | 34.0% | 3.03 | +30.1pp |
| Under 2.5 | 35.9% | 66.0% | 1.56 | -30.1pp |
| Over 3.5 | 42.9% | 20.1% | 5.31 | +22.9pp |
| Under 3.5 | 57.1% | 79.9% | 1.33 | -22.9pp |
| BTTS Yes | 60.2% | 43.9% | 2.48 | +16.3pp |
| BTTS No | 39.8% | 56.1% | 1.94 | -16.3pp |
FC ST. Gallen clean sheet
26%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 10% · 2–1 9% · 2–0 7% · 1–0 7%
Correlated combinations
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 25% (fair 3.94); naive multiplication would say 13%, off by +101%
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 14% (fair 7.16); naive multiplication would say 8%, off by +75%
- FC ST. Gallen win + FC ST. Gallen clean sheet — 22% (fair 4.58); naive multiplication would say 13%, off by +64%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 54% (fair 1.84); naive multiplication would say 42%, off by +31%