Model output, not advice. These are probabilities from a
statistical model, published for transparency about how it performs. They are
not tips and not financial advice. In backtests this model does not
reliably beat closing prices, which is the only benchmark that matters, so
expect selections here to lose money over time. 18+. Gambling is addictive; if
it stops being a modelling exercise, stop.
UCL 9 fixtures across 1 day
Best goal markets over/under and both teams to score, every day in this window
| Match | Market | Pick | Model | Fair | Book | EV | Stake |
|---|
| Sabah FAvAarhus | Totals | Over3.5 thin data | 37.9% | 2.64 | 7.69 | +191.1% | — |
| LyonvSparta Praha | Totals | Over3.5 | 43.3% | 2.31 | 6.59 | +185.1% | — |
| NEC NijmegenvOlympiakos Piraeus | Totals | Over3.5 | 28.7% | 3.48 | 9.18 | +163.6% | 3.00% |
| Kauno ŽalgirisvDinamo Zagreb | Totals | Over3.5 thin data | 38.1% | 2.63 | 6.85 | +160.7% | — |
| CeljevArarat-Armenia | Totals | Over3.5 thin data | 36.1% | 2.77 | 7.08 | +155.3% | — |
| NEC NijmegenvOlympiakos Piraeus | Totals | Over2.5 | 49.9% | 2.00 | 4.85 | +142.0% | — |
| LyonvSparta Praha | Totals | Over2.5 | 64.4% | 1.55 | 3.70 | +137.9% | — |
| CeljevArarat-Armenia | Totals | Over2.5 thin data | 57.6% | 1.74 | 4.11 | +136.4% | — |
| Sturm GrazvFenerbahçe | Totals | Over3.5 | 34.9% | 2.86 | 6.72 | +134.9% | 3.00% |
| Sabah FAvAarhus | Totals | Over2.5 thin data | 59.3% | 1.69 | 3.80 | +125.5% | — |
| Sturm GrazvFenerbahçe | Totals | Over2.5 | 56.4% | 1.77 | 3.81 | +115.2% | — |
| Bodo/GlimtvUnion St. Gilloise | Totals | Over3.5 | 34.0% | 2.94 | 6.11 | +107.8% | 3.00% |
| Sabah FAvAarhus | BTTS | Yes— thin data | 58.3% | 1.72 | 3.56 | +107.6% | — |
| Kauno ŽalgirisvDinamo Zagreb | BTTS | Yes— thin data | 58.9% | 1.70 | 3.52 | +107.2% | — |
| LyonvSparta Praha | BTTS | Yes— | 57.7% | 1.73 | 3.51 | +102.5% | — |
| Kauno ŽalgirisvDinamo Zagreb | Totals | Over2.5 thin data | 59.5% | 1.68 | 3.38 | +101.0% | — |
| Sturm GrazvFenerbahçe | BTTS | Yes— | 56.9% | 1.76 | 3.30 | +88.0% | 3.00% |
| NEC NijmegenvOlympiakos Piraeus | Totals | Over1.5 | 74.2% | 1.35 | 2.41 | +79.1% | — |
| Kairat AlmatyvLevski Sofia | Totals | Over2.5 thin data | 32.1% | 3.12 | 5.58 | +79.0% | — |
| Sabah FAvAarhus | Totals | Over1.5 thin data | 80.9% | 1.24 | 2.12 | +71.8% | — |
One row per market per match: the side the model prefers. The two sides of a two-way line are near mirror images, so showing both would double the table without adding anything. Edges are measured against each pair de-vigged on its own, not against the match-winner margin — books load goals markets more heavily, and borrowing the 1X2 overround here would flatter every row.
Best value on this date
| Match | Selection | Model | Fair | Book | EV | Stake |
|---|
| Sabah FAvAarhus | Aarhus A thin data | 62.0% | 1.61 | 3.52 | +118.3% | — |
| CeljevArarat-Armenia | Ararat-Armenia A thin data | 29.8% | 3.35 | 6.72 | +100.5% | — |
| Kauno ŽalgirisvDinamo Zagreb | Kauno Žalgiris H thin data | 23.9% | 4.19 | 6.94 | +65.8% | — |
| FK Crvena ZvezdavHapoel Beer Sheva | Hapoel Beer Sheva A thin data | 17.5% | 5.72 | 9.17 | +60.2% | — |
| FK Crvena ZvezdavHapoel Beer Sheva | Draw thin data | 25.7% | 3.89 | 5.69 | +46.1% | — |
| Bodo/GlimtvUnion St. Gilloise | Union St. Gilloise A | 31.2% | 3.21 | 4.50 | +40.5% | 2.89% |
Stake is blank unless a selection clears every gate: positive expected value, at least 5 percentage points of edge over the de-vigged line, and not more than 25 (a disagreement that large is usually the model missing something, not an opportunity). Most rows will be blank most days. Selections marked longshot are below 10% — their EV figure divides by a very small number and should not be trusted. thin data means one side has too few matches in the model's history for its rating to mean anything; the huge edge shown is the model's ignorance, not the market's mistake.
Goal markets on this date
| Match | Market | Pick | Model | Fair | Book | EV | Stake |
|---|
| Sabah FAvAarhus | Totals | Over3.5 thin data | 37.9% | 2.64 | 7.69 | +191.1% | — |
| LyonvSparta Praha | Totals | Over3.5 | 43.3% | 2.31 | 6.59 | +185.1% | — |
| NEC NijmegenvOlympiakos Piraeus | Totals | Over3.5 | 28.7% | 3.48 | 9.18 | +163.6% | 3.00% |
| Kauno ŽalgirisvDinamo Zagreb | Totals | Over3.5 thin data | 38.1% | 2.63 | 6.85 | +160.7% | — |
| CeljevArarat-Armenia | Totals | Over3.5 thin data | 36.1% | 2.77 | 7.08 | +155.3% | — |
| NEC NijmegenvOlympiakos Piraeus | Totals | Over2.5 | 49.9% | 2.00 | 4.85 | +142.0% | — |
One row per market per match: the side the model prefers. The two sides of a two-way line are near mirror images, so showing both would double the table without adding anything. Edges are measured against each pair de-vigged on its own, not against the match-winner margin — books load goals markets more heavily, and borrowing the 1X2 overround here would flatter every row.
Kairat Almaty HOME
v Levski Sofia AWAY
15:00 · UCL · expected goals
Kairat Almaty 1.06 – 0.91 Levski Sofia
Thin data: Kairat Almaty 28 matches, Levski Sofia 8 in this model's history. Ratings that sparse sit near the league average, which flatters the weaker side badly when the two come from different divisions. Shown for completeness, not as a forecast.
Kairat Almaty 43%
· draw 29%
· Levski Sofia 28%
| Model | Market | Book odds | Edge |
|---|
| Kairat Almaty | 43.1% | 38.9% | 2.41 | +4.1pp |
| Draw | 29.1% | 28.5% | 3.24 | +0.6pp |
| Levski Sofia | 27.8% | 32.6% | 2.85 | -4.8pp |
| Over 1.5 | 58.6% | 35.5% | 2.64 | +23.2pp |
| Under 1.5 | 41.4% | 64.5% | 1.45 | -23.2pp |
| Over 2.5 | 32.1% | 17.5% | 5.58 | +14.5pp |
| Under 2.5 | 67.9% | 82.5% | 1.19 | -14.5pp |
| Over 3.5 | 14.6% | 10.3% | 9.67 | +4.3pp |
| Under 3.5 | 85.4% | 89.7% | 1.11 | -4.3pp |
| BTTS Yes | 42.5% | 30.6% | 3.20 | +12.0pp |
| BTTS No | 57.5% | 69.4% | 1.41 | -12.0pp |
Kairat Almaty clean sheet
40%
Levski Sofia clean sheet
35%
Likeliest scores: 0–0 15% · 1–0 14% · 1–1 14% · 0–1 12%
Correlated combinations
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 25% (fair 3.93); naive multiplication would say 12%, off by +106%
- Levski Sofia win + Levski Sofia clean sheet — 20% (fair 4.95); naive multiplication would say 10%, off by +93%
- Kairat Almaty win + Kairat Almaty clean sheet — 26% (fair 3.89); naive multiplication would say 15%, off by +69%
- Kairat Almaty win + Over 2.5 — 16% (fair 6.36); naive multiplication would say 12%, off by +33%
Bodo/Glimt HOME
v Union St. Gilloise AWAY
16:00 · UCL · expected goals
Bodo/Glimt 1.69 – 1.22 Union St. Gilloise
Bodo/Glimt 47%
· draw 22%
· Union St. Gilloise 31%
| Model | Market | Book odds | Edge |
|---|
| Bodo/Glimt | 46.9% | 59.8% | 1.60 | -12.8pp |
| Draw | 21.9% | 20.2% | 4.46 | +1.7pp |
| Union St. Gilloise | 31.2% | 20.0% | 4.50 | +11.2pp |
| Over 1.5 | 78.3% | 51.8% | 1.82 | +26.4pp |
| Under 1.5 | 21.7% | 48.2% | 1.96 | -26.4pp |
| Over 2.5 | 55.5% | 33.0% | 3.09 | +22.4pp |
| Under 2.5 | 44.5% | 67.0% | 1.52 | -22.4pp |
| Over 3.5 | 34.0% | 17.2% | 6.11 | +16.8pp |
| Under 3.5 | 66.0% | 82.8% | 1.27 | -16.8pp |
| BTTS Yes | 55.7% | 37.6% | 2.82 | +18.1pp |
| BTTS No | 44.3% | 62.4% | 1.70 | -18.1pp |
draw or Union St. Gil…
53%
Bodo/Glimt clean sheet
29%
Union St. Gil… clean sheet
18%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 12% · 2–1 9% · 1–0 9% · 2–0 8%
Correlated combinations
- Union St. Gil… win + Union St. Gil… clean sheet — 13% (fair 7.98); naive multiplication would say 5%, off by +150%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 33% (fair 3.07); naive multiplication would say 19%, off by +75%
- Bodo/Glimt win + Bodo/Glimt clean sheet — 24% (fair 4.25); naive multiplication would say 14%, off by +67%
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 18% (fair 5.68); naive multiplication would say 11%, off by +59%
Sabah FA HOME
v Aarhus AWAY
16:00 · UCL · expected goals
Sabah FA 1.36 – 1.73 Aarhus
Thin data: Sabah FA 2 matches, Aarhus 232 in this model's history. Ratings that sparse sit near the league average, which flatters the weaker side badly when the two come from different divisions. Shown for completeness, not as a forecast.
Sabah FA 17%
· draw 21%
· Aarhus 62%
| Model | Market | Book odds | Edge |
|---|
| Sabah FA | 17.3% | 47.5% | 1.99 | -30.2pp |
| Draw | 20.7% | 26.4% | 3.47 | -5.7pp |
| Aarhus | 62.0% | 26.0% | 3.52 | +36.0pp |
| Over 1.5 | 80.9% | 44.4% | 2.12 | +36.5pp |
| Under 1.5 | 19.1% | 55.6% | 1.69 | -36.5pp |
| Over 2.5 | 59.3% | 26.2% | 3.80 | +33.2pp |
| Under 2.5 | 40.7% | 73.8% | 1.35 | -33.2pp |
| Over 3.5 | 37.9% | 13.2% | 7.69 | +24.7pp |
| Under 3.5 | 62.1% | 86.8% | 1.17 | -24.7pp |
| BTTS Yes | 58.3% | 29.6% | 3.56 | +28.7pp |
| BTTS No | 41.7% | 70.4% | 1.49 | -28.7pp |
Likeliest scores: 1–1 11% · 1–2 9% · 0–1 7% · 2–1 7%
Correlated combinations
- Sabah FA win + Sabah FA clean sheet — 13% (fair 7.89); naive multiplication would say 5%, off by +141%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 29% (fair 3.43); naive multiplication would say 15%, off by +89%
- Aarhus win + Aarhus clean sheet — 21% (fair 4.83); naive multiplication would say 12%, off by +75%
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 16% (fair 6.20); naive multiplication would say 10%, off by +65%
Kauno Žalgiris HOME
v Dinamo Zagreb AWAY
17:00 · UCL · expected goals
Kauno Žalgiris 1.60 – 1.50 Dinamo Zagreb
Thin data: Kauno Žalgiris 3 matches, Dinamo Zagreb 81 in this model's history. Ratings that sparse sit near the league average, which flatters the weaker side badly when the two come from different divisions. Shown for completeness, not as a forecast.
Kauno Žalgiris 24%
· draw 25%
· Dinamo Zagreb 51%
| Model | Market | Book odds | Edge |
|---|
| Kauno Žalgiris | 23.9% | 12.3% | 6.94 | +11.6pp |
| Draw | 24.6% | 18.3% | 4.87 | +6.4pp |
| Dinamo Zagreb | 51.5% | 69.5% | 1.38 | -18.0pp |
| Over 1.5 | 81.1% | 48.9% | 1.92 | +32.1pp |
| Under 1.5 | 18.9% | 51.1% | 1.84 | -32.1pp |
| Over 2.5 | 59.5% | 29.9% | 3.38 | +29.6pp |
| Under 2.5 | 40.5% | 70.1% | 1.44 | -29.6pp |
| Over 3.5 | 38.1% | 15.2% | 6.85 | +22.9pp |
| Under 3.5 | 61.9% | 84.8% | 1.22 | -22.9pp |
| BTTS Yes | 58.9% | 29.6% | 3.52 | +29.3pp |
| BTTS No | 41.1% | 70.4% | 1.48 | -29.3pp |
Kauno Žalgiris or draw
49%
Kauno Žalgiris clean sheet
22%
Dinamo Zagreb clean sheet
20%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 11% · 2–1 9% · 1–2 8% · 1–0 7%
Correlated combinations
- Dinamo Zagreb win + Dinamo Zagreb clean sheet — 15% (fair 6.55); naive multiplication would say 7%, off by +112%
- Kauno Žalgiris win + Kauno Žalgiris clean sheet — 17% (fair 5.79); naive multiplication would say 9%, off by +96%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 29% (fair 3.47); naive multiplication would say 15%, off by +92%
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 16% (fair 6.17); naive multiplication would say 10%, off by +64%
NEC Nijmegen HOME
v Olympiakos Piraeus AWAY
17:30 · UCL · expected goals
NEC Nijmegen 1.17 – 1.50 Olympiakos Piraeus
NEC Nijmegen 26%
· draw 28%
· Olympiakos Piraeus 47%
| Model | Market | Book odds | Edge |
|---|
| NEC Nijmegen | 25.6% | 35.2% | 2.65 | -9.6pp |
| Draw | 27.7% | 27.7% | 3.32 | -0.0pp |
| Olympiakos Piraeus | 46.7% | 37.1% | 2.52 | +9.6pp |
| Over 1.5 | 74.2% | 38.9% | 2.41 | +35.3pp |
| Under 1.5 | 25.8% | 61.1% | 1.54 | -35.3pp |
| Over 2.5 | 49.9% | 20.4% | 4.85 | +29.5pp |
| Under 2.5 | 50.1% | 79.6% | 1.24 | -29.5pp |
| Over 3.5 | 28.7% | 11.0% | 9.18 | +17.8pp |
| Under 3.5 | 71.3% | 89.0% | 1.13 | -17.8pp |
| BTTS Yes | 52.9% | 33.7% | 2.91 | +19.2pp |
| BTTS No | 47.1% | 66.3% | 1.48 | -19.2pp |
draw or Olympiakos Pi…
74%
NEC Nijmegen clean sheet
22%
Olympiakos Pi… clean sheet
31%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 13% · 0–1 10% · 1–2 9% · 0–2 8%
Correlated combinations
- NEC Nijmegen win + NEC Nijmegen clean sheet — 15% (fair 6.74); naive multiplication would say 6%, off by +130%
- Olympiakos Pi… win + Olympiakos Pi… clean sheet — 24% (fair 4.23); naive multiplication would say 14%, off by +71%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 37% (fair 2.67); naive multiplication would say 23%, off by +63%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 41% (fair 2.42); naive multiplication would say 27%, off by +54%
FK Crvena Zvezda HOME
v Hapoel Beer Sheva AWAY
18:00 · UCL · expected goals
FK Crvena Zvezda 1.45 – 0.84 Hapoel Beer Sheva
Thin data: FK Crvena Zvezda 82 matches, Hapoel Beer Sheva 20 in this model's history. Ratings that sparse sit near the league average, which flatters the weaker side badly when the two come from different divisions. Shown for completeness, not as a forecast.
FK Crvena Zvezda 57%
· draw 26%
· Hapoel Beer Sheva 17%
| Model | Market | Book odds | Edge |
|---|
| FK Crvena Zvezda | 56.8% | 75.5% | 1.27 | -18.7pp |
| Draw | 25.7% | 15.5% | 5.69 | +10.2pp |
| Hapoel Beer Sheva | 17.5% | 9.0% | 9.17 | +8.5pp |
| Over 1.5 | 66.6% | 52.4% | 1.80 | +14.2pp |
| Under 1.5 | 33.4% | 47.6% | 1.98 | -14.2pp |
| Over 2.5 | 40.6% | 33.6% | 3.04 | +7.0pp |
| Under 2.5 | 59.4% | 66.4% | 1.54 | -7.0pp |
| Over 3.5 | 20.9% | 17.7% | 5.99 | +3.2pp |
| Under 3.5 | 79.1% | 82.3% | 1.28 | -3.2pp |
| BTTS Yes | 45.8% | 29.9% | 3.49 | +16.0pp |
| BTTS No | 54.2% | 70.1% | 1.49 | -16.0pp |
FK Crvena Zve… or draw
83%
draw or Hapoel Beer S…
43%
FK Crvena Zve… clean sheet
43%
Hapoel Beer S… clean sheet
23%
Likeliest scores: 1–0 14% · 1–1 13% · 2–0 11% · 0–0 11%
Correlated combinations
- Hapoel Beer S… win + Hapoel Beer S… clean sheet — 13% (fair 7.81); naive multiplication would say 5%, off by +157%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 31% (fair 3.20); naive multiplication would say 18%, off by +76%
- FK Crvena Zve… win + FK Crvena Zve… clean sheet — 32% (fair 3.08); naive multiplication would say 22%, off by +48%
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 23% (fair 4.26); naive multiplication would say 17%, off by +41%
Celje HOME
v Ararat-Armenia AWAY
18:15 · UCL · expected goals
Celje 1.65 – 1.36 Ararat-Armenia
Thin data: Celje 13 matches, Ararat-Armenia 12 in this model's history. Ratings that sparse sit near the league average, which flatters the weaker side badly when the two come from different divisions. Shown for completeness, not as a forecast.
Celje 43%
· draw 27%
· Ararat-Armenia 30%
| Model | Market | Book odds | Edge |
|---|
| Celje | 43.5% | 67.1% | 1.42 | -23.6pp |
| Draw | 26.7% | 20.3% | 4.40 | +6.4pp |
| Ararat-Armenia | 29.8% | 12.6% | 6.72 | +17.2pp |
| Over 1.5 | 79.7% | 44.6% | 2.11 | +35.2pp |
| Under 1.5 | 20.3% | 55.4% | 1.69 | -35.2pp |
| Over 2.5 | 57.6% | 24.5% | 4.11 | +33.1pp |
| Under 2.5 | 42.4% | 75.5% | 1.33 | -33.1pp |
| Over 3.5 | 36.1% | 14.4% | 7.08 | +21.6pp |
| Under 3.5 | 63.9% | 85.6% | 1.19 | -21.6pp |
| BTTS Yes | 57.5% | 33.0% | 2.94 | +24.4pp |
| BTTS No | 42.5% | 67.0% | 1.45 | -24.4pp |
draw or Ararat-Armenia
57%
Ararat-Armenia clean sheet
19%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 12% · 2–1 9% · 1–0 8% · 1–2 8%
Correlated combinations
- Ararat-Armenia win + Ararat-Armenia clean sheet — 14% (fair 7.24); naive multiplication would say 6%, off by +131%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 31% (fair 3.27); naive multiplication would say 17%, off by +84%
- Celje win + Celje clean sheet — 20% (fair 4.93); naive multiplication would say 11%, off by +80%
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 17% (fair 5.91); naive multiplication would say 10%, off by +61%
Sturm Graz HOME
v Fenerbahçe AWAY
18:30 · UCL · expected goals
Sturm Graz 1.36 – 1.60 Fenerbahçe
Sturm Graz 30%
· draw 22%
· Fenerbahçe 48%
| Model | Market | Book odds | Edge |
|---|
| Sturm Graz | 30.1% | 24.5% | 3.73 | +5.6pp |
| Draw | 21.6% | 24.5% | 3.73 | -2.9pp |
| Fenerbahçe | 48.3% | 51.0% | 1.86 | -2.7pp |
| Over 1.5 | 79.0% | 45.2% | 2.08 | +33.7pp |
| Under 1.5 | 21.0% | 54.8% | 1.72 | -33.7pp |
| Over 2.5 | 56.4% | 26.3% | 3.81 | +30.1pp |
| Under 2.5 | 43.6% | 73.7% | 1.36 | -30.1pp |
| Over 3.5 | 34.9% | 15.2% | 6.72 | +19.7pp |
| Under 3.5 | 65.1% | 84.8% | 1.21 | -19.7pp |
| BTTS Yes | 56.9% | 32.1% | 3.30 | +24.8pp |
| BTTS No | 43.1% | 67.9% | 1.56 | -24.8pp |
Sturm Graz clean sheet
20%
Fenerbahçe clean sheet
26%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 12% · 1–2 9% · 0–1 8% · 2–1 8%
Correlated combinations
- Sturm Graz win + Sturm Graz clean sheet — 15% (fair 6.86); naive multiplication would say 7%, off by +124%
- Fenerbahçe win + Fenerbahçe clean sheet — 20% (fair 5.00); naive multiplication would say 11%, off by +83%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 32% (fair 3.17); naive multiplication would say 17%, off by +81%
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 17% (fair 5.73); naive multiplication would say 11%, off by +59%
Lyon HOME
v Sparta Praha AWAY
19:00 · UCL · expected goals
Lyon 2.21 – 1.13 Sparta Praha
Lyon 60%
· draw 21%
· Sparta Praha 18%
| Model | Market | Book odds | Edge |
|---|
| Lyon | 60.4% | 63.8% | 1.50 | -3.3pp |
| Draw | 21.1% | 20.9% | 4.31 | +0.2pp |
| Sparta Praha | 18.5% | 15.3% | 5.71 | +3.1pp |
| Over 1.5 | 84.1% | 46.4% | 2.02 | +37.7pp |
| Under 1.5 | 15.9% | 53.6% | 1.75 | -37.7pp |
| Over 2.5 | 64.4% | 27.2% | 3.70 | +37.2pp |
| Under 2.5 | 35.6% | 72.8% | 1.38 | -37.2pp |
| Over 3.5 | 43.3% | 15.7% | 6.59 | +27.6pp |
| Under 3.5 | 56.7% | 84.3% | 1.23 | -27.6pp |
| BTTS Yes | 57.7% | 29.9% | 3.51 | +27.7pp |
| BTTS No | 42.3% | 70.1% | 1.50 | -27.7pp |
Sparta Praha clean sheet
11%
Likeliest scores: 2–1 10% · 1–1 9% · 2–0 9% · 1–0 7%
Correlated combinations
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 26% (fair 3.88); naive multiplication would say 14%, off by +88%
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 13% (fair 7.64); naive multiplication would say 7%, off by +83%
- Lyon win + Lyon clean sheet — 28% (fair 3.54); naive multiplication would say 20%, off by +43%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 52% (fair 1.94); naive multiplication would say 39%, off by +31%