Model output, not advice. These are probabilities from a
statistical model, published for transparency about how it performs. They are
not tips and not financial advice. In backtests this model does not
reliably beat closing prices, which is the only benchmark that matters, so
expect selections here to lose money over time. 18+. Gambling is addictive; if
it stops being a modelling exercise, stop.
UEL 10 fixtures across 2 days
Best goal markets over/under and both teams to score, every day in this window
| Match | Market | Pick | Model | Fair | Book | EV | Stake |
|---|
| RangersvJagiellonia | Totals | Over3.5 thin data | 41.8% | 2.39 | 7.84 | +227.6% | — |
| SaburtalovLarne | Totals | Over3.5 thin data | 34.1% | 2.93 | 8.39 | +186.2% | — |
| RangersvJagiellonia | Totals | Over2.5 thin data | 63.0% | 1.59 | 4.41 | +177.8% | — |
| AnderlechtvPAOK | Totals | Over3.5 | 34.8% | 2.87 | 7.62 | +165.5% | 3.00% |
| AnderlechtvPAOK | Totals | Over2.5 | 56.3% | 1.78 | 4.58 | +158.2% | — |
| SaburtalovLarne | Totals | Over2.5 thin data | 55.6% | 1.80 | 4.58 | +154.5% | — |
| KI KlaksvikvLech Poznan | Totals | Over3.5 thin data | 39.4% | 2.54 | 6.38 | +151.3% | — |
| CSKA SofiavMaccabi Tel Aviv | Totals | Over2.5 thin data | 49.9% | 2.00 | 5.01 | +150.1% | — |
| CSKA SofiavMaccabi Tel Aviv | Totals | Over3.5 thin data | 28.8% | 3.48 | 8.59 | +147.0% | — |
| PafosvRed Bull Salzburg | Totals | Over2.5 thin data | 49.5% | 2.02 | 4.69 | +131.8% | — |
| Vikingur ReykjavikvFC Thun | Totals | Over3.5 thin data | 38.6% | 2.59 | 5.81 | +124.2% | — |
| KI KlaksvikvLech Poznan | BTTS | Yes— thin data | 59.6% | 1.68 | 3.61 | +115.0% | — |
| PafosvRed Bull Salzburg | BTTS | Yes— thin data | 53.1% | 1.88 | 3.98 | +111.6% | — |
| Egnatia RrogozhinëvShamrock Rovers | Totals | Over3.5 thin data | 25.7% | 3.89 | 8.17 | +109.7% | — |
| KI KlaksvikvLech Poznan | Totals | Over2.5 thin data | 60.8% | 1.65 | 3.44 | +109.0% | — |
| Omonia NicosiavLincoln Red Imps FC | Totals | Over3.5 | 30.4% | 3.29 | 6.81 | +107.0% | 3.00% |
| AnderlechtvPAOK | BTTS | Yes— | 56.9% | 1.76 | 3.58 | +103.5% | — |
| Egnatia RrogozhinëvShamrock Rovers | Totals | Over2.5 thin data | 46.4% | 2.15 | 4.30 | +99.8% | — |
| Omonia NicosiavLincoln Red Imps FC | BTTS | Yes— | 50.8% | 1.97 | 3.93 | +99.7% | — |
| Vikingur ReykjavikvFC Thun | Totals | Over2.5 thin data | 60.1% | 1.67 | 3.21 | +92.9% | — |
One row per market per match: the side the model prefers. The two sides of a two-way line are near mirror images, so showing both would double the table without adding anything. Edges are measured against each pair de-vigged on its own, not against the match-winner margin — books load goals markets more heavily, and borrowing the 1X2 overround here would flatter every row.
Best value on this date
| Match | Selection | Model | Fair | Book | EV | Stake |
|---|
| SaburtalovLarne | Larne A thin data | 30.1% | 3.33 | 4.82 | +45.0% | — |
| SaburtalovLarne | Draw thin data | 23.8% | 4.20 | 3.54 | -15.7% | — |
| SaburtalovLarne | Saburtalo H thin data | 46.1% | 2.17 | 1.68 | -22.4% | — |
Stake is blank unless a selection clears every gate: positive expected value, at least 5 percentage points of edge over the de-vigged line, and not more than 25 (a disagreement that large is usually the model missing something, not an opportunity). Most rows will be blank most days. Selections marked longshot are below 10% — their EV figure divides by a very small number and should not be trusted. thin data means one side has too few matches in the model's history for its rating to mean anything; the huge edge shown is the model's ignorance, not the market's mistake.
Goal markets on this date
| Match | Market | Pick | Model | Fair | Book | EV | Stake |
|---|
| SaburtalovLarne | Totals | Over3.5 thin data | 34.1% | 2.93 | 8.39 | +186.2% | — |
| SaburtalovLarne | Totals | Over2.5 thin data | 55.6% | 1.80 | 4.58 | +154.5% | — |
| SaburtalovLarne | Totals | Over1.5 thin data | 78.4% | 1.28 | 2.33 | +82.5% | — |
| SaburtalovLarne | BTTS | Yes— thin data | 56.2% | 1.78 | 3.15 | +76.9% | — |
One row per market per match: the side the model prefers. The two sides of a two-way line are near mirror images, so showing both would double the table without adding anything. Edges are measured against each pair de-vigged on its own, not against the match-winner margin — books load goals markets more heavily, and borrowing the 1X2 overround here would flatter every row.
Saburtalo HOME
v Larne AWAY
16:00 · UEL · expected goals
Saburtalo 1.62 – 1.29 Larne
Thin data: Saburtalo 9 matches, Larne 4 in this model's history. Ratings that sparse sit near the league average, which flatters the weaker side badly when the two come from different divisions. Shown for completeness, not as a forecast.
Saburtalo 46%
· draw 24%
· Larne 30%
| Model | Market | Book odds | Edge |
|---|
| Saburtalo | 46.1% | 56.2% | 1.68 | -10.0pp |
| Draw | 23.8% | 25.6% | 3.54 | -1.8pp |
| Larne | 30.1% | 18.3% | 4.82 | +11.8pp |
| Over 1.5 | 78.4% | 41.9% | 2.33 | +36.4pp |
| Under 1.5 | 21.6% | 58.1% | 1.68 | -36.4pp |
| Over 2.5 | 55.6% | 22.1% | 4.58 | +33.5pp |
| Under 2.5 | 44.4% | 77.9% | 1.30 | -33.5pp |
| Over 3.5 | 34.1% | 12.0% | 8.39 | +22.1pp |
| Under 3.5 | 65.9% | 88.0% | 1.14 | -22.1pp |
| BTTS Yes | 56.2% | 31.0% | 3.15 | +25.2pp |
| BTTS No | 43.8% | 69.0% | 1.42 | -25.2pp |
Likeliest scores: 1–1 12% · 2–1 9% · 1–0 8% · 1–2 7%
Correlated combinations
- Larne win + Larne clean sheet — 14% (fair 7.24); naive multiplication would say 6%, off by +134%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 32% (fair 3.09); naive multiplication would say 18%, off by +78%
- Saburtalo win + Saburtalo clean sheet — 22% (fair 4.64); naive multiplication would say 12%, off by +76%
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 18% (fair 5.65); naive multiplication would say 11%, off by +59%
Best value on this date
| Match | Selection | Model | Fair | Book | EV | Stake |
|---|
| Omonia NicosiavLincoln Red Imps FC | Lincoln Red Imps FC A | 23.1% | 4.33 | 20.89 | +382.7% | 3.00% |
| KI KlaksvikvLech Poznan | KI Klaksvik H thin data | 40.7% | 2.46 | 5.47 | +122.9% | — |
| Omonia NicosiavLincoln Red Imps FC | Draw | 25.9% | 3.85 | 8.29 | +115.0% | 3.00% |
| Heart Of MidlothianvBenfica | Heart Of Midlothian H | 22.6% | 4.43 | 6.27 | +41.4% | 1.97% |
| AnderlechtvPAOK | PAOK A | 48.9% | 2.04 | 2.46 | +20.5% | 3.00% |
| RangersvJagiellonia | Rangers H thin data | 73.2% | 1.37 | 1.51 | +10.8% | — |
Stake is blank unless a selection clears every gate: positive expected value, at least 5 percentage points of edge over the de-vigged line, and not more than 25 (a disagreement that large is usually the model missing something, not an opportunity). Most rows will be blank most days. Selections marked longshot are below 10% — their EV figure divides by a very small number and should not be trusted. thin data means one side has too few matches in the model's history for its rating to mean anything; the huge edge shown is the model's ignorance, not the market's mistake.
Goal markets on this date
| Match | Market | Pick | Model | Fair | Book | EV | Stake |
|---|
| RangersvJagiellonia | Totals | Over3.5 thin data | 41.8% | 2.39 | 7.84 | +227.6% | — |
| RangersvJagiellonia | Totals | Over2.5 thin data | 63.0% | 1.59 | 4.41 | +177.8% | — |
| AnderlechtvPAOK | Totals | Over3.5 | 34.8% | 2.87 | 7.62 | +165.5% | 3.00% |
| AnderlechtvPAOK | Totals | Over2.5 | 56.3% | 1.78 | 4.58 | +158.2% | — |
| KI KlaksvikvLech Poznan | Totals | Over3.5 thin data | 39.4% | 2.54 | 6.38 | +151.3% | — |
| CSKA SofiavMaccabi Tel Aviv | Totals | Over2.5 thin data | 49.9% | 2.00 | 5.01 | +150.1% | — |
One row per market per match: the side the model prefers. The two sides of a two-way line are near mirror images, so showing both would double the table without adding anything. Edges are measured against each pair de-vigged on its own, not against the match-winner margin — books load goals markets more heavily, and borrowing the 1X2 overround here would flatter every row.
Omonia Nicosia HOME
v Lincoln Red Imps FC AWAY
17:00 · UEL · expected goals
Omonia Nicosia 1.82 – 0.93 Lincoln Red Imps FC
Omonia Nicosia 51%
· draw 26%
· Lincoln Red Imps FC 23%
| Model | Market | Book odds | Edge |
|---|
| Omonia Nicosia | 51.0% | 87.3% | 1.10 | -36.3pp |
| Draw | 25.9% | 9.8% | 8.29 | +16.1pp |
| Lincoln Red Imps FC | 23.1% | 2.9% | 20.89 | +20.2pp |
| Over 1.5 | 75.5% | 51.1% | 1.83 | +24.4pp |
| Under 1.5 | 24.5% | 48.9% | 1.91 | -24.4pp |
| Over 2.5 | 51.7% | 28.4% | 3.48 | +23.3pp |
| Under 2.5 | 48.3% | 71.6% | 1.38 | -23.3pp |
| Over 3.5 | 30.4% | 15.2% | 6.81 | +15.2pp |
| Under 3.5 | 69.6% | 84.8% | 1.22 | -15.2pp |
| BTTS Yes | 50.8% | 24.3% | 3.93 | +26.5pp |
| BTTS No | 49.2% | 75.7% | 1.26 | -26.5pp |
Omonia Nicosia or draw
77%
draw or Lincoln Red I…
49%
Omonia Nicosia clean sheet
39%
Lincoln Red I… clean sheet
16%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 11% · 1–0 11% · 2–0 11% · 2–1 10%
Correlated combinations
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 18% (fair 5.51); naive multiplication would say 11%, off by +59%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 37% (fair 2.71); naive multiplication would say 24%, off by +57%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 40% (fair 2.51); naive multiplication would say 26%, off by +50%
- Omonia Nicosia win + Omonia Nicosia clean sheet — 33% (fair 3.07); naive multiplication would say 23%, off by +43%
Pafos HOME
v Red Bull Salzburg AWAY
17:00 · UEL · expected goals
Pafos 1.38 – 1.27 Red Bull Salzburg
Thin data: Pafos 16 matches, Red Bull Salzburg 290 in this model's history. Ratings that sparse sit near the league average, which flatters the weaker side badly when the two come from different divisions. Shown for completeness, not as a forecast.
Pafos 33%
· draw 25%
· Red Bull Salzburg 42%
| Model | Market | Book odds | Edge |
|---|
| Pafos | 33.4% | 33.6% | 2.75 | -0.2pp |
| Draw | 24.5% | 28.1% | 3.25 | -3.6pp |
| Red Bull Salzburg | 42.1% | 38.3% | 2.43 | +3.8pp |
| Over 1.5 | 73.9% | 40.5% | 2.32 | +33.4pp |
| Under 1.5 | 26.1% | 59.5% | 1.58 | -33.4pp |
| Over 2.5 | 49.5% | 21.6% | 4.69 | +27.9pp |
| Under 2.5 | 50.5% | 78.4% | 1.29 | -27.9pp |
| Over 3.5 | 28.4% | 15.2% | 6.60 | +13.1pp |
| Under 3.5 | 71.6% | 84.8% | 1.19 | -13.1pp |
| BTTS Yes | 53.1% | 27.3% | 3.98 | +25.7pp |
| BTTS No | 46.9% | 72.7% | 1.50 | -25.7pp |
draw or Red Bull Salz…
67%
Red Bull Salz… clean sheet
25%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 13% · 1–0 9% · 2–1 9% · 0–1 8%
Correlated combinations
- Red Bull Salz… win + Red Bull Salz… clean sheet — 17% (fair 5.71); naive multiplication would say 8%, off by +107%
- Pafos win + Pafos clean sheet — 21% (fair 4.87); naive multiplication would say 11%, off by +87%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 38% (fair 2.66); naive multiplication would say 23%, off by +63%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 41% (fair 2.41); naive multiplication would say 27%, off by +54%
KI Klaksvik HOME
v Lech Poznan AWAY
17:30 · UEL · expected goals
KI Klaksvik 1.66 – 1.50 Lech Poznan
Thin data: KI Klaksvik 26 matches, Lech Poznan 18 in this model's history. Ratings that sparse sit near the league average, which flatters the weaker side badly when the two come from different divisions. Shown for completeness, not as a forecast.
KI Klaksvik 41%
· draw 25%
· Lech Poznan 34%
| Model | Market | Book odds | Edge |
|---|
| KI Klaksvik | 40.7% | 15.7% | 5.47 | +25.0pp |
| Draw | 25.2% | 20.1% | 4.40 | +5.1pp |
| Lech Poznan | 34.1% | 64.2% | 1.48 | -30.1pp |
| Over 1.5 | 81.9% | 50.6% | 1.86 | +31.3pp |
| Under 1.5 | 18.1% | 49.4% | 1.90 | -31.3pp |
| Over 2.5 | 60.8% | 28.6% | 3.44 | +32.2pp |
| Under 2.5 | 39.2% | 71.4% | 1.38 | -32.2pp |
| Over 3.5 | 39.4% | 16.2% | 6.38 | +23.2pp |
| Under 3.5 | 60.6% | 83.8% | 1.23 | -23.2pp |
| BTTS Yes | 59.6% | 30.0% | 3.61 | +29.5pp |
| BTTS No | 40.4% | 70.0% | 1.55 | -29.5pp |
KI Klaksvik clean sheet
22%
Lech Poznan clean sheet
19%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 11% · 2–1 9% · 1–2 8% · 1–0 7%
Correlated combinations
- Lech Poznan win + Lech Poznan clean sheet — 14% (fair 7.00); naive multiplication would say 7%, off by +120%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 28% (fair 3.60); naive multiplication would say 14%, off by +96%
- KI Klaksvik win + KI Klaksvik clean sheet — 18% (fair 5.67); naive multiplication would say 9%, off by +91%
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 16% (fair 6.38); naive multiplication would say 9%, off by +66%
Vikingur Reykjavik HOME
v FC Thun AWAY
17:30 · UEL · expected goals
Vikingur Reykjavik 1.49 – 1.64 FC Thun
Thin data: Vikingur Reykjavik 7 matches, FC Thun 82 in this model's history. Ratings that sparse sit near the league average, which flatters the weaker side badly when the two come from different divisions. Shown for completeness, not as a forecast.
Vikingur Reykjavik 34%
· draw 26%
· FC Thun 39%
| Model | Market | Book odds | Edge |
|---|
| Vikingur Reykjavik | 34.3% | 37.3% | 2.48 | -3.0pp |
| Draw | 26.3% | 24.7% | 3.64 | +1.5pp |
| FC Thun | 39.4% | 38.0% | 2.44 | +1.5pp |
| Over 1.5 | 81.4% | 53.4% | 1.76 | +28.1pp |
| Under 1.5 | 18.6% | 46.6% | 2.02 | -28.1pp |
| Over 2.5 | 60.1% | 30.8% | 3.21 | +29.3pp |
| Under 2.5 | 39.9% | 69.2% | 1.43 | -29.3pp |
| Over 3.5 | 38.6% | 17.9% | 5.81 | +20.8pp |
| Under 3.5 | 61.4% | 82.1% | 1.26 | -20.8pp |
| BTTS Yes | 59.2% | 37.9% | 2.88 | +21.2pp |
| BTTS No | 40.8% | 62.1% | 1.76 | -21.2pp |
Vikingur Reyk… or draw
61%
Vikingur Reyk… clean sheet
19%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 11% · 1–2 9% · 2–1 8% · 0–1 7%
Correlated combinations
- Vikingur Reyk… win + Vikingur Reyk… clean sheet — 15% (fair 6.84); naive multiplication would say 7%, off by +117%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 28% (fair 3.52); naive multiplication would say 15%, off by +93%
- FC Thun win + FC Thun clean sheet — 18% (fair 5.65); naive multiplication would say 9%, off by +92%
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 16% (fair 6.26); naive multiplication would say 10%, off by +65%
CSKA Sofia HOME
v Maccabi Tel Aviv AWAY
18:00 · UEL · expected goals
CSKA Sofia 1.66 – 1.01 Maccabi Tel Aviv
Thin data: CSKA Sofia 16 matches, Maccabi Tel Aviv 45 in this model's history. Ratings that sparse sit near the league average, which flatters the weaker side badly when the two come from different divisions. Shown for completeness, not as a forecast.
CSKA Sofia 52%
· draw 28%
· Maccabi Tel Aviv 19%
| Model | Market | Book odds | Edge |
|---|
| CSKA Sofia | 52.3% | 45.8% | 2.04 | +6.5pp |
| Draw | 28.3% | 28.3% | 3.22 | +0.0pp |
| Maccabi Tel Aviv | 19.4% | 26.0% | 3.48 | -6.5pp |
| Over 1.5 | 74.2% | 38.5% | 2.43 | +35.7pp |
| Under 1.5 | 25.8% | 61.5% | 1.52 | -35.7pp |
| Over 2.5 | 49.9% | 19.8% | 5.01 | +30.1pp |
| Under 2.5 | 50.1% | 80.2% | 1.24 | -30.1pp |
| Over 3.5 | 28.8% | 11.6% | 8.59 | +17.2pp |
| Under 3.5 | 71.2% | 88.4% | 1.13 | -17.2pp |
| BTTS Yes | 51.4% | 34.3% | 2.86 | +17.1pp |
| BTTS No | 48.6% | 65.7% | 1.49 | -17.1pp |
draw or Maccabi Tel A…
48%
CSKA Sofia clean sheet
36%
Maccabi Tel A… clean sheet
19%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 12% · 1–0 11% · 2–1 10% · 2–0 10%
Correlated combinations
- Maccabi Tel A… win + Maccabi Tel A… clean sheet — 12% (fair 8.63); naive multiplication would say 4%, off by +171%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 38% (fair 2.63); naive multiplication would say 24%, off by +58%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 40% (fair 2.51); naive multiplication would say 26%, off by +54%
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 20% (fair 5.13); naive multiplication would say 13%, off by +53%
Rangers HOME
v Jagiellonia AWAY
18:30 · UEL · expected goals
Rangers 2.21 – 1.07 Jagiellonia
Thin data: Rangers 357 matches, Jagiellonia 6 in this model's history. Ratings that sparse sit near the league average, which flatters the weaker side badly when the two come from different divisions. Shown for completeness, not as a forecast.
Rangers 73%
· draw 16%
· Jagiellonia 11%
| Model | Market | Book odds | Edge |
|---|
| Rangers | 73.2% | 62.6% | 1.51 | +10.6pp |
| Draw | 16.2% | 21.9% | 4.07 | -5.8pp |
| Jagiellonia | 10.6% | 15.5% | 5.58 | -4.8pp |
| Over 1.5 | 83.3% | 44.4% | 2.11 | +38.9pp |
| Under 1.5 | 16.7% | 55.6% | 1.69 | -38.9pp |
| Over 2.5 | 63.0% | 22.2% | 4.41 | +40.8pp |
| Under 2.5 | 37.0% | 77.8% | 1.26 | -40.8pp |
| Over 3.5 | 41.8% | 13.1% | 7.84 | +28.7pp |
| Under 3.5 | 58.2% | 86.9% | 1.18 | -28.7pp |
| BTTS Yes | 56.3% | 35.7% | 2.75 | +20.6pp |
| BTTS No | 43.7% | 64.3% | 1.53 | -20.6pp |
Jagiellonia clean sheet
11%
Likeliest scores: 2–1 10% · 1–1 9% · 2–0 9% · 1–0 8%
Correlated combinations
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 13% (fair 7.44); naive multiplication would say 7%, off by +82%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 27% (fair 3.69); naive multiplication would say 15%, off by +81%
- Rangers win + Rangers clean sheet — 30% (fair 3.32); naive multiplication would say 21%, off by +40%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 50% (fair 2.02); naive multiplication would say 37%, off by +32%
Anderlecht HOME
v PAOK AWAY
18:30 · UEL · expected goals
Anderlecht 1.38 – 1.58 PAOK
Anderlecht 28%
· draw 23%
· PAOK 49%
| Model | Market | Book odds | Edge |
|---|
| Anderlecht | 28.2% | 34.0% | 2.71 | -5.9pp |
| Draw | 22.9% | 28.3% | 3.23 | -5.4pp |
| PAOK | 48.9% | 37.7% | 2.46 | +11.2pp |
| Over 1.5 | 78.9% | 41.8% | 2.24 | +37.1pp |
| Under 1.5 | 21.1% | 58.2% | 1.61 | -37.1pp |
| Over 2.5 | 56.3% | 21.9% | 4.58 | +34.4pp |
| Under 2.5 | 43.7% | 78.1% | 1.28 | -34.4pp |
| Over 3.5 | 34.8% | 13.2% | 7.62 | +21.7pp |
| Under 3.5 | 65.2% | 86.8% | 1.16 | -21.7pp |
| BTTS Yes | 56.9% | 30.4% | 3.58 | +26.5pp |
| BTTS No | 43.1% | 69.6% | 1.56 | -26.5pp |
Anderlecht clean sheet
21%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 12% · 1–2 9% · 2–1 8% · 0–1 8%
Correlated combinations
- Anderlecht win + Anderlecht clean sheet — 15% (fair 6.67); naive multiplication would say 7%, off by +120%
- PAOK win + PAOK clean sheet — 20% (fair 5.12); naive multiplication would say 11%, off by +86%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 32% (fair 3.17); naive multiplication would say 17%, off by +81%
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 18% (fair 5.71); naive multiplication would say 11%, off by +59%
Heart Of Midlothian HOME
v Benfica AWAY
18:45 · UEL · expected goals
Heart Of Midlothian 1.01 – 1.59 Benfica
Heart Of Midlothian 23%
· draw 23%
· Benfica 54%
| Model | Market | Book odds | Edge |
|---|
| Heart Of Midlothian | 22.6% | 13.5% | 6.27 | +9.0pp |
| Draw | 23.2% | 19.5% | 4.52 | +3.6pp |
| Benfica | 54.3% | 66.9% | 1.42 | -12.7pp |
| Over 1.5 | 73.0% | 52.9% | 1.77 | +20.1pp |
| Under 1.5 | 27.0% | 47.1% | 1.99 | -20.1pp |
| Over 2.5 | 48.3% | 30.9% | 3.20 | +17.4pp |
| Under 2.5 | 51.7% | 69.1% | 1.43 | -17.4pp |
| Over 3.5 | 27.3% | 17.8% | 5.83 | +9.6pp |
| Under 3.5 | 72.7% | 82.2% | 1.26 | -9.6pp |
| BTTS Yes | 50.9% | 31.4% | 3.41 | +19.5pp |
| BTTS No | 49.1% | 68.6% | 1.56 | -19.5pp |
Heart Of Midl… or draw
46%
Heart Of Midl… clean sheet
20%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 12% · 0–1 11% · 1–2 9% · 0–2 9%
Correlated combinations
- Heart Of Midl… win + Heart Of Midl… clean sheet — 13% (fair 7.99); naive multiplication would say 5%, off by +159%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 39% (fair 2.58); naive multiplication would say 25%, off by +57%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 39% (fair 2.54); naive multiplication would say 25%, off by +56%
- Benfica win + Benfica clean sheet — 28% (fair 3.53); naive multiplication would say 18%, off by +56%
Egnatia Rrogozhinë HOME
v Shamrock Rovers AWAY
19:00 · UEL · expected goals
Egnatia Rrogozhinë 1.37 – 1.16 Shamrock Rovers
Thin data: Egnatia Rrogozhinë 4 matches, Shamrock Rovers 26 in this model's history. Ratings that sparse sit near the league average, which flatters the weaker side badly when the two come from different divisions. Shown for completeness, not as a forecast.
Egnatia Rrogozhinë 42%
· draw 29%
· Shamrock Rovers 30%
| Model | Market | Book odds | Edge |
|---|
| Egnatia Rrogozhinë | 41.5% | 45.1% | 2.07 | -3.6pp |
| Draw | 28.9% | 26.3% | 3.44 | +2.6pp |
| Shamrock Rovers | 29.6% | 28.6% | 3.18 | +1.0pp |
| Over 1.5 | 71.5% | 44.1% | 2.12 | +27.4pp |
| Under 1.5 | 28.5% | 55.9% | 1.68 | -27.4pp |
| Over 2.5 | 46.4% | 23.4% | 4.30 | +23.0pp |
| Under 2.5 | 53.6% | 76.6% | 1.32 | -23.0pp |
| Over 3.5 | 25.7% | 12.5% | 8.17 | +13.1pp |
| Under 3.5 | 74.3% | 87.5% | 1.17 | -13.1pp |
| BTTS Yes | 51.2% | 32.3% | 3.34 | +18.9pp |
| BTTS No | 48.8% | 67.7% | 1.59 | -18.9pp |
Egnatia Rrogo… or draw
70%
draw or Shamrock Rove…
58%
Egnatia Rrogo… clean sheet
31%
Shamrock Rove… clean sheet
25%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 13% · 1–0 10% · 0–1 9% · 2–1 9%
Correlated combinations
- Shamrock Rove… win + Shamrock Rove… clean sheet — 17% (fair 5.92); naive multiplication would say 8%, off by +114%
- Egnatia Rrogo… win + Egnatia Rrogo… clean sheet — 23% (fair 4.36); naive multiplication would say 13%, off by +77%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 38% (fair 2.60); naive multiplication would say 24%, off by +61%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 41% (fair 2.47); naive multiplication would say 26%, off by +56%