Model output, not advice. These are probabilities from a
statistical model, published for transparency about how it performs. They are
not tips and not financial advice. In backtests this model does not
reliably beat closing prices, which is the only benchmark that matters, so
expect selections here to lose money over time. 18+. Gambling is addictive; if
it stops being a modelling exercise, stop.
Best value today across all competitions, ranked by expected
value rather than by how likely they are to win
| League | Match | Selection | Model | Fair | Book | EV | Stake |
|---|
| NOR1 | KFUM OslovLillestrom | KFUM Oslo H | 55.8% | 1.79 | 2.76 | +53.9% | 3.00% |
| J1 | Vissel KobevFC Tokyo | Vissel Kobe H | 54.0% | 1.85 | 2.30 | +24.0% | 3.00% |
| SP1 | AlavesvGetafe | Getafe A | 34.9% | 2.86 | 3.53 | +23.4% | 2.31% |
| MLS | Atlanta United FCvNew York Red Bulls | New York Red Bulls A | 33.3% | 3.00 | 3.67 | +22.2% | 2.08% |
| MLS | Atlanta United FCvNew York Red Bulls | Draw | 30.2% | 3.31 | 4.03 | +21.8% | 1.80% |
| N1 | ExcelsiorvPSV Eindhoven | PSV Eindhoven A | 74.4% | 1.34 | 1.64 | +21.7% | 3.00% |
| SP1 | SevillavRayo Vallecano | Rayo Vallecano A | 36.9% | 2.71 | 3.28 | +20.9% | 2.29% |
| J1 | UrawavSanfrecce Hiroshima | Urawa H | 30.6% | 3.27 | 3.84 | +17.4% | 1.53% |
| J1 | Shimizu S-pulsevYokohama F. Marinos | Yokohama F. Marinos A | 40.6% | 2.46 | 2.87 | +16.3% | 2.19% |
| BEL1 | KortrijkvAntwerp | Antwerp A | 44.3% | 2.26 | 2.60 | +15.1% | 2.37% |
| AUT1 | Sturm GrazvSCR Altach | Sturm Graz H | 65.5% | 1.53 | 1.73 | +13.1% | 3.00% |
| BRA1 | FluminensevPalmeiras | Palmeiras A | 42.6% | 2.35 | 2.58 | +9.9% | 1.57% |
| MLS | CharlottevColumbus Crew | Columbus Crew A | 37.6% | 2.66 | 2.91 | +9.7% | 1.27% |
| MLS | CF MontrealvDC United | CF Montreal H | 48.9% | 2.04 | 2.21 | +8.1% | 1.67% |
| MLS | Orlando City SCvFC Cincinnati | Orlando City SC H | 47.9% | 2.09 | 2.21 | +5.8% | 1.20% |
| BRA1 | Atletico ParanaensevRB Bragantino | RB Bragantino A | 28.3% | 3.54 | 3.68 | +4.1% | — |
| TUR1 | KasımpaşavTrabzonspor | Kasımpaşa H | 25.6% | 3.91 | 4.06 | +3.7% | — |
| TUR1 | KonyasporvRizespor | Konyaspor H | 43.3% | 2.31 | 2.38 | +3.1% | — |
| TUR1 | Gençlerbirliği S.K.vFenerbahçe | Fenerbahçe A | 70.2% | 1.42 | 1.46 | +2.5% | 1.38% |
| BEL1 | OH LeuvenvClub Brugge KV | Club Brugge KV A | 68.3% | 1.46 | 1.49 | +2.0% | — |
| BEL1 | GenkvKVC Westerlo | Genk H | 62.8% | 1.59 | 1.62 | +1.6% | — |
| J1 | KashimavNagoya Grampus | Kashima H | 58.4% | 1.71 | 1.72 | +0.6% | — |
| J1 | Avispa FukuokavCerezo Osaka | Draw | 30.5% | 3.28 | 3.27 | -0.5% | — |
| MLS | Toronto FCvNew England Revolution | Draw | 27.2% | 3.68 | 3.58 | -2.7% | — |
| BEL1 | Union St. GilloisevZulte Waregem | Union St. Gilloise H | 72.8% | 1.37 | 1.34 | -2.7% | — |
Stake is blank unless a selection clears every gate: positive expected value, at least 5 percentage points of edge over the de-vigged line, and not more than 25 (a disagreement that large is usually the model missing something, not an opportunity). Most rows will be blank most days. Selections marked longshot are below 10% — their EV figure divides by a very small number and should not be trusted. thin data means one side has too few matches in the model's history for its rating to mean anything; the huge edge shown is the model's ignorance, not the market's mistake.
Best goal markets over/under and both teams to score,
ranked by expected value
Kept separate from
the match-winner table because they are a different bet: independent of who
wins, driven by the total-goals distribution rather than the difference
between the two sides. Worth a look for two reasons — a goal model is being
asked the question it was actually built to answer, and a totals line is far
less correlated with the rest of a slip than another favourite. Against that,
books charge more margin here than on the match winner, so a given edge has
further to travel.
How much this model actually knows about goals. Measured on out-of-fold predictions during training, not on the fixtures below:
- Totals: 0.6077 log loss vs 0.6906 for always predicting the base rate — clearly better than the base rate out of sample.
- BTTS: 0.6871 log loss vs 0.6903 for always predicting the base rate — barely better than the base rate out of sample. Predictions are shrunk toward the base rate (T=1.42) because the raw model was overconfident.
| League | Match | Market | Pick | Model | Fair | Book | EV | Stake |
|---|
| TUR1 | KasımpaşavTrabzonspor | Totals | Over3.5 | 36.1% | 2.77 | 8.06 | +191.2% | 3.00% |
| BEL1 | GenkvKVC Westerlo | Totals | Over3.5 | 38.4% | 2.61 | 7.28 | +179.6% | 3.00% |
| NOR1 | KFUM OslovLillestrom | Totals | Over2.5 | 50.5% | 1.98 | 5.40 | +172.8% | — |
| BEL1 | OH LeuvenvClub Brugge KV | BTTS | Yes— | 54.3% | 1.84 | 4.96 | +169.5% | — |
| BEL1 | OH LeuvenvClub Brugge KV | Totals | Over3.5 | 37.5% | 2.66 | 7.08 | +165.7% | 3.00% |
| BRA1 | Atletico ParanaensevRB Bragantino | Totals | Over2.5 | 44.5% | 2.24 | 5.91 | +163.3% | — |
| BEL1 | GenkvKVC Westerlo | BTTS | Yes— | 56.3% | 1.78 | 4.61 | +159.4% | — |
| TUR1 | KonyasporvRizespor | Totals | Over3.5 | 31.7% | 3.15 | 8.17 | +159.3% | 3.00% |
| TUR1 | Gençlerbirliği S.K.vFenerbahçe | Totals | Over3.5 | 33.6% | 2.98 | 7.48 | +151.0% | 3.00% |
| BEL1 | KortrijkvAntwerp | Totals | Over3.5 | 24.8% | 4.03 | 10.06 | +149.7% | 3.00% |
| BEL1 | Union St. GilloisevZulte Waregem | Totals | Over3.5 | 35.3% | 2.83 | 7.03 | +147.9% | 3.00% |
| J1 | Shimizu S-pulsevYokohama F. Marinos | BTTS | Yes— | 55.3% | 1.81 | 4.47 | +147.2% | — |
| SP1 | AlavesvGetafe | Totals | Over2.5 | 28.8% | 3.47 | 8.53 | +145.8% | 3.00% |
| MLS | CF MontrealvDC United | Totals | Over3.5 | 34.4% | 2.90 | 7.08 | +143.7% | 3.00% |
| TUR1 | KasımpaşavTrabzonspor | Totals | Over2.5 | 57.6% | 1.73 | 4.19 | +141.5% | — |
| BRA1 | FluminensevPalmeiras | Totals | Over2.5 | 40.0% | 2.50 | 5.98 | +139.3% | 3.00% |
| N1 | ExcelsiorvPSV Eindhoven | Totals | Over3.5 | 57.8% | 1.73 | 4.06 | +134.6% | — |
| SP1 | SevillavRayo Vallecano | Totals | Over2.5 | 38.7% | 2.58 | 6.05 | +134.6% | 3.00% |
| TUR1 | Gençlerbirliği S.K.vFenerbahçe | Totals | Over2.5 | 55.0% | 1.82 | 4.17 | +129.7% | — |
| TUR1 | KonyasporvRizespor | Totals | Over2.5 | 53.1% | 1.88 | 4.31 | +129.0% | — |
| TUR1 | KasımpaşavTrabzonspor | BTTS | Yes— | 57.4% | 1.74 | 3.84 | +120.4% | — |
| N1 | UtrechtvAZ Alkmaar | Totals | Over2.5 | 54.0% | 1.85 | 4.05 | +118.6% | — |
| BEL1 | KortrijkvAntwerp | Totals | Over2.5 | 45.4% | 2.20 | 4.81 | +118.6% | 3.00% |
| MLS | CF MontrealvDC United | Totals | Over2.5 | 55.9% | 1.79 | 3.90 | +117.8% | — |
| TUR1 | Gaziantep FKvAlanyaspor | Totals | Over2.5 | 49.5% | 2.02 | 4.40 | +117.6% | — |
One row per market per match: the side the model prefers. The two sides of a two-way line are near mirror images, so showing both would double the table without adding anything. Edges are measured against each pair de-vigged on its own, not against the match-winner margin — books load goals markets more heavily, and borrowing the 1X2 overround here would flatter every row.
Same-match combinations priced from the joint distribution,
so correlation is handled correctly
The
vs naive column is how far a bookmaker would be off if they priced the
combination by multiplying the two legs together. A large positive number means
the events happen together more often than independence implies — draws and
low-scoring games, for instance — so a multiplied price is too generous.
| Match | Combination | Model | Fair | vs naive | Book | EV |
|---|
| UdinesevPadova | Away + Away clean sheet | 10.8% | 9.25 | +185% | — | — |
| Vissel KobevFC Tokyo | Away + Away clean sheet | 12.0% | 8.37 | +169% | — | — |
| Willem IIvNEC Nijmegen | Home + Home clean sheet | 11.0% | 9.06 | +167% | — | — |
| KFUM OslovLillestrom | Away + Away clean sheet | 11.9% | 8.41 | +166% | — | — |
| Kaizer ChiefsvMamelodi Sundowns | Home + Home clean sheet | 12.5% | 8.02 | +161% | — | — |
| CF MontrealvDC United | Away + Away clean sheet | 11.9% | 8.37 | +158% | — | — |
| TorinovCarrarese | Away + Away clean sheet | 12.6% | 7.95 | +158% | — | — |
| Durban CityvRichards Bay | BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 | 17.9% | 5.59 | +151% | — | — |
| Sekhukhune UnitedvPolokwane City | BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 | 18.0% | 5.56 | +149% | — | — |
| Kawasaki FrontalevKyoto Sanga | Away + Away clean sheet | 11.7% | 8.58 | +149% | — | — |
| Fortuna SittardvCambuur | Away + Away clean sheet | 13.5% | 7.41 | +142% | — | — |
| Orlando City SCvFC Cincinnati | Away + Away clean sheet | 13.2% | 7.55 | +140% | — | — |
| KasımpaşavTrabzonspor | Home + Home clean sheet | 13.5% | 7.41 | +134% | — | — |
| KonyasporvRizespor | Away + Away clean sheet | 14.2% | 7.04 | +133% | — | — |
| AlvercavEstrela | Away + Away clean sheet | 15.0% | 6.68 | +132% | — | — |
| Atletico ParanaensevRB Bragantino | Away + Away clean sheet | 15.4% | 6.49 | +128% | — | — |
| ExcelsiorvPSV Eindhoven | BTTS No + Under 2.5 | 16.4% | 6.10 | +126% | — | — |
| AlavesvGetafe | BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 | 22.6% | 4.43 | +121% | — | — |
| KortrijkvAntwerp | Home + Home clean sheet | 16.3% | 6.14 | +119% | — | — |
| Austria LustenauvWolfsberger AC | Home + Home clean sheet | 16.0% | 6.27 | +118% | — | — |
Accumulators shown with what they cost you
Legs from different
matches are independent, so the probabilities multiply — and so does the
bookmaker's margin. The final column is the share of fair value lost to
compounding vig at 5% per leg, before your model is even wrong about anything.
Accumulators are on this page because people want them, not because they are a
good idea.
| Legs | N | Model | Fair | Book | EV | Margin cost |
|---|
KFUM Oslo v Lillestrom — over 2.5 goals
OH Leuven v Club Brugge KV — both teams to score
Genk v KVC Westerlo — both teams to score | 3 | 15.4% | 6.48 | 123.54 | +1807.1% | −14% |
KFUM Oslo v Lillestrom — over 2.5 goals
OH Leuven v Club Brugge KV — both teams to score
Shimizu S-pulse v Yokohama F. Marinos — both teams to score | 3 | 15.2% | 6.59 | 119.78 | +1717.4% | −14% |
Genk v KVC Westerlo — both teams to score
Shimizu S-pulse v Yokohama F. Marinos — both teams to score
Kasımpaşa v Trabzonspor — over 2.5 goals | 3 | 17.9% | 5.57 | 86.34 | +1448.8% | −14% |
Kasımpaşa v Trabzonspor — over 2.5 goals
Gençlerbirliği S.K. v Fenerbahçe — over 2.5 goals
Konyaspor v Rizespor — over 2.5 goals | 3 | 16.9% | 5.93 | 75.39 | +1170.4% | −14% |
Gençlerbirliği S.K. v Fenerbahçe — over 2.5 goals
Konyaspor v Rizespor — over 2.5 goals
Kasımpaşa v Trabzonspor — both teams to score | 3 | 16.8% | 5.96 | 69.05 | +1059.4% | −14% |
Kasımpaşa v Trabzonspor — both teams to score
Utrecht v AZ Alkmaar — over 2.5 goals
Kortrijk v Antwerp — over 2.5 goals | 3 | 14.1% | 7.10 | 74.76 | +953.2% | −14% |
Utrecht v AZ Alkmaar — over 2.5 goals
Kortrijk v Antwerp — over 2.5 goals
CF Montreal v DC United — over 2.5 goals | 3 | 13.7% | 7.29 | 75.89 | +941.0% | −14% |
CF Montreal v DC United — over 2.5 goals
Gaziantep FK v Alanyaspor — over 2.5 goals
Utrecht v AZ Alkmaar — both teams to score | 3 | 15.4% | 6.50 | 65.75 | +912.1% | −14% |
Gaziantep FK v Alanyaspor — over 2.5 goals
Utrecht v AZ Alkmaar — both teams to score
Charlotte v Columbus Crew — over 2.5 goals | 3 | 14.8% | 6.75 | 65.73 | +873.8% | −14% |
Charlotte v Columbus Crew — over 2.5 goals
Gençlerbirliği S.K. v Fenerbahçe — both teams to score
Excelsior v PSV Eindhoven — both teams to score | 3 | 18.0% | 5.56 | 50.05 | +799.8% | −14% |
By competition 40 fixtures across
12 competitions ·
81/120 selections priced
Best value in AUT1
| Match | Selection | Model | Fair | Book | EV | Stake |
|---|
| Sturm GrazvSCR Altach | Sturm Graz H | 65.5% | 1.53 | 1.73 | +13.1% | 3.00% |
| Austria LustenauvWolfsberger AC | Draw | 31.2% | 3.20 | 3.00 | -6.3% | — |
| Sturm GrazvSCR Altach | Draw | 20.9% | 4.78 | 3.73 | -21.9% | — |
| Sturm GrazvSCR Altach | SCR Altach A | 13.6% | 7.35 | 4.56 | -38.0% | — |
| Austria LustenauvWolfsberger AC | Wolfsberger AC A | 38.7% | 2.59 | 1.50 | -42.0% | — |
| Austria LustenauvWolfsberger AC | Austria Lustenau H | 30.1% | 3.32 | 1.50 | -54.9% | — |
Stake is blank unless a selection clears every gate: positive expected value, at least 5 percentage points of edge over the de-vigged line, and not more than 25 (a disagreement that large is usually the model missing something, not an opportunity). Most rows will be blank most days. Selections marked longshot are below 10% — their EV figure divides by a very small number and should not be trusted. thin data means one side has too few matches in the model's history for its rating to mean anything; the huge edge shown is the model's ignorance, not the market's mistake.
Goal markets in AUT1
| Match | Market | Pick | Model | Fair | Book | EV | Stake |
|---|
| Sturm GrazvSCR Altach | Totals | Over2.5 | 45.8% | 2.18 | 4.41 | +101.9% | 3.00% |
| Sturm GrazvSCR Altach | BTTS | Yes— | 45.8% | 2.18 | 4.24 | +94.0% | 3.00% |
| Sturm GrazvSCR Altach | Totals | Over3.5 | 25.1% | 3.98 | 6.98 | +75.2% | 3.00% |
| Sturm GrazvSCR Altach | Totals | Over1.5 | 70.9% | 1.41 | 2.28 | +61.6% | — |
One row per market per match: the side the model prefers. The two sides of a two-way line are near mirror images, so showing both would double the table without adding anything. Edges are measured against each pair de-vigged on its own, not against the match-winner margin — books load goals markets more heavily, and borrowing the 1X2 overround here would flatter every row.
Austria Lustenau HOME
v Wolfsberger AC AWAY
15:00 · AUT1 · expected goals
Austria Lustenau 1.23 – 1.46 Wolfsberger AC
Austria Lustenau 30%
· draw 31%
· Wolfsberger AC 39%
| Model | Market | Book odds | Edge |
|---|
| Austria Lustenau | 30.1% | 42.5% | 1.50 | -12.5pp |
| Draw | 31.2% | 14.9% | 3.00 | +16.3pp |
| Wolfsberger AC | 38.7% | 42.5% | 1.50 | -3.9pp |
Austria Luste… or draw
61%
draw or Wolfsberger AC
70%
Austria Luste… clean sheet
23%
Wolfsberger AC clean sheet
29%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 13% · 0–1 9% · 1–2 9% · 1–0 8%
Correlated combinations
- Austria Luste… win + Austria Luste… clean sheet — 16% (fair 6.27); naive multiplication would say 7%, off by +118%
- Wolfsberger AC win + Wolfsberger AC clean sheet — 22% (fair 4.57); naive multiplication would say 12%, off by +79%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 37% (fair 2.71); naive multiplication would say 22%, off by +65%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 42% (fair 2.37); naive multiplication would say 28%, off by +52%
Sturm Graz HOME
v SCR Altach AWAY
17:30 · AUT1 · expected goals
Sturm Graz 1.75 – 0.75 SCR Altach
Sturm Graz 65%
· draw 21%
· SCR Altach 14%
| Model | Market | Book odds | Edge |
|---|
| Sturm Graz | 65.5% | 55.3% | 1.73 | +10.1pp |
| Draw | 20.9% | 24.7% | 3.73 | -3.8pp |
| SCR Altach | 13.6% | 20.0% | 4.56 | -6.4pp |
| Over 1.5 | 70.9% | 44.4% | 2.28 | +26.5pp |
| Under 1.5 | 29.1% | 55.6% | 1.82 | -26.5pp |
| Over 2.5 | 45.8% | 23.6% | 4.41 | +22.1pp |
| Under 2.5 | 54.2% | 76.4% | 1.37 | -22.1pp |
| Over 3.5 | 25.1% | 14.8% | 6.98 | +10.3pp |
| Under 3.5 | 74.9% | 85.2% | 1.21 | -10.3pp |
| BTTS Yes | 45.8% | 24.3% | 4.24 | +21.5pp |
| BTTS No | 54.2% | 75.7% | 1.36 | -21.5pp |
Sturm Graz clean sheet
47%
SCR Altach clean sheet
17%
Likeliest scores: 1–0 14% · 2–0 13% · 1–1 11% · 2–1 9%
Correlated combinations
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 33% (fair 3.05); naive multiplication would say 20%, off by +63%
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 20% (fair 5.02); naive multiplication would say 13%, off by +52%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 43% (fair 2.32); naive multiplication would say 30%, off by +42%
- Sturm Graz win + Sturm Graz clean sheet — 39% (fair 2.59); naive multiplication would say 29%, off by +34%
Best value in BEL1
| Match | Selection | Model | Fair | Book | EV | Stake |
|---|
| KortrijkvAntwerp | Antwerp A | 44.3% | 2.26 | 2.60 | +15.1% | 2.37% |
| OH LeuvenvClub Brugge KV | Club Brugge KV A | 68.3% | 1.46 | 1.49 | +2.0% | — |
| GenkvKVC Westerlo | Genk H | 62.8% | 1.59 | 1.62 | +1.6% | — |
| Union St. GilloisevZulte Waregem | Union St. Gilloise H | 72.8% | 1.37 | 1.34 | -2.7% | — |
| KortrijkvAntwerp | Draw | 28.7% | 3.48 | 3.31 | -5.1% | — |
| Union St. GilloisevZulte Waregem | Draw | 17.4% | 5.76 | 4.90 | -14.9% | — |
Stake is blank unless a selection clears every gate: positive expected value, at least 5 percentage points of edge over the de-vigged line, and not more than 25 (a disagreement that large is usually the model missing something, not an opportunity). Most rows will be blank most days. Selections marked longshot are below 10% — their EV figure divides by a very small number and should not be trusted. thin data means one side has too few matches in the model's history for its rating to mean anything; the huge edge shown is the model's ignorance, not the market's mistake.
Goal markets in BEL1
| Match | Market | Pick | Model | Fair | Book | EV | Stake |
|---|
| GenkvKVC Westerlo | Totals | Over3.5 | 38.4% | 2.61 | 7.28 | +179.6% | 3.00% |
| OH LeuvenvClub Brugge KV | BTTS | Yes— | 54.3% | 1.84 | 4.96 | +169.5% | — |
| OH LeuvenvClub Brugge KV | Totals | Over3.5 | 37.5% | 2.66 | 7.08 | +165.7% | 3.00% |
| GenkvKVC Westerlo | BTTS | Yes— | 56.3% | 1.78 | 4.61 | +159.4% | — |
| KortrijkvAntwerp | Totals | Over3.5 | 24.8% | 4.03 | 10.06 | +149.7% | 3.00% |
| Union St. GilloisevZulte Waregem | Totals | Over3.5 | 35.3% | 2.83 | 7.03 | +147.9% | 3.00% |
One row per market per match: the side the model prefers. The two sides of a two-way line are near mirror images, so showing both would double the table without adding anything. Edges are measured against each pair de-vigged on its own, not against the match-winner margin — books load goals markets more heavily, and borrowing the 1X2 overround here would flatter every row.
Union St. Gilloise HOME
v Zulte Waregem AWAY
14:00 · BEL1 · expected goals
Union St. Gilloise 2.15 – 0.82 Zulte Waregem
Union St. Gilloise 73%
· draw 17%
· Zulte Waregem 10%
| Model | Market | Book odds | Edge |
|---|
| Union St. Gilloise | 72.8% | 72.0% | 1.34 | +0.8pp |
| Draw | 17.4% | 18.4% | 4.90 | -1.1pp |
| Zulte Waregem | 9.8% | 9.6% | 8.81 | +0.2pp |
| Over 1.5 | 79.1% | 46.1% | 2.05 | +33.0pp |
| Under 1.5 | 20.9% | 53.9% | 1.75 | -33.0pp |
| Over 2.5 | 56.8% | 32.9% | 3.04 | +23.8pp |
| Under 2.5 | 43.2% | 67.1% | 1.49 | -23.8pp |
| Over 3.5 | 35.3% | 15.0% | 7.03 | +20.3pp |
| Under 3.5 | 64.7% | 85.0% | 1.24 | -20.3pp |
| BTTS Yes | 49.9% | 27.0% | 3.43 | +22.9pp |
| BTTS No | 50.1% | 73.0% | 1.27 | -22.9pp |
Union St. Gil… or draw
90%
Union St. Gil… clean sheet
44%
Zulte Waregem clean sheet
12%
Likeliest scores: 2–0 12% · 1–0 11% · 2–1 10% · 1–1 9%
Correlated combinations
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 15% (fair 6.70); naive multiplication would say 8%, off by +76%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 34% (fair 2.98); naive multiplication would say 22%, off by +56%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 40% (fair 2.47); naive multiplication would say 28%, off by +42%
- Union St. Gil… win + Union St. Gil… clean sheet — 38% (fair 2.60); naive multiplication would say 30%, off by +30%
Kortrijk HOME
v Antwerp AWAY
16:15 · BEL1 · expected goals
Kortrijk 1.11 – 1.38 Antwerp
Kortrijk 27%
· draw 29%
· Antwerp 44%
| Model | Market | Book odds | Edge |
|---|
| Kortrijk | 27.0% | 35.8% | 2.62 | -8.8pp |
| Draw | 28.7% | 28.0% | 3.31 | +0.7pp |
| Antwerp | 44.3% | 36.2% | 2.60 | +8.2pp |
| Over 1.5 | 70.7% | 37.5% | 2.51 | +33.2pp |
| Under 1.5 | 29.3% | 62.5% | 1.51 | -33.2pp |
| Over 2.5 | 45.4% | 20.5% | 4.81 | +24.9pp |
| Under 2.5 | 54.6% | 79.5% | 1.24 | -24.9pp |
| Over 3.5 | 24.8% | 9.9% | 10.06 | +14.9pp |
| Under 3.5 | 75.2% | 90.1% | 1.10 | -14.9pp |
| BTTS Yes | 50.4% | 27.3% | 3.39 | +23.1pp |
| BTTS No | 49.6% | 72.7% | 1.27 | -23.1pp |
Likeliest scores: 1–1 13% · 0–1 11% · 0–0 9% · 1–2 9%
Correlated combinations
- Kortrijk win + Kortrijk clean sheet — 16% (fair 6.14); naive multiplication would say 7%, off by +119%
- Antwerp win + Antwerp clean sheet — 24% (fair 4.13); naive multiplication would say 14%, off by +72%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 37% (fair 2.68); naive multiplication would say 23%, off by +63%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 42% (fair 2.41); naive multiplication would say 27%, off by +53%
Genk HOME
v KVC Westerlo AWAY
18:45 · BEL1 · expected goals
Genk 1.99 – 1.13 KVC Westerlo
Genk 63%
· draw 20%
· KVC Westerlo 17%
| Model | Market | Book odds | Edge |
|---|
| Genk | 62.8% | 59.0% | 1.62 | +3.8pp |
| Draw | 20.2% | 22.3% | 4.09 | -2.1pp |
| KVC Westerlo | 17.0% | 18.7% | 4.82 | -1.7pp |
| Over 1.5 | 81.2% | 48.4% | 1.95 | +32.8pp |
| Under 1.5 | 18.8% | 51.6% | 1.83 | -32.8pp |
| Over 2.5 | 59.8% | 30.7% | 3.33 | +29.1pp |
| Under 2.5 | 40.2% | 69.3% | 1.47 | -29.1pp |
| Over 3.5 | 38.4% | 14.4% | 7.28 | +23.9pp |
| Under 3.5 | 61.6% | 85.6% | 1.23 | -23.9pp |
| BTTS Yes | 56.3% | 22.1% | 4.61 | +34.2pp |
| BTTS No | 43.7% | 77.9% | 1.30 | -34.2pp |
KVC Westerlo clean sheet
14%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 10% · 2–1 10% · 2–0 9% · 1–0 8%
Correlated combinations
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 29% (fair 3.40); naive multiplication would say 16%, off by +80%
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 15% (fair 6.57); naive multiplication would say 9%, off by +71%
- Genk win + Genk clean sheet — 27% (fair 3.65); naive multiplication would say 18%, off by +50%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 48% (fair 2.06); naive multiplication would say 35%, off by +37%
OH Leuven HOME
v Club Brugge KV AWAY
18:45 · BEL1 · expected goals
OH Leuven 1.02 – 2.06 Club Brugge KV
OH Leuven 14%
· draw 18%
· Club Brugge KV 68%
| Model | Market | Book odds | Edge |
|---|
| OH Leuven | 13.7% | 14.9% | 5.95 | -1.1pp |
| Draw | 18.0% | 21.0% | 4.34 | -3.0pp |
| Club Brugge KV | 68.3% | 64.1% | 1.49 | +4.1pp |
| Over 1.5 | 80.7% | 48.6% | 1.94 | +32.1pp |
| Under 1.5 | 19.3% | 51.4% | 1.84 | -32.1pp |
| Over 2.5 | 59.0% | 31.0% | 3.29 | +28.0pp |
| Under 2.5 | 41.0% | 69.0% | 1.48 | -28.0pp |
| Over 3.5 | 37.5% | 14.8% | 7.08 | +22.7pp |
| Under 3.5 | 62.5% | 85.2% | 1.23 | -22.7pp |
| BTTS Yes | 54.3% | 20.5% | 4.96 | +33.8pp |
| BTTS No | 45.7% | 79.5% | 1.28 | -33.8pp |
draw or Club Brugge KV
86%
Club Brugge KV clean sheet
36%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 10% · 1–2 10% · 0–2 10% · 0–1 9%
Correlated combinations
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 15% (fair 6.63); naive multiplication would say 9%, off by +73%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 31% (fair 3.27); naive multiplication would say 18%, off by +71%
- Club Brugge KV win + Club Brugge KV clean sheet — 31% (fair 3.21); naive multiplication would say 22%, off by +41%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 46% (fair 2.17); naive multiplication would say 33%, off by +38%
Best value in BRA1
| Match | Selection | Model | Fair | Book | EV | Stake |
|---|
| FluminensevPalmeiras | Palmeiras A | 42.6% | 2.35 | 2.58 | +9.9% | 1.57% |
| Atletico ParanaensevRB Bragantino | RB Bragantino A | 28.3% | 3.54 | 3.68 | +4.1% | — |
| Atletico ParanaensevRB Bragantino | Atletico Paranaense H | 44.2% | 2.26 | 2.04 | -9.8% | — |
| Atletico ParanaensevRB Bragantino | Draw | 27.5% | 3.64 | 3.25 | -10.5% | — |
| FluminensevPalmeiras | Fluminense H | 30.6% | 3.26 | 2.81 | -14.0% | — |
| FluminensevPalmeiras | Draw | 26.8% | 3.73 | 3.09 | -17.3% | — |
Stake is blank unless a selection clears every gate: positive expected value, at least 5 percentage points of edge over the de-vigged line, and not more than 25 (a disagreement that large is usually the model missing something, not an opportunity). Most rows will be blank most days. Selections marked longshot are below 10% — their EV figure divides by a very small number and should not be trusted. thin data means one side has too few matches in the model's history for its rating to mean anything; the huge edge shown is the model's ignorance, not the market's mistake.
Goal markets in BRA1
| Match | Market | Pick | Model | Fair | Book | EV | Stake |
|---|
| Atletico ParanaensevRB Bragantino | Totals | Over2.5 | 44.5% | 2.24 | 5.91 | +163.3% | — |
| FluminensevPalmeiras | Totals | Over2.5 | 40.0% | 2.50 | 5.98 | +139.3% | 3.00% |
| Atletico ParanaensevRB Bragantino | Totals | Over3.5 | 24.1% | 4.15 | 8.70 | +109.5% | 3.00% |
| FluminensevPalmeiras | Totals | Over3.5 | 20.4% | 4.90 | 8.75 | +78.7% | 2.54% |
| Atletico ParanaensevRB Bragantino | Totals | Over1.5 | 70.0% | 1.43 | 2.45 | +71.2% | — |
| FluminensevPalmeiras | Totals | Over1.5 | 66.1% | 1.51 | 2.54 | +67.9% | — |
One row per market per match: the side the model prefers. The two sides of a two-way line are near mirror images, so showing both would double the table without adding anything. Edges are measured against each pair de-vigged on its own, not against the match-winner margin — books load goals markets more heavily, and borrowing the 1X2 overround here would flatter every row.
Fluminense HOME
v Palmeiras AWAY
19:30 · BRA1 · expected goals
Fluminense 1.04 – 1.23 Palmeiras
Fluminense 31%
· draw 27%
· Palmeiras 43%
| Model | Market | Book odds | Edge |
|---|
| Fluminense | 30.6% | 33.4% | 2.81 | -2.7pp |
| Draw | 26.8% | 30.2% | 3.09 | -3.4pp |
| Palmeiras | 42.6% | 36.4% | 2.58 | +6.2pp |
| Over 1.5 | 66.1% | 36.9% | 2.54 | +29.2pp |
| Under 1.5 | 33.9% | 63.1% | 1.48 | -29.2pp |
| Over 2.5 | 40.0% | 15.6% | 5.98 | +24.4pp |
| Under 2.5 | 60.0% | 84.4% | 1.11 | -24.4pp |
| Over 3.5 | 20.4% | 11.4% | 8.75 | +9.0pp |
| Under 3.5 | 79.6% | 88.6% | 1.12 | -9.0pp |
| BTTS Yes | 47.4% | 32.5% | 3.01 | +14.9pp |
| BTTS No | 52.6% | 67.5% | 1.45 | -14.9pp |
Fluminense clean sheet
29%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 14% · 0–1 12% · 0–0 11% · 1–0 10%
Correlated combinations
- Fluminense win + Fluminense clean sheet — 18% (fair 5.45); naive multiplication would say 9%, off by +106%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 33% (fair 3.07); naive multiplication would say 18%, off by +77%
- Palmeiras win + Palmeiras clean sheet — 24% (fair 4.09); naive multiplication would say 14%, off by +73%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 47% (fair 2.14); naive multiplication would say 32%, off by +44%
Atletico Paranaense HOME
v RB Bragantino AWAY
21:30 · BRA1 · expected goals
Atletico Paranaense 1.40 – 1.05 RB Bragantino
Atletico Paranaense 44%
· draw 27%
· RB Bragantino 28%
| Model | Market | Book odds | Edge |
|---|
| Atletico Paranaense | 44.2% | 46.5% | 2.04 | -2.3pp |
| Draw | 27.5% | 28.5% | 3.25 | -1.0pp |
| RB Bragantino | 28.3% | 25.0% | 3.68 | +3.3pp |
| Over 1.5 | 70.0% | 38.1% | 2.45 | +31.9pp |
| Under 1.5 | 30.0% | 61.9% | 1.51 | -31.9pp |
| Over 2.5 | 44.5% | 15.8% | 5.91 | +28.7pp |
| Under 2.5 | 55.5% | 84.2% | 1.11 | -28.7pp |
| Over 3.5 | 24.1% | 11.5% | 8.70 | +12.6pp |
| Under 3.5 | 75.9% | 88.5% | 1.13 | -12.6pp |
| BTTS Yes | 49.6% | 32.0% | 3.05 | +17.6pp |
| BTTS No | 50.4% | 68.0% | 1.43 | -17.6pp |
Atletico Para… or draw
72%
Atletico Para… clean sheet
35%
RB Bragantino clean sheet
25%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 13% · 1–0 12% · 0–0 9% · 2–1 9%
Correlated combinations
- RB Bragantino win + RB Bragantino clean sheet — 15% (fair 6.49); naive multiplication would say 7%, off by +128%
- Atletico Para… win + Atletico Para… clean sheet — 26% (fair 3.85); naive multiplication would say 16%, off by +66%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 36% (fair 2.76); naive multiplication would say 22%, off by +65%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 42% (fair 2.35); naive multiplication would say 28%, off by +51%
Best value in ITCUP
| Match | Selection | Model | Fair | Book | EV | Stake |
|---|
| UdinesevPadova | Udinese H thin data | 62.4% | 1.60 | — | — | — |
| TorinovCarrarese | Torino H thin data | 58.9% | 1.70 | — | — | — |
| VeneziavModena | Venezia H thin data | 45.6% | 2.19 | — | — | — |
| CatanzarovSudtirol | Catanzaro H thin data | 42.1% | 2.37 | — | — | — |
| CatanzarovSudtirol | Sudtirol A thin data | 30.4% | 3.28 | — | — | — |
| VeneziavModena | Draw thin data | 27.6% | 3.62 | — | — | — |
Stake is blank unless a selection clears every gate: positive expected value, at least 5 percentage points of edge over the de-vigged line, and not more than 25 (a disagreement that large is usually the model missing something, not an opportunity). Most rows will be blank most days. Selections marked longshot are below 10% — their EV figure divides by a very small number and should not be trusted. thin data means one side has too few matches in the model's history for its rating to mean anything; the huge edge shown is the model's ignorance, not the market's mistake.
Catanzaro HOME
v Sudtirol AWAY
16:00 · ITCUP · expected goals
Catanzaro 1.40 – 1.24 Sudtirol
Thin data: Catanzaro 12 matches, Sudtirol 9 in this model's history. Ratings that sparse sit near the league average, which flatters the weaker side badly when the two come from different divisions. Shown for completeness, not as a forecast.
Catanzaro 42%
· draw 27%
· Sudtirol 30%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 13% · 1–0 9% · 2–1 9% · 0–1 8%
Correlated combinations
- Sudtirol win + Sudtirol clean sheet — 17% (fair 5.88); naive multiplication would say 8%, off by +110%
- Catanzaro win + Catanzaro clean sheet — 21% (fair 4.71); naive multiplication would say 12%, off by +83%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 38% (fair 2.64); naive multiplication would say 23%, off by +63%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 41% (fair 2.43); naive multiplication would say 27%, off by +55%
Udinese HOME
v Padova AWAY
16:30 · ITCUP · expected goals
Udinese 1.69 – 0.94 Padova
Thin data: Udinese 284 matches, Padova 7 in this model's history. Ratings that sparse sit near the league average, which flatters the weaker side badly when the two come from different divisions. Shown for completeness, not as a forecast.
Udinese 62%
· draw 22%
· Padova 16%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 12% · 1–0 12% · 2–0 10% · 2–1 10%
Correlated combinations
- Padova win + Padova clean sheet — 11% (fair 9.25); naive multiplication would say 4%, off by +185%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 38% (fair 2.61); naive multiplication would say 25%, off by +56%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 39% (fair 2.56); naive multiplication would say 25%, off by +54%
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 20% (fair 5.10); naive multiplication would say 13%, off by +53%
Venezia HOME
v Modena AWAY
18:45 · ITCUP · expected goals
Venezia 1.29 – 1.17 Modena
Thin data: Venezia 89 matches, Modena 7 in this model's history. Ratings that sparse sit near the league average, which flatters the weaker side badly when the two come from different divisions. Shown for completeness, not as a forecast.
Venezia 46%
· draw 28%
· Modena 27%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 13% · 1–0 10% · 0–1 9% · 0–0 9%
Correlated combinations
- Modena win + Modena clean sheet — 18% (fair 5.41); naive multiplication would say 9%, off by +103%
- Venezia win + Venezia clean sheet — 22% (fair 4.56); naive multiplication would say 12%, off by +83%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 37% (fair 2.70); naive multiplication would say 22%, off by +65%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 42% (fair 2.38); naive multiplication would say 28%, off by +53%
Torino HOME
v Carrarese AWAY
19:15 · ITCUP · expected goals
Torino 1.59 – 1.02 Carrarese
Thin data: Torino 291 matches, Carrarese 7 in this model's history. Ratings that sparse sit near the league average, which flatters the weaker side badly when the two come from different divisions. Shown for completeness, not as a forecast.
Torino 59%
· draw 24%
· Carrarese 17%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 12% · 1–0 11% · 2–1 9% · 2–0 9%
Correlated combinations
- Carrarese win + Carrarese clean sheet — 13% (fair 7.95); naive multiplication would say 5%, off by +158%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 39% (fair 2.56); naive multiplication would say 25%, off by +57%
- Torino win + Torino clean sheet — 28% (fair 3.56); naive multiplication would say 18%, off by +56%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 39% (fair 2.55); naive multiplication would say 25%, off by +56%
Best value in J1
| Match | Selection | Model | Fair | Book | EV | Stake |
|---|
| Vissel KobevFC Tokyo | Vissel Kobe H | 54.0% | 1.85 | 2.30 | +24.0% | 3.00% |
| UrawavSanfrecce Hiroshima | Urawa H | 30.6% | 3.27 | 3.84 | +17.4% | 1.53% |
| Shimizu S-pulsevYokohama F. Marinos | Yokohama F. Marinos A | 40.6% | 2.46 | 2.87 | +16.3% | 2.19% |
| KashimavNagoya Grampus | Kashima H | 58.4% | 1.71 | 1.72 | +0.6% | — |
| Avispa FukuokavCerezo Osaka | Draw | 30.5% | 3.28 | 3.27 | -0.5% | — |
| KashimavNagoya Grampus | Draw | 26.2% | 3.82 | 3.61 | -5.5% | — |
Stake is blank unless a selection clears every gate: positive expected value, at least 5 percentage points of edge over the de-vigged line, and not more than 25 (a disagreement that large is usually the model missing something, not an opportunity). Most rows will be blank most days. Selections marked longshot are below 10% — their EV figure divides by a very small number and should not be trusted. thin data means one side has too few matches in the model's history for its rating to mean anything; the huge edge shown is the model's ignorance, not the market's mistake.
Goal markets in J1
| Match | Market | Pick | Model | Fair | Book | EV | Stake |
|---|
| Shimizu S-pulsevYokohama F. Marinos | BTTS | Yes— | 55.3% | 1.81 | 4.47 | +147.2% | — |
| Shimizu S-pulsevYokohama F. Marinos | Totals | Over2.5 | 53.4% | 1.87 | 3.82 | +103.9% | — |
| Shimizu S-pulsevYokohama F. Marinos | Totals | Over3.5 | 32.0% | 3.13 | 6.28 | +101.0% | 3.00% |
| KashimavNagoya Grampus | Totals | Over3.5 | 24.8% | 4.03 | 7.99 | +98.4% | 3.00% |
| Shimizu S-pulsevYokohama F. Marinos | Totals | Over1.5 | 76.8% | 1.30 | 2.51 | +92.6% | — |
| Vissel KobevFC Tokyo | Totals | Over3.5 | 22.6% | 4.42 | 8.27 | +87.0% | 2.99% |
One row per market per match: the side the model prefers. The two sides of a two-way line are near mirror images, so showing both would double the table without adding anything. Edges are measured against each pair de-vigged on its own, not against the match-winner margin — books load goals markets more heavily, and borrowing the 1X2 overround here would flatter every row.
Kashima HOME
v Nagoya Grampus AWAY
09:00 · J1 · expected goals
Kashima 1.67 – 0.81 Nagoya Grampus
Kashima 58%
· draw 26%
· Nagoya Grampus 15%
| Model | Market | Book odds | Edge |
|---|
| Kashima | 58.4% | 55.3% | 1.72 | +3.1pp |
| Draw | 26.2% | 25.5% | 3.61 | +0.7pp |
| Nagoya Grampus | 15.4% | 19.2% | 4.69 | -3.9pp |
| Over 1.5 | 70.6% | 38.3% | 2.46 | +32.4pp |
| Under 1.5 | 29.4% | 61.7% | 1.53 | -32.4pp |
| Over 2.5 | 45.4% | 25.0% | 4.09 | +20.5pp |
| Under 2.5 | 54.6% | 75.0% | 1.36 | -20.5pp |
| Over 3.5 | 24.8% | 12.6% | 7.99 | +12.2pp |
| Under 3.5 | 75.2% | 87.4% | 1.15 | -12.2pp |
| BTTS Yes | 46.9% | 32.2% | 3.00 | +14.7pp |
| BTTS No | 53.1% | 67.8% | 1.43 | -14.7pp |
draw or Nagoya Grampus
42%
Nagoya Grampus clean sheet
19%
Likeliest scores: 1–0 13% · 1–1 12% · 2–0 12% · 2–1 9%
Correlated combinations
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 34% (fair 2.95); naive multiplication would say 21%, off by +64%
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 21% (fair 4.85); naive multiplication would say 14%, off by +50%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 43% (fair 2.33); naive multiplication would say 30%, off by +44%
- Kashima win + Kashima clean sheet — 36% (fair 2.81); naive multiplication would say 25%, off by +40%
Shimizu S-pulse HOME
v Yokohama F. Marinos AWAY
09:30 · J1 · expected goals
Shimizu S-pulse 1.33 – 1.49 Yokohama F. Marinos
Shimizu S-pulse 32%
· draw 28%
· Yokohama F. Marinos 41%
| Model | Market | Book odds | Edge |
|---|
| Shimizu S-pulse | 31.8% | 39.2% | 2.41 | -7.5pp |
| Draw | 27.6% | 28.1% | 3.31 | -0.5pp |
| Yokohama F. Marinos | 40.6% | 32.7% | 2.87 | +7.9pp |
| Over 1.5 | 76.8% | 37.7% | 2.51 | +39.1pp |
| Under 1.5 | 23.2% | 62.3% | 1.52 | -39.1pp |
| Over 2.5 | 53.4% | 27.3% | 3.82 | +26.1pp |
| Under 2.5 | 46.6% | 72.7% | 1.43 | -26.1pp |
| Over 3.5 | 32.0% | 16.0% | 6.28 | +16.0pp |
| Under 3.5 | 68.0% | 84.0% | 1.20 | -16.0pp |
| BTTS Yes | 55.3% | 23.7% | 4.47 | +31.6pp |
| BTTS No | 44.7% | 76.3% | 1.39 | -31.6pp |
Shimizu S-pul… or draw
59%
draw or Yokohama F. M…
68%
Shimizu S-pul… clean sheet
23%
Yokohama F. M… clean sheet
26%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 12% · 1–2 9% · 0–1 8% · 2–1 8%
Correlated combinations
- Shimizu S-pul… win + Shimizu S-pul… clean sheet — 16% (fair 6.21); naive multiplication would say 8%, off by +114%
- Yokohama F. M… win + Yokohama F. M… clean sheet — 20% (fair 5.01); naive multiplication would say 11%, off by +87%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 34% (fair 2.93); naive multiplication would say 20%, off by +73%
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 19% (fair 5.33); naive multiplication would say 12%, off by +55%
Kawasaki Frontale HOME
v Kyoto Sanga AWAY
10:00 · J1 · expected goals
Kawasaki Frontale 1.84 – 1.42 Kyoto Sanga
Kawasaki Frontale 45%
· draw 22%
· Kyoto Sanga 32%
Kawasaki Fron… or draw
68%
Kawasaki Fron… clean sheet
24%
Kyoto Sanga clean sheet
16%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 10% · 2–1 9% · 1–2 7% · 1–0 7%
Correlated combinations
- Kyoto Sanga win + Kyoto Sanga clean sheet — 12% (fair 8.58); naive multiplication would say 5%, off by +149%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 26% (fair 3.79); naive multiplication would say 13%, off by +99%
- Kawasaki Fron… win + Kawasaki Fron… clean sheet — 20% (fair 5.01); naive multiplication would say 11%, off by +75%
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 15% (fair 6.77); naive multiplication would say 9%, off by +70%
Urawa HOME
v Sanfrecce Hiroshima AWAY
10:00 · J1 · expected goals
Urawa 1.05 – 1.07 Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Urawa 31%
· draw 27%
· Sanfrecce Hiroshima 43%
| Model | Market | Book odds | Edge |
|---|
| Urawa | 30.6% | 23.8% | 3.84 | +6.7pp |
| Draw | 26.8% | 26.6% | 3.47 | +0.2pp |
| Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 42.7% | 49.5% | 1.92 | -6.9pp |
| Over 1.5 | 62.5% | 40.0% | 2.36 | +22.6pp |
| Under 1.5 | 37.5% | 60.0% | 1.57 | -22.6pp |
| Over 2.5 | 36.1% | 26.5% | 3.86 | +9.6pp |
| Under 2.5 | 63.9% | 73.5% | 1.40 | -9.6pp |
| Over 3.5 | 17.4% | 13.7% | 7.39 | +3.7pp |
| Under 3.5 | 82.6% | 86.3% | 1.17 | -3.7pp |
| BTTS Yes | 45.2% | 35.0% | 2.79 | +10.2pp |
| BTTS No | 54.8% | 65.0% | 1.50 | -10.2pp |
draw or Sanfrecce Hir…
69%
Sanfrecce Hir… clean sheet
35%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 14% · 0–0 13% · 0–1 12% · 1–0 12%
Correlated combinations
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 29% (fair 3.43); naive multiplication would say 15%, off by +90%
- Urawa win + Urawa clean sheet — 22% (fair 4.60); naive multiplication would say 12%, off by +86%
- Sanfrecce Hir… win + Sanfrecce Hir… clean sheet — 22% (fair 4.45); naive multiplication would say 12%, off by +83%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 50% (fair 1.98); naive multiplication would say 37%, off by +38%
Vissel Kobe HOME
v FC Tokyo AWAY
10:00 · J1 · expected goals
Vissel Kobe 1.53 – 0.85 FC Tokyo
Vissel Kobe 54%
· draw 27%
· FC Tokyo 19%
| Model | Market | Book odds | Edge |
|---|
| Vissel Kobe | 54.0% | 41.1% | 2.30 | +12.9pp |
| Draw | 27.0% | 29.2% | 3.18 | -2.2pp |
| FC Tokyo | 19.0% | 29.7% | 3.13 | -10.7pp |
| Over 1.5 | 68.5% | 36.4% | 2.59 | +32.0pp |
| Under 1.5 | 31.5% | 63.6% | 1.48 | -32.0pp |
| Over 2.5 | 42.8% | 23.2% | 4.35 | +19.5pp |
| Under 2.5 | 57.2% | 76.8% | 1.32 | -19.5pp |
| Over 3.5 | 22.6% | 12.0% | 8.27 | +10.6pp |
| Under 3.5 | 77.4% | 88.0% | 1.13 | -10.6pp |
| BTTS Yes | 46.8% | 33.2% | 2.94 | +13.5pp |
| BTTS No | 53.2% | 66.8% | 1.46 | -13.5pp |
Vissel Kobe clean sheet
43%
Likeliest scores: 1–0 14% · 1–1 13% · 2–0 11% · 0–0 10%
Correlated combinations
- FC Tokyo win + FC Tokyo clean sheet — 12% (fair 8.37); naive multiplication would say 4%, off by +169%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 33% (fair 3.05); naive multiplication would say 19%, off by +70%
- Vissel Kobe win + Vissel Kobe clean sheet — 33% (fair 3.04); naive multiplication would say 22%, off by +46%
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 22% (fair 4.48); naive multiplication would say 15%, off by +44%
Avispa Fukuoka HOME
v Cerezo Osaka AWAY
10:00 · J1 · expected goals
Avispa Fukuoka 1.15 – 1.02 Cerezo Osaka
Avispa Fukuoka 34%
· draw 30%
· Cerezo Osaka 35%
| Model | Market | Book odds | Edge |
|---|
| Avispa Fukuoka | 34.2% | 35.4% | 2.66 | -1.2pp |
| Draw | 30.5% | 28.6% | 3.27 | +1.9pp |
| Cerezo Osaka | 35.3% | 36.1% | 2.62 | -0.7pp |
| Over 1.5 | 63.6% | 36.8% | 2.56 | +26.9pp |
| Under 1.5 | 36.4% | 63.2% | 1.49 | -26.9pp |
| Over 2.5 | 37.3% | 26.3% | 3.94 | +11.0pp |
| Under 2.5 | 62.7% | 73.7% | 1.40 | -11.0pp |
| Over 3.5 | 18.3% | 14.9% | 6.77 | +3.4pp |
| Under 3.5 | 81.7% | 85.1% | 1.18 | -3.4pp |
| BTTS Yes | 45.8% | 32.8% | 2.93 | +13.1pp |
| BTTS No | 54.2% | 67.2% | 1.43 | -13.1pp |
Avispa Fukuoka or draw
65%
Avispa Fukuoka clean sheet
36%
Cerezo Osaka clean sheet
32%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 14% · 1–0 13% · 0–0 12% · 0–1 11%
Correlated combinations
- Cerezo Osaka win + Cerezo Osaka clean sheet — 20% (fair 5.07); naive multiplication would say 10%, off by +97%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 30% (fair 3.32); naive multiplication would say 16%, off by +86%
- Avispa Fukuoka win + Avispa Fukuoka clean sheet — 24% (fair 4.14); naive multiplication would say 14%, off by +75%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 49% (fair 2.03); naive multiplication would say 35%, off by +39%
Best value in MLS
| Match | Selection | Model | Fair | Book | EV | Stake |
|---|
| Atlanta United FCvNew York Red Bulls | New York Red Bulls A | 33.3% | 3.00 | 3.67 | +22.2% | 2.08% |
| Atlanta United FCvNew York Red Bulls | Draw | 30.2% | 3.31 | 4.03 | +21.8% | 1.80% |
| CharlottevColumbus Crew | Columbus Crew A | 37.6% | 2.66 | 2.91 | +9.7% | 1.27% |
| CF MontrealvDC United | CF Montreal H | 48.9% | 2.04 | 2.21 | +8.1% | 1.67% |
| Orlando City SCvFC Cincinnati | Orlando City SC H | 47.9% | 2.09 | 2.21 | +5.8% | 1.20% |
| Toronto FCvNew England Revolution | Draw | 27.2% | 3.68 | 3.58 | -2.7% | — |
Stake is blank unless a selection clears every gate: positive expected value, at least 5 percentage points of edge over the de-vigged line, and not more than 25 (a disagreement that large is usually the model missing something, not an opportunity). Most rows will be blank most days. Selections marked longshot are below 10% — their EV figure divides by a very small number and should not be trusted. thin data means one side has too few matches in the model's history for its rating to mean anything; the huge edge shown is the model's ignorance, not the market's mistake.
Goal markets in MLS
| Match | Market | Pick | Model | Fair | Book | EV | Stake |
|---|
| CF MontrealvDC United | Totals | Over3.5 | 34.4% | 2.90 | 7.08 | +143.7% | 3.00% |
| CF MontrealvDC United | Totals | Over2.5 | 55.9% | 1.79 | 3.90 | +117.8% | — |
| CharlottevColumbus Crew | Totals | Over2.5 | 53.8% | 1.86 | 3.89 | +109.6% | — |
| CharlottevColumbus Crew | Totals | Over3.5 | 32.4% | 3.09 | 6.41 | +107.5% | 3.00% |
| Toronto FCvNew England Revolution | Totals | Over2.5 | 48.7% | 2.05 | 4.11 | +100.4% | 3.00% |
| Atlanta United FCvNew York Red Bulls | Totals | Over3.5 | 29.9% | 3.35 | 6.69 | +99.9% | 3.00% |
One row per market per match: the side the model prefers. The two sides of a two-way line are near mirror images, so showing both would double the table without adding anything. Edges are measured against each pair de-vigged on its own, not against the match-winner margin — books load goals markets more heavily, and borrowing the 1X2 overround here would flatter every row.
Orlando City SC HOME
v FC Cincinnati AWAY
23:30 · MLS · expected goals
Orlando City SC 1.66 – 1.28 FC Cincinnati
Orlando City SC 48%
· draw 21%
· FC Cincinnati 31%
| Model | Market | Book odds | Edge |
|---|
| Orlando City SC | 47.9% | 42.7% | 2.21 | +5.2pp |
| Draw | 21.2% | 22.3% | 4.08 | -1.2pp |
| FC Cincinnati | 30.9% | 34.9% | 2.68 | -4.0pp |
| Over 1.5 | 78.8% | 60.2% | 1.56 | +18.5pp |
| Under 1.5 | 21.2% | 39.8% | 2.36 | -18.5pp |
| Over 2.5 | 56.1% | 39.1% | 2.58 | +17.1pp |
| Under 2.5 | 43.9% | 60.9% | 1.65 | -17.1pp |
| Over 3.5 | 34.6% | 19.9% | 5.28 | +14.7pp |
| Under 3.5 | 65.4% | 80.1% | 1.31 | -14.7pp |
| BTTS Yes | 56.4% | 50.6% | 2.22 | +5.8pp |
| BTTS No | 43.6% | 49.4% | 2.27 | -5.8pp |
Orlando City … or draw
69%
Orlando City … clean sheet
28%
FC Cincinnati clean sheet
19%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 12% · 2–1 9% · 1–0 8% · 2–0 7%
Correlated combinations
- FC Cincinnati win + FC Cincinnati clean sheet — 13% (fair 7.55); naive multiplication would say 6%, off by +140%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 32% (fair 3.14); naive multiplication would say 18%, off by +79%
- Orlando City … win + Orlando City … clean sheet — 22% (fair 4.55); naive multiplication would say 13%, off by +73%
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 17% (fair 5.74); naive multiplication would say 11%, off by +60%
Atlanta United FC HOME
v New York Red Bulls AWAY
23:30 · MLS · expected goals
Atlanta United FC 1.38 – 1.34 New York Red Bulls
Atlanta United FC 36%
· draw 30%
· New York Red Bulls 33%
| Model | Market | Book odds | Edge |
|---|
| Atlanta United FC | 36.5% | 52.5% | 1.81 | -16.0pp |
| Draw | 30.2% | 22.6% | 4.03 | +7.6pp |
| New York Red Bulls | 33.3% | 25.0% | 3.67 | +8.3pp |
| Over 1.5 | 75.2% | 53.3% | 1.76 | +21.8pp |
| Under 1.5 | 24.8% | 46.7% | 2.02 | -21.8pp |
| Over 2.5 | 51.2% | 31.9% | 3.15 | +19.3pp |
| Under 2.5 | 48.8% | 68.1% | 1.47 | -19.3pp |
| Over 3.5 | 29.9% | 15.9% | 6.69 | +13.9pp |
| Under 3.5 | 70.1% | 84.1% | 1.27 | -13.9pp |
| BTTS Yes | 54.1% | 41.8% | 2.63 | +12.3pp |
| BTTS No | 45.9% | 58.2% | 1.89 | -12.3pp |
Atlanta Unite… or draw
67%
draw or New York Red …
64%
Atlanta Unite… clean sheet
26%
New York Red … clean sheet
25%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 13% · 1–0 9% · 2–1 8% · 0–1 8%
Correlated combinations
- New York Red … win + New York Red … clean sheet — 18% (fair 5.52); naive multiplication would say 9%, off by +101%
- Atlanta Unite… win + Atlanta Unite… clean sheet — 19% (fair 5.27); naive multiplication would say 10%, off by +95%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 36% (fair 2.77); naive multiplication would say 22%, off by +68%
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 20% (fair 5.06); naive multiplication would say 13%, off by +52%
Charlotte HOME
v Columbus Crew AWAY
23:30 · MLS · expected goals
Charlotte 1.45 – 1.38 Columbus Crew
Charlotte 37%
· draw 26%
· Columbus Crew 38%
| Model | Market | Book odds | Edge |
|---|
| Charlotte | 36.6% | 42.6% | 2.21 | -6.0pp |
| Draw | 25.8% | 25.5% | 3.61 | +0.3pp |
| Columbus Crew | 37.6% | 31.9% | 2.91 | +5.7pp |
| Over 1.5 | 77.1% | 46.7% | 2.01 | +30.4pp |
| Under 1.5 | 22.9% | 53.3% | 1.76 | -30.4pp |
| Over 2.5 | 53.8% | 25.3% | 3.89 | +28.6pp |
| Under 2.5 | 46.2% | 74.7% | 1.32 | -28.6pp |
| Over 3.5 | 32.4% | 16.3% | 6.41 | +16.1pp |
| Under 3.5 | 67.6% | 83.7% | 1.25 | -16.1pp |
| BTTS Yes | 55.6% | 34.6% | 3.22 | +21.0pp |
| BTTS No | 44.4% | 65.4% | 1.71 | -21.0pp |
Columbus Crew clean sheet
23%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 12% · 2–1 9% · 1–2 8% · 1–0 8%
Correlated combinations
- Columbus Crew win + Columbus Crew clean sheet — 17% (fair 5.88); naive multiplication would say 8%, off by +106%
- Charlotte win + Charlotte clean sheet — 19% (fair 5.35); naive multiplication would say 10%, off by +94%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 34% (fair 2.96); naive multiplication would say 19%, off by +74%
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 19% (fair 5.37); naive multiplication would say 12%, off by +55%
Toronto FC HOME
v New England Revolution AWAY
23:30 · MLS · expected goals
Toronto FC 1.41 – 1.21 New England Revolution
Toronto FC 43%
· draw 27%
· New England Revolution 30%
| Model | Market | Book odds | Edge |
|---|
| Toronto FC | 42.7% | 43.6% | 2.16 | -1.0pp |
| Draw | 27.2% | 25.7% | 3.58 | +1.5pp |
| New England Revolution | 30.1% | 30.7% | 3.03 | -0.5pp |
| Over 1.5 | 73.3% | 46.4% | 2.02 | +26.9pp |
| Under 1.5 | 26.7% | 53.6% | 1.75 | -26.9pp |
| Over 2.5 | 48.7% | 24.0% | 4.11 | +24.7pp |
| Under 2.5 | 51.3% | 76.0% | 1.30 | -24.7pp |
| Over 3.5 | 27.7% | 16.0% | 6.55 | +11.7pp |
| Under 3.5 | 72.3% | 84.0% | 1.24 | -11.7pp |
| BTTS Yes | 52.5% | 34.9% | 3.15 | +17.7pp |
| BTTS No | 47.5% | 65.1% | 1.69 | -17.7pp |
draw or New England R…
57%
Toronto FC clean sheet
30%
New England R… clean sheet
24%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 13% · 1–0 10% · 2–1 9% · 0–1 8%
Correlated combinations
- New England R… win + New England R… clean sheet — 17% (fair 6.02); naive multiplication would say 8%, off by +114%
- Toronto FC win + Toronto FC clean sheet — 22% (fair 4.55); naive multiplication would say 12%, off by +80%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 38% (fair 2.61); naive multiplication would say 24%, off by +61%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 41% (fair 2.46); naive multiplication would say 26%, off by +56%
CF Montreal HOME
v DC United AWAY
23:30 · MLS · expected goals
CF Montreal 1.73 – 1.20 DC United
CF Montreal 49%
· draw 26%
· DC United 25%
| Model | Market | Book odds | Edge |
|---|
| CF Montreal | 48.9% | 42.8% | 2.21 | +6.1pp |
| Draw | 26.1% | 25.9% | 3.56 | +0.2pp |
| DC United | 25.0% | 31.2% | 2.99 | -6.2pp |
| Over 1.5 | 78.6% | 46.4% | 2.02 | +32.2pp |
| Under 1.5 | 21.4% | 53.6% | 1.75 | -32.2pp |
| Over 2.5 | 55.9% | 25.1% | 3.90 | +30.8pp |
| Under 2.5 | 44.1% | 74.9% | 1.31 | -30.8pp |
| Over 3.5 | 34.4% | 14.6% | 7.08 | +19.8pp |
| Under 3.5 | 65.6% | 85.4% | 1.21 | -19.8pp |
| BTTS Yes | 55.7% | 30.9% | 3.54 | +24.8pp |
| BTTS No | 44.3% | 69.1% | 1.58 | -24.8pp |
CF Montreal clean sheet
30%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 12% · 2–1 10% · 1–0 9% · 2–0 8%
Correlated combinations
- DC United win + DC United clean sheet — 12% (fair 8.37); naive multiplication would say 5%, off by +158%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 32% (fair 3.10); naive multiplication would say 18%, off by +76%
- CF Montreal win + CF Montreal clean sheet — 24% (fair 4.13); naive multiplication would say 15%, off by +64%
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 17% (fair 5.77); naive multiplication would say 11%, off by +61%
Best value in N1
| Match | Selection | Model | Fair | Book | EV | Stake |
|---|
| ExcelsiorvPSV Eindhoven | PSV Eindhoven A | 74.4% | 1.34 | 1.64 | +21.7% | 3.00% |
| UtrechtvAZ Alkmaar | Utrecht H | 40.7% | 2.46 | 2.35 | -4.4% | — |
| UtrechtvAZ Alkmaar | Draw | 25.7% | 3.89 | 3.67 | -5.8% | — |
| UtrechtvAZ Alkmaar | AZ Alkmaar A | 33.6% | 2.97 | 2.70 | -9.3% | — |
| ExcelsiorvPSV Eindhoven | Draw | 13.6% | 7.34 | 4.22 | -42.5% | — |
| ExcelsiorvPSV Eindhoven | Excelsior H | 11.9% | 8.37 | 4.70 | -43.9% | — |
Stake is blank unless a selection clears every gate: positive expected value, at least 5 percentage points of edge over the de-vigged line, and not more than 25 (a disagreement that large is usually the model missing something, not an opportunity). Most rows will be blank most days. Selections marked longshot are below 10% — their EV figure divides by a very small number and should not be trusted. thin data means one side has too few matches in the model's history for its rating to mean anything; the huge edge shown is the model's ignorance, not the market's mistake.
Goal markets in N1
| Match | Market | Pick | Model | Fair | Book | EV | Stake |
|---|
| ExcelsiorvPSV Eindhoven | Totals | Over3.5 | 57.8% | 1.73 | 4.06 | +134.6% | — |
| UtrechtvAZ Alkmaar | Totals | Over2.5 | 54.0% | 1.85 | 4.05 | +118.6% | — |
| UtrechtvAZ Alkmaar | BTTS | Yes— | 55.6% | 1.80 | 3.84 | +113.5% | — |
| UtrechtvAZ Alkmaar | Totals | Over3.5 | 32.5% | 3.07 | 6.39 | +108.1% | 3.00% |
| ExcelsiorvPSV Eindhoven | BTTS | Yes— | 63.0% | 1.59 | 3.28 | +106.6% | — |
| ExcelsiorvPSV Eindhoven | Totals | Over2.5 | 76.3% | 1.31 | 2.66 | +103.2% | — |
One row per market per match: the side the model prefers. The two sides of a two-way line are near mirror images, so showing both would double the table without adding anything. Edges are measured against each pair de-vigged on its own, not against the match-winner margin — books load goals markets more heavily, and borrowing the 1X2 overround here would flatter every row.
Willem II HOME
v NEC Nijmegen AWAY
14:30 · N1 · expected goals
Willem II 1.24 – 1.82 NEC Nijmegen
Willem II 20%
· draw 25%
· NEC Nijmegen 56%
NEC Nijmegen clean sheet
29%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 11% · 1–2 10% · 0–1 8% · 0–2 8%
Correlated combinations
- Willem II win + Willem II clean sheet — 11% (fair 9.06); naive multiplication would say 4%, off by +167%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 30% (fair 3.35); naive multiplication would say 16%, off by +83%
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 16% (fair 6.21); naive multiplication would say 10%, off by +66%
- NEC Nijmegen win + NEC Nijmegen clean sheet — 24% (fair 4.21); naive multiplication would say 15%, off by +63%
Utrecht HOME
v AZ Alkmaar AWAY
16:45 · N1 · expected goals
Utrecht 1.51 – 1.33 AZ Alkmaar
Utrecht 41%
· draw 26%
· AZ Alkmaar 34%
| Model | Market | Book odds | Edge |
|---|
| Utrecht | 40.7% | 40.1% | 2.35 | +0.5pp |
| Draw | 25.7% | 25.1% | 3.67 | +0.6pp |
| AZ Alkmaar | 33.6% | 34.7% | 2.70 | -1.1pp |
| Over 1.5 | 77.2% | 56.5% | 1.80 | +20.8pp |
| Under 1.5 | 22.8% | 43.5% | 2.34 | -20.8pp |
| Over 2.5 | 54.0% | 22.9% | 4.05 | +31.1pp |
| Under 2.5 | 46.0% | 77.1% | 1.20 | -31.1pp |
| Over 3.5 | 32.5% | 16.9% | 6.39 | +15.7pp |
| Under 3.5 | 67.5% | 83.1% | 1.30 | -15.7pp |
| BTTS Yes | 55.6% | 28.8% | 3.84 | +26.8pp |
| BTTS No | 44.4% | 71.2% | 1.55 | -26.8pp |
AZ Alkmaar clean sheet
22%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 12% · 2–1 9% · 1–0 8% · 1–2 8%
Correlated combinations
- AZ Alkmaar win + AZ Alkmaar clean sheet — 16% (fair 6.38); naive multiplication would say 7%, off by +117%
- Utrecht win + Utrecht clean sheet — 20% (fair 4.97); naive multiplication would say 11%, off by +85%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 34% (fair 2.97); naive multiplication would say 19%, off by +74%
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 19% (fair 5.40); naive multiplication would say 12%, off by +56%
Excelsior HOME
v PSV Eindhoven AWAY
18:00 · N1 · expected goals
Excelsior 1.28 – 2.79 PSV Eindhoven
Excelsior 12%
· draw 14%
· PSV Eindhoven 74%
| Model | Market | Book odds | Edge |
|---|
| Excelsior | 11.9% | 19.4% | 4.70 | -7.5pp |
| Draw | 13.6% | 21.8% | 4.22 | -8.2pp |
| PSV Eindhoven | 74.4% | 58.7% | 1.64 | +15.7pp |
| Over 1.5 | 90.8% | 64.8% | 1.59 | +26.0pp |
| Under 1.5 | 9.2% | 35.2% | 2.94 | -26.0pp |
| Over 2.5 | 76.3% | 39.1% | 2.66 | +37.2pp |
| Under 2.5 | 23.7% | 60.9% | 1.71 | -37.2pp |
| Over 3.5 | 57.8% | 28.3% | 4.06 | +29.5pp |
| Under 3.5 | 42.2% | 71.7% | 1.60 | -29.5pp |
| BTTS Yes | 63.0% | 34.5% | 3.28 | +28.5pp |
| BTTS No | 37.0% | 65.5% | 1.73 | -28.5pp |
PSV Eindhoven clean sheet
28%
Likeliest scores: 1–2 8% · 1–3 8% · 0–2 7% · 1–1 6%
Correlated combinations
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 16% (fair 6.10); naive multiplication would say 7%, off by +126%
- PSV Eindhoven win + PSV Eindhoven clean sheet — 26% (fair 3.88); naive multiplication would say 19%, off by +35%
- Excelsior or draw + Under 3.5 — 16% (fair 6.20); naive multiplication would say 13%, off by +23%
- PSV Eindhoven win + BTTS No — 26% (fair 3.88); naive multiplication would say 22%, off by +18%
Fortuna Sittard HOME
v Cambuur AWAY
19:00 · N1 · expected goals
Fortuna Sittard 1.59 – 1.17 Cambuur
Fortuna Sittard 52%
· draw 25%
· Cambuur 23%
Fortuna Sitta… or draw
77%
Fortuna Sitta… clean sheet
31%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 12% · 1–0 10% · 2–1 9% · 2–0 8%
Correlated combinations
- Cambuur win + Cambuur clean sheet — 13% (fair 7.41); naive multiplication would say 6%, off by +142%
- Fortuna Sitta… win + Fortuna Sitta… clean sheet — 24% (fair 4.11); naive multiplication would say 15%, off by +67%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 36% (fair 2.80); naive multiplication would say 21%, off by +67%
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 19% (fair 5.23); naive multiplication would say 12%, off by +54%
Best value in NOR1
| Match | Selection | Model | Fair | Book | EV | Stake |
|---|
| KFUM OslovLillestrom | KFUM Oslo H | 55.8% | 1.79 | 2.76 | +53.9% | 3.00% |
| KFUM OslovLillestrom | Draw | 24.2% | 4.13 | 3.49 | -15.7% | — |
| KFUM OslovLillestrom | Lillestrom A | 20.0% | 4.99 | 2.39 | -52.1% | — |
Stake is blank unless a selection clears every gate: positive expected value, at least 5 percentage points of edge over the de-vigged line, and not more than 25 (a disagreement that large is usually the model missing something, not an opportunity). Most rows will be blank most days. Selections marked longshot are below 10% — their EV figure divides by a very small number and should not be trusted. thin data means one side has too few matches in the model's history for its rating to mean anything; the huge edge shown is the model's ignorance, not the market's mistake.
Goal markets in NOR1
| Match | Market | Pick | Model | Fair | Book | EV | Stake |
|---|
| KFUM OslovLillestrom | Totals | Over2.5 | 50.5% | 1.98 | 5.40 | +172.8% | — |
| KFUM OslovLillestrom | Totals | Over1.5 | 74.7% | 1.34 | 1.87 | +39.6% | — |
| KFUM OslovLillestrom | BTTS | No— | 48.0% | 2.08 | 2.25 | +8.0% | 1.60% |
| KFUM OslovLillestrom | Totals | Under3.5 | 70.7% | 1.41 | 1.41 | -0.3% | — |
One row per market per match: the side the model prefers. The two sides of a two-way line are near mirror images, so showing both would double the table without adding anything. Edges are measured against each pair de-vigged on its own, not against the match-winner margin — books load goals markets more heavily, and borrowing the 1X2 overround here would flatter every row.
KFUM Oslo HOME
v Lillestrom AWAY
14:00 · NOR1 · expected goals
KFUM Oslo 1.65 – 1.04 Lillestrom
KFUM Oslo 56%
· draw 24%
· Lillestrom 20%
| Model | Market | Book odds | Edge |
|---|
| KFUM Oslo | 55.8% | 34.0% | 2.76 | +21.8pp |
| Draw | 24.2% | 26.5% | 3.49 | -2.4pp |
| Lillestrom | 20.0% | 39.5% | 2.39 | -19.5pp |
| Over 1.5 | 74.7% | 49.0% | 1.87 | +25.6pp |
| Under 1.5 | 25.3% | 51.0% | 1.80 | -25.6pp |
| Over 2.5 | 50.5% | 17.1% | 5.40 | +33.5pp |
| Under 2.5 | 49.5% | 82.9% | 1.11 | -33.5pp |
| Over 3.5 | 29.3% | 35.2% | 2.60 | -5.9pp |
| Under 3.5 | 70.7% | 64.8% | 1.41 | +5.9pp |
| BTTS Yes | 52.0% | 59.2% | 1.55 | -7.2pp |
| BTTS No | 48.0% | 40.8% | 2.25 | +7.2pp |
Lillestrom clean sheet
19%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 12% · 1–0 11% · 2–1 10% · 2–0 9%
Correlated combinations
- Lillestrom win + Lillestrom clean sheet — 12% (fair 8.41); naive multiplication would say 4%, off by +166%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 37% (fair 2.68); naive multiplication would say 23%, off by +60%
- KFUM Oslo win + KFUM Oslo clean sheet — 28% (fair 3.57); naive multiplication would say 18%, off by +55%
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 19% (fair 5.17); naive multiplication would say 13%, off by +54%
Best value in P1
| Match | Selection | Model | Fair | Book | EV | Stake |
|---|
| Rio AvevFC Porto | FC Porto A | 64.7% | 1.55 | — | — | — |
| AlvercavEstrela | Alverca H | 50.4% | 1.99 | — | — | — |
| AlvercavEstrela | Draw | 27.2% | 3.68 | — | — | — |
| AlvercavEstrela | Estrela A | 22.4% | 4.46 | — | — | — |
| Rio AvevFC Porto | Draw | 19.8% | 5.06 | — | — | — |
| Rio AvevFC Porto | Rio Ave H | 15.6% | 6.42 | — | — | — |
Stake is blank unless a selection clears every gate: positive expected value, at least 5 percentage points of edge over the de-vigged line, and not more than 25 (a disagreement that large is usually the model missing something, not an opportunity). Most rows will be blank most days. Selections marked longshot are below 10% — their EV figure divides by a very small number and should not be trusted. thin data means one side has too few matches in the model's history for its rating to mean anything; the huge edge shown is the model's ignorance, not the market's mistake.
Alverca HOME
v Estrela AWAY
14:30 · P1 · expected goals
Alverca 1.41 – 1.00 Estrela
Alverca 50%
· draw 27%
· Estrela 22%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 13% · 1–0 12% · 0–0 10% · 2–1 9%
Correlated combinations
- Estrela win + Estrela clean sheet — 15% (fair 6.68); naive multiplication would say 6%, off by +132%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 35% (fair 2.85); naive multiplication would say 21%, off by +68%
- Alverca win + Alverca clean sheet — 27% (fair 3.68); naive multiplication would say 17%, off by +62%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 44% (fair 2.30); naive multiplication would say 29%, off by +48%
Rio Ave HOME
v FC Porto AWAY
19:30 · P1 · expected goals
Rio Ave 0.75 – 1.86 FC Porto
Rio Ave 16%
· draw 20%
· FC Porto 65%
Likeliest scores: 0–1 13% · 0–2 13% · 1–1 11% · 1–2 10%
Correlated combinations
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 18% (fair 5.42); naive multiplication would say 12%, off by +58%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 34% (fair 2.92); naive multiplication would say 22%, off by +58%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 41% (fair 2.44); naive multiplication would say 28%, off by +44%
- FC Porto win + FC Porto clean sheet — 40% (fair 2.52); naive multiplication would say 30%, off by +32%
Best value in PSL
| Match | Selection | Model | Fair | Book | EV | Stake |
|---|
| Kaizer ChiefsvMamelodi Sundowns | Mamelodi Sundowns A | 60.9% | 1.64 | — | — | — |
| AmazuluvSiwelele | Amazulu H | 44.1% | 2.27 | — | — | — |
| Sekhukhune UnitedvPolokwane City | Sekhukhune United H | 42.0% | 2.38 | — | — | — |
| Durban CityvRichards Bay | Durban City H | 41.2% | 2.42 | — | — | — |
| Sekhukhune UnitedvPolokwane City | Draw | 35.0% | 2.86 | — | — | — |
| Durban CityvRichards Bay | Draw | 33.7% | 2.96 | — | — | — |
Stake is blank unless a selection clears every gate: positive expected value, at least 5 percentage points of edge over the de-vigged line, and not more than 25 (a disagreement that large is usually the model missing something, not an opportunity). Most rows will be blank most days. Selections marked longshot are below 10% — their EV figure divides by a very small number and should not be trusted. thin data means one side has too few matches in the model's history for its rating to mean anything; the huge edge shown is the model's ignorance, not the market's mistake.
Amazulu HOME
v Siwelele AWAY
13:00 · PSL · expected goals
Amazulu 1.13 – 0.83 Siwelele
Amazulu 44%
· draw 31%
· Siwelele 25%
Likeliest scores: 1–0 15% · 0–0 15% · 1–1 14% · 0–1 11%
Correlated combinations
- Siwelele win + Siwelele clean sheet — 18% (fair 5.67); naive multiplication would say 8%, off by +109%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 25% (fair 3.97); naive multiplication would say 12%, off by +105%
- Amazulu win + Amazulu clean sheet — 29% (fair 3.46); naive multiplication would say 18%, off by +58%
- Amazulu win + Over 2.5 — 18% (fair 5.64); naive multiplication would say 13%, off by +34%
Kaizer Chiefs HOME
v Mamelodi Sundowns AWAY
13:00 · PSL · expected goals
Kaizer Chiefs 0.79 – 1.43 Mamelodi Sundowns
Kaizer Chiefs 16%
· draw 23%
· Mamelodi Sundowns 61%
draw or Mamelodi Sund…
84%
Kaizer Chiefs clean sheet
24%
Mamelodi Sund… clean sheet
46%
Likeliest scores: 0–1 15% · 1–1 13% · 0–0 11% · 0–2 11%
Correlated combinations
- Kaizer Chiefs win + Kaizer Chiefs clean sheet — 12% (fair 8.02); naive multiplication would say 5%, off by +161%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 29% (fair 3.42); naive multiplication would say 16%, off by +82%
- Mamelodi Sund… win + Mamelodi Sund… clean sheet — 34% (fair 2.93); naive multiplication would say 24%, off by +45%
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 24% (fair 4.14); naive multiplication would say 17%, off by +39%
Sekhukhune United HOME
v Polokwane City AWAY
15:30 · PSL · expected goals
Sekhukhune United 1.00 – 0.66 Polokwane City
Sekhukhune United 42%
· draw 35%
· Polokwane City 23%
Sekhukhune Un… or draw
77%
draw or Polokwane City
58%
Sekhukhune Un… clean sheet
52%
Polokwane City clean sheet
37%
Likeliest scores: 0–0 20% · 1–0 18% · 1–1 13% · 0–1 12%
Correlated combinations
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 18% (fair 5.56); naive multiplication would say 7%, off by +149%
- Polokwane City win + Polokwane City clean sheet — 17% (fair 5.81); naive multiplication would say 8%, off by +104%
- Sekhukhune Un… win + Sekhukhune Un… clean sheet — 32% (fair 3.11); naive multiplication would say 22%, off by +48%
- Sekhukhune Un… win + Over 2.5 — 14% (fair 7.07); naive multiplication would say 10%, off by +44%
Durban City HOME
v Richards Bay AWAY
18:00 · PSL · expected goals
Durban City 0.97 – 0.68 Richards Bay
Durban City 41%
· draw 34%
· Richards Bay 25%
Durban City clean sheet
51%
Richards Bay clean sheet
38%
Likeliest scores: 0–0 20% · 1–0 18% · 1–1 13% · 0–1 12%
Correlated combinations
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 18% (fair 5.59); naive multiplication would say 7%, off by +151%
- Richards Bay win + Richards Bay clean sheet — 18% (fair 5.53); naive multiplication would say 9%, off by +98%
- Durban City win + Durban City clean sheet — 31% (fair 3.22); naive multiplication would say 21%, off by +50%
- Durban City win + Over 2.5 — 13% (fair 7.43); naive multiplication would say 9%, off by +44%
Best value in SP1
| Match | Selection | Model | Fair | Book | EV | Stake |
|---|
| AlavesvGetafe | Getafe A | 34.9% | 2.86 | 3.53 | +23.4% | 2.31% |
| SevillavRayo Vallecano | Rayo Vallecano A | 36.9% | 2.71 | 3.28 | +20.9% | 2.29% |
| SevillavRayo Vallecano | Draw | 27.7% | 3.61 | 3.17 | -12.4% | — |
| AlavesvGetafe | Alaves H | 35.3% | 2.83 | 2.37 | -16.4% | — |
| AlavesvGetafe | Draw | 29.8% | 3.36 | 2.78 | -17.1% | — |
| SevillavRayo Vallecano | Sevilla H | 35.4% | 2.82 | 2.25 | -20.2% | — |
Stake is blank unless a selection clears every gate: positive expected value, at least 5 percentage points of edge over the de-vigged line, and not more than 25 (a disagreement that large is usually the model missing something, not an opportunity). Most rows will be blank most days. Selections marked longshot are below 10% — their EV figure divides by a very small number and should not be trusted. thin data means one side has too few matches in the model's history for its rating to mean anything; the huge edge shown is the model's ignorance, not the market's mistake.
Goal markets in SP1
| Match | Market | Pick | Model | Fair | Book | EV | Stake |
|---|
| AlavesvGetafe | Totals | Over2.5 | 28.8% | 3.47 | 8.53 | +145.8% | 3.00% |
| SevillavRayo Vallecano | Totals | Over2.5 | 38.7% | 2.58 | 6.05 | +134.6% | 3.00% |
| SevillavRayo Vallecano | Totals | Over3.5 | 19.4% | 5.15 | 9.52 | +84.9% | 2.49% |
| AlavesvGetafe | Totals | Over3.5 | 12.4% | 8.05 | 14.18 | +76.1% | 1.44% |
| SevillavRayo Vallecano | Totals | Over1.5 | 65.0% | 1.54 | 2.67 | +73.8% | — |
| AlavesvGetafe | Totals | Over1.5 | 55.2% | 1.81 | 3.12 | +72.1% | 3.00% |
One row per market per match: the side the model prefers. The two sides of a two-way line are near mirror images, so showing both would double the table without adding anything. Edges are measured against each pair de-vigged on its own, not against the match-winner margin — books load goals markets more heavily, and borrowing the 1X2 overround here would flatter every row.
Alaves HOME
v Getafe AWAY
17:30 · SP1 · expected goals
Alaves 1.00 – 0.84 Getafe
Alaves 35%
· draw 30%
· Getafe 35%
| Model | Market | Book odds | Edge |
|---|
| Alaves | 35.3% | 39.9% | 2.37 | -4.7pp |
| Draw | 29.8% | 33.8% | 2.78 | -4.0pp |
| Getafe | 34.9% | 26.3% | 3.53 | +8.7pp |
| Over 1.5 | 55.2% | 31.8% | 3.12 | +23.4pp |
| Under 1.5 | 44.8% | 68.2% | 1.45 | -23.4pp |
| Over 2.5 | 28.8% | 11.2% | 8.53 | +17.6pp |
| Under 2.5 | 71.2% | 88.8% | 1.07 | -17.6pp |
| Over 3.5 | 12.4% | 6.9% | 14.18 | +5.5pp |
| Under 3.5 | 87.6% | 93.1% | 1.05 | -5.5pp |
| BTTS Yes | 40.4% | 25.2% | 3.89 | +15.2pp |
| BTTS No | 59.6% | 74.8% | 1.31 | -15.2pp |
Likeliest scores: 0–0 16% · 1–0 15% · 1–1 14% · 0–1 13%
Correlated combinations
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 23% (fair 4.43); naive multiplication would say 10%, off by +121%
- Getafe win + Getafe clean sheet — 20% (fair 4.90); naive multiplication would say 11%, off by +91%
- Alaves win + Alaves clean sheet — 27% (fair 3.75); naive multiplication would say 16%, off by +65%
- Alaves win + Over 2.5 — 14% (fair 7.00); naive multiplication would say 10%, off by +36%
Sevilla HOME
v Rayo Vallecano AWAY
19:30 · SP1 · expected goals
Sevilla 1.22 – 1.00 Rayo Vallecano
Sevilla 35%
· draw 28%
· Rayo Vallecano 37%
| Model | Market | Book odds | Edge |
|---|
| Sevilla | 35.4% | 42.1% | 2.25 | -6.7pp |
| Draw | 27.7% | 29.5% | 3.17 | -1.8pp |
| Rayo Vallecano | 36.9% | 28.4% | 3.28 | +8.5pp |
| Over 1.5 | 65.0% | 35.3% | 2.67 | +29.6pp |
| Under 1.5 | 35.0% | 64.7% | 1.46 | -29.6pp |
| Over 2.5 | 38.7% | 15.9% | 6.05 | +22.8pp |
| Under 2.5 | 61.3% | 84.1% | 1.15 | -22.8pp |
| Over 3.5 | 19.4% | 10.6% | 9.52 | +8.9pp |
| Under 3.5 | 80.6% | 89.4% | 1.12 | -8.9pp |
| BTTS Yes | 46.5% | 32.8% | 3.00 | +13.7pp |
| BTTS No | 53.5% | 67.2% | 1.47 | -13.7pp |
draw or Rayo Vallecano
65%
Rayo Vallecano clean sheet
29%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 14% · 1–0 13% · 0–0 11% · 0–1 10%
Correlated combinations
- Rayo Vallecano win + Rayo Vallecano clean sheet — 18% (fair 5.53); naive multiplication would say 9%, off by +108%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 31% (fair 3.19); naive multiplication would say 17%, off by +81%
- Sevilla win + Sevilla clean sheet — 25% (fair 3.94); naive multiplication would say 15%, off by +70%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 48% (fair 2.09); naive multiplication would say 34%, off by +41%
Best value in TUR1
| Match | Selection | Model | Fair | Book | EV | Stake |
|---|
| KasımpaşavTrabzonspor | Kasımpaşa H | 25.6% | 3.91 | 4.06 | +3.7% | — |
| KonyasporvRizespor | Konyaspor H | 43.3% | 2.31 | 2.38 | +3.1% | — |
| Gençlerbirliği S.K.vFenerbahçe | Fenerbahçe A | 70.2% | 1.42 | 1.46 | +2.5% | 1.38% |
| Gaziantep FKvAlanyaspor | Draw | 28.2% | 3.54 | 3.31 | -6.5% | — |
| Gaziantep FKvAlanyaspor | Gaziantep FK H | 37.3% | 2.68 | 2.49 | -7.2% | — |
| Gaziantep FKvAlanyaspor | Alanyaspor A | 34.5% | 2.90 | 2.67 | -7.9% | — |
Stake is blank unless a selection clears every gate: positive expected value, at least 5 percentage points of edge over the de-vigged line, and not more than 25 (a disagreement that large is usually the model missing something, not an opportunity). Most rows will be blank most days. Selections marked longshot are below 10% — their EV figure divides by a very small number and should not be trusted. thin data means one side has too few matches in the model's history for its rating to mean anything; the huge edge shown is the model's ignorance, not the market's mistake.
Goal markets in TUR1
| Match | Market | Pick | Model | Fair | Book | EV | Stake |
|---|
| KasımpaşavTrabzonspor | Totals | Over3.5 | 36.1% | 2.77 | 8.06 | +191.2% | 3.00% |
| KonyasporvRizespor | Totals | Over3.5 | 31.7% | 3.15 | 8.17 | +159.3% | 3.00% |
| Gençlerbirliği S.K.vFenerbahçe | Totals | Over3.5 | 33.6% | 2.98 | 7.48 | +151.0% | 3.00% |
| KasımpaşavTrabzonspor | Totals | Over2.5 | 57.6% | 1.73 | 4.19 | +141.5% | — |
| Gençlerbirliği S.K.vFenerbahçe | Totals | Over2.5 | 55.0% | 1.82 | 4.17 | +129.7% | — |
| KonyasporvRizespor | Totals | Over2.5 | 53.1% | 1.88 | 4.31 | +129.0% | — |
One row per market per match: the side the model prefers. The two sides of a two-way line are near mirror images, so showing both would double the table without adding anything. Edges are measured against each pair de-vigged on its own, not against the match-winner margin — books load goals markets more heavily, and borrowing the 1X2 overround here would flatter every row.
Kasımpaşa HOME
v Trabzonspor AWAY
16:00 · TUR1 · expected goals
Kasımpaşa 1.35 – 1.67 Trabzonspor
Kasımpaşa 26%
· draw 24%
· Trabzonspor 51%
| Model | Market | Book odds | Edge |
|---|
| Kasımpaşa | 25.6% | 22.2% | 4.06 | +3.3pp |
| Draw | 23.7% | 24.8% | 3.66 | -1.2pp |
| Trabzonspor | 50.8% | 52.9% | 1.79 | -2.2pp |
| Over 1.5 | 79.8% | 43.5% | 2.16 | +36.3pp |
| Under 1.5 | 20.2% | 56.5% | 1.66 | -36.3pp |
| Over 2.5 | 57.6% | 24.1% | 4.19 | +33.6pp |
| Under 2.5 | 42.4% | 75.9% | 1.33 | -33.6pp |
| Over 3.5 | 36.1% | 12.7% | 8.06 | +23.4pp |
| Under 3.5 | 63.9% | 87.3% | 1.17 | -23.4pp |
| BTTS Yes | 57.4% | 27.6% | 3.84 | +29.9pp |
| BTTS No | 42.6% | 72.4% | 1.46 | -29.9pp |
Trabzonspor clean sheet
26%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 11% · 1–2 9% · 0–1 8% · 2–1 7%
Correlated combinations
- Kasımpaşa win + Kasımpaşa clean sheet — 13% (fair 7.41); naive multiplication would say 6%, off by +134%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 31% (fair 3.27); naive multiplication would say 17%, off by +84%
- Trabzonspor win + Trabzonspor clean sheet — 21% (fair 4.84); naive multiplication would say 12%, off by +78%
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 17% (fair 5.93); naive multiplication would say 10%, off by +62%
Konyaspor HOME
v Rizespor AWAY
16:00 · TUR1 · expected goals
Konyaspor 1.57 – 1.23 Rizespor
Konyaspor 43%
· draw 26%
· Rizespor 31%
| Model | Market | Book odds | Edge |
|---|
| Konyaspor | 43.3% | 39.3% | 2.38 | +4.0pp |
| Draw | 25.9% | 28.5% | 3.22 | -2.6pp |
| Rizespor | 30.8% | 32.2% | 2.88 | -1.4pp |
| Over 1.5 | 76.6% | 43.0% | 2.19 | +33.6pp |
| Under 1.5 | 23.4% | 57.0% | 1.66 | -33.6pp |
| Over 2.5 | 53.1% | 23.4% | 4.31 | +29.7pp |
| Under 2.5 | 46.9% | 76.6% | 1.31 | -29.7pp |
| Over 3.5 | 31.7% | 12.5% | 8.17 | +19.2pp |
| Under 3.5 | 68.3% | 87.5% | 1.17 | -19.2pp |
| BTTS Yes | 54.7% | 30.1% | 3.50 | +24.6pp |
| BTTS No | 45.3% | 69.9% | 1.51 | -24.6pp |
Likeliest scores: 1–1 12% · 2–1 9% · 1–0 9% · 2–0 7%
Correlated combinations
- Rizespor win + Rizespor clean sheet — 14% (fair 7.04); naive multiplication would say 6%, off by +133%
- Konyaspor win + Konyaspor clean sheet — 23% (fair 4.43); naive multiplication would say 13%, off by +73%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 35% (fair 2.90); naive multiplication would say 20%, off by +71%
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 19% (fair 5.34); naive multiplication would say 12%, off by +55%
Gaziantep FK HOME
v Alanyaspor AWAY
18:30 · TUR1 · expected goals
Gaziantep FK 1.34 – 1.31 Alanyaspor
Gaziantep FK 37%
· draw 28%
· Alanyaspor 34%
| Model | Market | Book odds | Edge |
|---|
| Gaziantep FK | 37.3% | 37.5% | 2.49 | -0.2pp |
| Draw | 28.2% | 27.7% | 3.31 | +0.5pp |
| Alanyaspor | 34.5% | 34.8% | 2.67 | -0.3pp |
| Over 1.5 | 73.9% | 42.2% | 2.23 | +31.7pp |
| Under 1.5 | 26.1% | 57.8% | 1.63 | -31.7pp |
| Over 2.5 | 49.5% | 22.8% | 4.40 | +26.7pp |
| Under 2.5 | 50.5% | 77.2% | 1.30 | -26.7pp |
| Over 3.5 | 28.4% | 13.5% | 7.50 | +14.9pp |
| Under 3.5 | 71.6% | 86.5% | 1.17 | -14.9pp |
| BTTS Yes | 53.2% | 29.4% | 3.59 | +23.8pp |
| BTTS No | 46.8% | 70.6% | 1.49 | -23.8pp |
Gaziantep FK clean sheet
27%
Alanyaspor clean sheet
26%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 13% · 1–0 9% · 0–1 9% · 2–1 8%
Correlated combinations
- Alanyaspor win + Alanyaspor clean sheet — 19% (fair 5.38); naive multiplication would say 9%, off by +99%
- Gaziantep FK win + Gaziantep FK clean sheet — 19% (fair 5.17); naive multiplication would say 10%, off by +94%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 38% (fair 2.66); naive multiplication would say 23%, off by +64%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 42% (fair 2.41); naive multiplication would say 27%, off by +54%
Gençlerbirliği S.K. HOME
v Fenerbahçe AWAY
18:30 · TUR1 · expected goals
Gençlerbirliği S.K. 1.00 – 1.89 Fenerbahçe
Gençlerbirliği S.K. 12%
· draw 17%
· Fenerbahçe 70%
| Model | Market | Book odds | Edge |
|---|
| Gençlerbirliği S.K. | 12.4% | 14.0% | 6.16 | -1.5pp |
| Draw | 17.4% | 20.9% | 4.28 | -3.5pp |
| Fenerbahçe | 70.2% | 65.1% | 1.46 | +5.1pp |
| Over 1.5 | 77.9% | 44.8% | 2.10 | +33.2pp |
| Under 1.5 | 22.1% | 55.2% | 1.70 | -33.2pp |
| Over 2.5 | 55.0% | 23.5% | 4.17 | +31.6pp |
| Under 2.5 | 45.0% | 76.5% | 1.28 | -31.6pp |
| Over 3.5 | 33.6% | 13.7% | 7.48 | +19.9pp |
| Under 3.5 | 66.4% | 86.3% | 1.19 | -19.9pp |
| BTTS Yes | 53.0% | 26.4% | 3.92 | +26.5pp |
| BTTS No | 47.0% | 73.6% | 1.41 | -26.5pp |
Gençlerbirliğ… or draw
30%
Gençlerbirliğ… clean sheet
15%
Fenerbahçe clean sheet
37%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 11% · 0–1 10% · 1–2 10% · 0–2 10%
Correlated combinations
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 34% (fair 2.96); naive multiplication would say 20%, off by +65%
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 17% (fair 5.91); naive multiplication would say 10%, off by +64%
- Fenerbahçe win + Fenerbahçe clean sheet — 31% (fair 3.26); naive multiplication would say 21%, off by +45%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 43% (fair 2.31); naive multiplication would say 30%, off by +44%