Model output, not advice. These are probabilities from a
statistical model, published for transparency about how it performs. They are
not tips and not financial advice. In backtests this model does not
reliably beat closing prices, which is the only benchmark that matters, so
expect selections here to lose money over time. 18+. Gambling is addictive; if
it stops being a modelling exercise, stop.
ITCUP 7 fixtures across 3 days
Best goal markets over/under and both teams to score, every day in this window
| Match | Market | Pick | Model | Fair | Book | EV | Stake |
|---|
| BeneventovRavenna | Totals | Over2.5 thin data | 51.4% | 1.94 | 4.99 | +156.6% | — |
| BeneventovRavenna | Totals | Over3.5 thin data | 30.2% | 3.32 | 7.11 | +114.2% | — |
| BeneventovRavenna | Totals | Over1.5 thin data | 75.4% | 1.33 | 2.43 | +82.8% | — |
| BeneventovRavenna | BTTS | Yes— thin data | 54.1% | 1.85 | 3.25 | +76.1% | — |
One row per market per match: the side the model prefers. The two sides of a two-way line are near mirror images, so showing both would double the table without adding anything. Edges are measured against each pair de-vigged on its own, not against the match-winner margin — books load goals markets more heavily, and borrowing the 1X2 overround here would flatter every row.
Best value on this date
| Match | Selection | Model | Fair | Book | EV | Stake |
|---|
| BeneventovRavenna | Ravenna A thin data | 32.9% | 3.04 | 5.08 | +66.9% | — |
| BeneventovRavenna | Draw thin data | 26.7% | 3.75 | 3.67 | -2.2% | — |
| BeneventovRavenna | Benevento H thin data | 40.5% | 2.47 | 1.65 | -33.3% | — |
Stake is blank unless a selection clears every gate: positive expected value, at least 5 percentage points of edge over the de-vigged line, and not more than 25 (a disagreement that large is usually the model missing something, not an opportunity). Most rows will be blank most days. Selections marked longshot are below 10% — their EV figure divides by a very small number and should not be trusted. thin data means one side has too few matches in the model's history for its rating to mean anything; the huge edge shown is the model's ignorance, not the market's mistake.
Goal markets on this date
| Match | Market | Pick | Model | Fair | Book | EV | Stake |
|---|
| BeneventovRavenna | Totals | Over2.5 thin data | 51.4% | 1.94 | 4.99 | +156.6% | — |
| BeneventovRavenna | Totals | Over3.5 thin data | 30.2% | 3.32 | 7.11 | +114.2% | — |
| BeneventovRavenna | Totals | Over1.5 thin data | 75.4% | 1.33 | 2.43 | +82.8% | — |
| BeneventovRavenna | BTTS | Yes— thin data | 54.1% | 1.85 | 3.25 | +76.1% | — |
One row per market per match: the side the model prefers. The two sides of a two-way line are near mirror images, so showing both would double the table without adding anything. Edges are measured against each pair de-vigged on its own, not against the match-winner margin — books load goals markets more heavily, and borrowing the 1X2 overround here would flatter every row.
Benevento HOME
v Ravenna AWAY
19:00 · ITCUP · expected goals
Benevento 1.47 – 1.26 Ravenna
Thin data: Benevento 43 matches, Ravenna 2 in this model's history. Ratings that sparse sit near the league average, which flatters the weaker side badly when the two come from different divisions. Shown for completeness, not as a forecast.
Benevento 40%
· draw 27%
· Ravenna 33%
| Model | Market | Book odds | Edge |
|---|
| Benevento | 40.5% | 57.7% | 1.65 | -17.2pp |
| Draw | 26.7% | 24.9% | 3.67 | +1.8pp |
| Ravenna | 32.9% | 17.4% | 5.08 | +15.4pp |
| Over 1.5 | 75.4% | 38.6% | 2.43 | +36.8pp |
| Under 1.5 | 24.6% | 61.4% | 1.52 | -36.8pp |
| Over 2.5 | 51.4% | 19.8% | 4.99 | +31.7pp |
| Under 2.5 | 48.6% | 80.2% | 1.23 | -31.7pp |
| Over 3.5 | 30.2% | 14.1% | 7.11 | +16.0pp |
| Under 3.5 | 69.8% | 85.9% | 1.17 | -16.0pp |
| BTTS Yes | 54.1% | 29.8% | 3.25 | +24.3pp |
| BTTS No | 45.9% | 70.2% | 1.38 | -24.3pp |
Likeliest scores: 1–1 13% · 1–0 9% · 2–1 9% · 0–1 8%
Correlated combinations
- Ravenna win + Ravenna clean sheet — 16% (fair 6.26); naive multiplication would say 7%, off by +117%
- Benevento win + Benevento clean sheet — 21% (fair 4.71); naive multiplication would say 12%, off by +81%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 36% (fair 2.78); naive multiplication would say 21%, off by +68%
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 20% (fair 5.11); naive multiplication would say 13%, off by +52%
Best value on this date
| Match | Selection | Model | Fair | Book | EV | Stake |
|---|
| ParmavCatania | Parma H thin data | 51.5% | 1.94 | — | — | — |
| MonzavAvellino | Monza H thin data | 43.6% | 2.30 | — | — | — |
| MonzavAvellino | Avellino A thin data | 28.9% | 3.46 | — | — | — |
| MonzavAvellino | Draw thin data | 27.5% | 3.63 | — | — | — |
| ParmavCatania | Draw thin data | 26.7% | 3.75 | — | — | — |
| ParmavCatania | Catania A thin data | 21.8% | 4.58 | — | — | — |
Stake is blank unless a selection clears every gate: positive expected value, at least 5 percentage points of edge over the de-vigged line, and not more than 25 (a disagreement that large is usually the model missing something, not an opportunity). Most rows will be blank most days. Selections marked longshot are below 10% — their EV figure divides by a very small number and should not be trusted. thin data means one side has too few matches in the model's history for its rating to mean anything; the huge edge shown is the model's ignorance, not the market's mistake.
Parma HOME
v Catania AWAY
16:00 · ITCUP · expected goals
Parma 1.30 – 1.04 Catania
Thin data: Parma 169 matches, Catania 4 in this model's history. Ratings that sparse sit near the league average, which flatters the weaker side badly when the two come from different divisions. Shown for completeness, not as a forecast.
Parma 51%
· draw 27%
· Catania 22%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 14% · 1–0 12% · 0–0 10% · 0–1 9%
Correlated combinations
- Catania win + Catania clean sheet — 17% (fair 5.85); naive multiplication would say 8%, off by +114%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 34% (fair 2.94); naive multiplication would say 20%, off by +72%
- Parma win + Parma clean sheet — 25% (fair 3.98); naive multiplication would say 15%, off by +70%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 45% (fair 2.22); naive multiplication would say 31%, off by +47%
Monza HOME
v Avellino AWAY
18:45 · ITCUP · expected goals
Monza 1.28 – 1.20 Avellino
Thin data: Monza 129 matches, Avellino 5 in this model's history. Ratings that sparse sit near the league average, which flatters the weaker side badly when the two come from different divisions. Shown for completeness, not as a forecast.
Monza 44%
· draw 28%
· Avellino 29%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 13% · 1–0 10% · 0–1 10% · 0–0 9%
Correlated combinations
- Avellino win + Avellino clean sheet — 19% (fair 5.28); naive multiplication would say 9%, off by +100%
- Monza win + Monza clean sheet — 21% (fair 4.73); naive multiplication would say 11%, off by +86%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 38% (fair 2.66); naive multiplication would say 23%, off by +63%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 41% (fair 2.41); naive multiplication would say 27%, off by +54%
Best value on this date
| Match | Selection | Model | Fair | Book | EV | Stake |
|---|
| UdinesevPadova | Udinese H thin data | 62.4% | 1.60 | — | — | — |
| TorinovCarrarese | Torino H thin data | 58.9% | 1.70 | — | — | — |
| VeneziavModena | Venezia H thin data | 45.6% | 2.19 | — | — | — |
| CatanzarovSudtirol | Catanzaro H thin data | 42.1% | 2.37 | — | — | — |
| CatanzarovSudtirol | Sudtirol A thin data | 30.4% | 3.28 | — | — | — |
| VeneziavModena | Draw thin data | 27.6% | 3.62 | — | — | — |
Stake is blank unless a selection clears every gate: positive expected value, at least 5 percentage points of edge over the de-vigged line, and not more than 25 (a disagreement that large is usually the model missing something, not an opportunity). Most rows will be blank most days. Selections marked longshot are below 10% — their EV figure divides by a very small number and should not be trusted. thin data means one side has too few matches in the model's history for its rating to mean anything; the huge edge shown is the model's ignorance, not the market's mistake.
Catanzaro HOME
v Sudtirol AWAY
16:00 · ITCUP · expected goals
Catanzaro 1.40 – 1.24 Sudtirol
Thin data: Catanzaro 12 matches, Sudtirol 9 in this model's history. Ratings that sparse sit near the league average, which flatters the weaker side badly when the two come from different divisions. Shown for completeness, not as a forecast.
Catanzaro 42%
· draw 27%
· Sudtirol 30%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 13% · 1–0 9% · 2–1 9% · 0–1 8%
Correlated combinations
- Sudtirol win + Sudtirol clean sheet — 17% (fair 5.88); naive multiplication would say 8%, off by +110%
- Catanzaro win + Catanzaro clean sheet — 21% (fair 4.71); naive multiplication would say 12%, off by +83%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 38% (fair 2.64); naive multiplication would say 23%, off by +63%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 41% (fair 2.43); naive multiplication would say 27%, off by +55%
Udinese HOME
v Padova AWAY
16:30 · ITCUP · expected goals
Udinese 1.69 – 0.94 Padova
Thin data: Udinese 284 matches, Padova 7 in this model's history. Ratings that sparse sit near the league average, which flatters the weaker side badly when the two come from different divisions. Shown for completeness, not as a forecast.
Udinese 62%
· draw 22%
· Padova 16%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 12% · 1–0 12% · 2–0 10% · 2–1 10%
Correlated combinations
- Padova win + Padova clean sheet — 11% (fair 9.25); naive multiplication would say 4%, off by +185%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 38% (fair 2.61); naive multiplication would say 25%, off by +56%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 39% (fair 2.56); naive multiplication would say 25%, off by +54%
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 20% (fair 5.10); naive multiplication would say 13%, off by +53%
Venezia HOME
v Modena AWAY
18:45 · ITCUP · expected goals
Venezia 1.29 – 1.17 Modena
Thin data: Venezia 89 matches, Modena 7 in this model's history. Ratings that sparse sit near the league average, which flatters the weaker side badly when the two come from different divisions. Shown for completeness, not as a forecast.
Venezia 46%
· draw 28%
· Modena 27%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 13% · 1–0 10% · 0–1 9% · 0–0 9%
Correlated combinations
- Modena win + Modena clean sheet — 18% (fair 5.41); naive multiplication would say 9%, off by +103%
- Venezia win + Venezia clean sheet — 22% (fair 4.56); naive multiplication would say 12%, off by +83%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 37% (fair 2.70); naive multiplication would say 22%, off by +65%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 42% (fair 2.38); naive multiplication would say 28%, off by +53%
Torino HOME
v Carrarese AWAY
19:15 · ITCUP · expected goals
Torino 1.59 – 1.02 Carrarese
Thin data: Torino 291 matches, Carrarese 7 in this model's history. Ratings that sparse sit near the league average, which flatters the weaker side badly when the two come from different divisions. Shown for completeness, not as a forecast.
Torino 59%
· draw 24%
· Carrarese 17%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 12% · 1–0 11% · 2–1 9% · 2–0 9%
Correlated combinations
- Carrarese win + Carrarese clean sheet — 13% (fair 7.95); naive multiplication would say 5%, off by +158%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 39% (fair 2.56); naive multiplication would say 25%, off by +57%
- Torino win + Torino clean sheet — 28% (fair 3.56); naive multiplication would say 18%, off by +56%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 39% (fair 2.55); naive multiplication would say 25%, off by +56%