Model output, not advice. These are probabilities from a
statistical model, published for transparency about how it performs. They are
not tips and not financial advice. In backtests this model does not
reliably beat closing prices, which is the only benchmark that matters, so
expect selections here to lose money over time. 18+. Gambling is addictive; if
it stops being a modelling exercise, stop.
NOR1 5 fixtures across 3 days
Best goal markets over/under and both teams to score, every day in this window
| Match | Market | Pick | Model | Fair | Book | EV | Stake |
|---|
| KFUM OslovLillestrom | Totals | Over2.5 | 50.5% | 1.98 | 5.40 | +172.8% | — |
| RosenborgvViking | Totals | Over3.5 | 45.3% | 2.21 | 6.00 | +171.8% | — |
| LillestromvRosenborg | Totals | Over3.5 | 36.8% | 2.72 | 7.03 | +158.2% | 3.00% |
| RosenborgvViking | Totals | Over2.5 | 66.2% | 1.51 | 3.69 | +143.8% | — |
| RosenborgvViking | BTTS | Yes— | 62.8% | 1.59 | 3.73 | +134.1% | — |
| Kristiansund BKvMolde | Totals | Over3.5 | 35.6% | 2.81 | 6.28 | +123.7% | 3.00% |
| LillestromvRosenborg | Totals | Over2.5 | 58.2% | 1.72 | 3.63 | +111.5% | — |
| Ham-KamvAalesund | Totals | Over3.5 | 30.6% | 3.27 | 6.38 | +94.9% | 3.00% |
| Kristiansund BKvMolde | Totals | Over2.5 | 57.1% | 1.75 | 3.24 | +85.2% | — |
| Ham-KamvAalesund | Totals | Over2.5 | 51.9% | 1.93 | 3.40 | +76.6% | 3.00% |
| RosenborgvViking | Totals | Over1.5 | 85.2% | 1.17 | 1.95 | +65.9% | — |
| LillestromvRosenborg | BTTS | Yes— | 58.0% | 1.72 | 2.76 | +60.0% | 3.00% |
| LillestromvRosenborg | Totals | Over1.5 | 80.2% | 1.25 | 1.96 | +57.1% | — |
| Kristiansund BKvMolde | BTTS | Yes— | 55.6% | 1.80 | 2.73 | +52.0% | 3.00% |
| Kristiansund BKvMolde | Totals | Over1.5 | 79.4% | 1.26 | 1.84 | +45.9% | — |
| Ham-KamvAalesund | Totals | Over1.5 | 75.7% | 1.32 | 1.89 | +42.9% | — |
| KFUM OslovLillestrom | Totals | Over1.5 | 74.7% | 1.34 | 1.87 | +39.6% | — |
| Ham-KamvAalesund | BTTS | Yes— | 52.2% | 1.91 | 2.65 | +38.2% | 3.00% |
| KFUM OslovLillestrom | BTTS | No— | 48.0% | 2.08 | 2.25 | +8.0% | 1.60% |
| KFUM OslovLillestrom | Totals | Under3.5 | 70.7% | 1.41 | 1.41 | -0.3% | — |
One row per market per match: the side the model prefers. The two sides of a two-way line are near mirror images, so showing both would double the table without adding anything. Edges are measured against each pair de-vigged on its own, not against the match-winner margin — books load goals markets more heavily, and borrowing the 1X2 overround here would flatter every row.
Best value on this date
| Match | Selection | Model | Fair | Book | EV | Stake |
|---|
| Ham-KamvAalesund | Ham-Kam H | 56.0% | 1.78 | 2.10 | +17.6% | 3.00% |
| LillestromvRosenborg | Rosenborg A | 40.2% | 2.49 | 2.75 | +10.4% | 1.49% |
| Kristiansund BKvMolde | Molde A | 57.2% | 1.75 | 1.66 | -4.9% | — |
| LillestromvRosenborg | Draw | 26.6% | 3.76 | 3.53 | -6.1% | — |
| Kristiansund BKvMolde | Kristiansund BK H | 20.7% | 4.82 | 4.50 | -6.6% | — |
| Kristiansund BKvMolde | Draw | 22.1% | 4.53 | 3.99 | -11.9% | — |
Stake is blank unless a selection clears every gate: positive expected value, at least 5 percentage points of edge over the de-vigged line, and not more than 25 (a disagreement that large is usually the model missing something, not an opportunity). Most rows will be blank most days. Selections marked longshot are below 10% — their EV figure divides by a very small number and should not be trusted. thin data means one side has too few matches in the model's history for its rating to mean anything; the huge edge shown is the model's ignorance, not the market's mistake.
Goal markets on this date
| Match | Market | Pick | Model | Fair | Book | EV | Stake |
|---|
| LillestromvRosenborg | Totals | Over3.5 | 36.8% | 2.72 | 7.03 | +158.2% | 3.00% |
| Kristiansund BKvMolde | Totals | Over3.5 | 35.6% | 2.81 | 6.28 | +123.7% | 3.00% |
| LillestromvRosenborg | Totals | Over2.5 | 58.2% | 1.72 | 3.63 | +111.5% | — |
| Ham-KamvAalesund | Totals | Over3.5 | 30.6% | 3.27 | 6.38 | +94.9% | 3.00% |
| Kristiansund BKvMolde | Totals | Over2.5 | 57.1% | 1.75 | 3.24 | +85.2% | — |
| Ham-KamvAalesund | Totals | Over2.5 | 51.9% | 1.93 | 3.40 | +76.6% | 3.00% |
One row per market per match: the side the model prefers. The two sides of a two-way line are near mirror images, so showing both would double the table without adding anything. Edges are measured against each pair de-vigged on its own, not against the match-winner margin — books load goals markets more heavily, and borrowing the 1X2 overround here would flatter every row.
Lillestrom HOME
v Rosenborg AWAY
12:30 · NOR1 · expected goals
Lillestrom 1.40 – 1.64 Rosenborg
Lillestrom 33%
· draw 27%
· Rosenborg 40%
| Model | Market | Book odds | Edge |
|---|
| Lillestrom | 33.2% | 40.1% | 2.34 | -6.9pp |
| Draw | 26.6% | 26.0% | 3.53 | +0.6pp |
| Rosenborg | 40.2% | 33.9% | 2.75 | +6.3pp |
| Over 1.5 | 80.2% | 47.9% | 1.96 | +32.3pp |
| Under 1.5 | 19.8% | 52.1% | 1.80 | -32.3pp |
| Over 2.5 | 58.2% | 28.0% | 3.63 | +30.3pp |
| Under 2.5 | 41.8% | 72.0% | 1.41 | -30.3pp |
| Over 3.5 | 36.8% | 14.6% | 7.03 | +22.2pp |
| Under 3.5 | 63.2% | 85.4% | 1.20 | -22.2pp |
| BTTS Yes | 58.0% | 38.9% | 2.76 | +19.1pp |
| BTTS No | 42.0% | 61.1% | 1.76 | -19.1pp |
Lillestrom clean sheet
19%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 11% · 1–2 9% · 2–1 8% · 0–1 7%
Correlated combinations
- Lillestrom win + Lillestrom clean sheet — 14% (fair 7.05); naive multiplication would say 6%, off by +125%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 30% (fair 3.34); naive multiplication would say 16%, off by +87%
- Rosenborg win + Rosenborg clean sheet — 19% (fair 5.17); naive multiplication would say 10%, off by +84%
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 17% (fair 5.99); naive multiplication would say 10%, off by +62%
Ham-Kam HOME
v Aalesund AWAY
15:00 · NOR1 · expected goals
Ham-Kam 1.73 – 1.02 Aalesund
Ham-Kam 56%
· draw 23%
· Aalesund 21%
| Model | Market | Book odds | Edge |
|---|
| Ham-Kam | 56.0% | 45.0% | 2.10 | +11.0pp |
| Draw | 22.5% | 25.2% | 3.64 | -2.6pp |
| Aalesund | 21.4% | 29.8% | 3.11 | -8.4pp |
| Over 1.5 | 75.7% | 49.8% | 1.89 | +25.9pp |
| Under 1.5 | 24.3% | 50.2% | 1.88 | -25.9pp |
| Over 2.5 | 51.9% | 30.0% | 3.40 | +21.9pp |
| Under 2.5 | 48.1% | 70.0% | 1.46 | -21.9pp |
| Over 3.5 | 30.6% | 16.2% | 6.38 | +14.4pp |
| Under 3.5 | 69.4% | 83.8% | 1.23 | -14.4pp |
| BTTS Yes | 52.2% | 40.6% | 2.65 | +11.6pp |
| BTTS No | 47.8% | 59.4% | 1.81 | -11.6pp |
Likeliest scores: 1–1 12% · 1–0 11% · 2–1 10% · 2–0 10%
Correlated combinations
- Aalesund win + Aalesund clean sheet — 11% (fair 9.22); naive multiplication would say 4%, off by +182%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 36% (fair 2.76); naive multiplication would say 22%, off by +61%
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 19% (fair 5.38); naive multiplication would say 12%, off by +57%
- Ham-Kam win + Ham-Kam clean sheet — 29% (fair 3.43); naive multiplication would say 19%, off by +51%
Kristiansund BK HOME
v Molde AWAY
17:15 · NOR1 · expected goals
Kristiansund BK 1.15 – 1.84 Molde
Kristiansund BK 21%
· draw 22%
· Molde 57%
| Model | Market | Book odds | Edge |
|---|
| Kristiansund BK | 20.7% | 20.0% | 4.50 | +0.8pp |
| Draw | 22.1% | 22.8% | 3.99 | -0.7pp |
| Molde | 57.2% | 57.2% | 1.66 | -0.0pp |
| Over 1.5 | 79.4% | 51.3% | 1.84 | +28.2pp |
| Under 1.5 | 20.6% | 48.7% | 1.93 | -28.2pp |
| Over 2.5 | 57.1% | 31.5% | 3.24 | +25.6pp |
| Under 2.5 | 42.9% | 68.5% | 1.49 | -25.6pp |
| Over 3.5 | 35.6% | 16.7% | 6.28 | +19.0pp |
| Under 3.5 | 64.4% | 83.3% | 1.26 | -19.0pp |
| BTTS Yes | 55.6% | 39.3% | 2.73 | +16.4pp |
| BTTS No | 44.4% | 60.7% | 1.77 | -16.4pp |
Kristiansund … or draw
43%
Kristiansund … clean sheet
16%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 11% · 1–2 10% · 0–1 9% · 0–2 8%
Correlated combinations
- Kristiansund … win + Kristiansund … clean sheet — 10% (fair 9.57); naive multiplication would say 4%, off by +181%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 31% (fair 3.18); naive multiplication would say 18%, off by +76%
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 17% (fair 6.03); naive multiplication would say 10%, off by +64%
- Molde win + Molde clean sheet — 26% (fair 3.83); naive multiplication would say 17%, off by +56%
Best value on this date
| Match | Selection | Model | Fair | Book | EV | Stake |
|---|
| RosenborgvViking | Viking A | 54.1% | 1.85 | 2.08 | +12.6% | 2.91% |
| RosenborgvViking | Draw | 21.4% | 4.67 | 3.71 | -20.7% | — |
| RosenborgvViking | Rosenborg H | 24.5% | 4.08 | 3.12 | -23.5% | — |
Stake is blank unless a selection clears every gate: positive expected value, at least 5 percentage points of edge over the de-vigged line, and not more than 25 (a disagreement that large is usually the model missing something, not an opportunity). Most rows will be blank most days. Selections marked longshot are below 10% — their EV figure divides by a very small number and should not be trusted. thin data means one side has too few matches in the model's history for its rating to mean anything; the huge edge shown is the model's ignorance, not the market's mistake.
Goal markets on this date
| Match | Market | Pick | Model | Fair | Book | EV | Stake |
|---|
| RosenborgvViking | Totals | Over3.5 | 45.3% | 2.21 | 6.00 | +171.8% | — |
| RosenborgvViking | Totals | Over2.5 | 66.2% | 1.51 | 3.69 | +143.8% | — |
| RosenborgvViking | BTTS | Yes— | 62.8% | 1.59 | 3.73 | +134.1% | — |
| RosenborgvViking | Totals | Over1.5 | 85.2% | 1.17 | 1.95 | +65.9% | — |
One row per market per match: the side the model prefers. The two sides of a two-way line are near mirror images, so showing both would double the table without adding anything. Edges are measured against each pair de-vigged on its own, not against the match-winner margin — books load goals markets more heavily, and borrowing the 1X2 overround here would flatter every row.
Rosenborg HOME
v Viking AWAY
17:00 · NOR1 · expected goals
Rosenborg 1.65 – 1.79 Viking
Rosenborg 25%
· draw 21%
· Viking 54%
| Model | Market | Book odds | Edge |
|---|
| Rosenborg | 24.5% | 29.8% | 3.12 | -5.2pp |
| Draw | 21.4% | 24.8% | 3.71 | -3.4pp |
| Viking | 54.1% | 45.5% | 2.08 | +8.6pp |
| Over 1.5 | 85.2% | 48.2% | 1.95 | +37.1pp |
| Under 1.5 | 14.8% | 51.8% | 1.81 | -37.1pp |
| Over 2.5 | 66.2% | 27.9% | 3.69 | +38.3pp |
| Under 2.5 | 33.8% | 72.1% | 1.43 | -38.3pp |
| Over 3.5 | 45.3% | 18.0% | 6.00 | +27.3pp |
| Under 3.5 | 54.7% | 82.0% | 1.32 | -27.3pp |
| BTTS Yes | 62.8% | 29.8% | 3.73 | +32.9pp |
| BTTS No | 37.2% | 70.2% | 1.58 | -32.9pp |
Likeliest scores: 1–1 10% · 1–2 8% · 2–1 8% · 2–2 7%
Correlated combinations
- Rosenborg win + Rosenborg clean sheet — 13% (fair 7.65); naive multiplication would say 6%, off by +121%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 23% (fair 4.29); naive multiplication would say 11%, off by +118%
- Viking win + Viking clean sheet — 16% (fair 6.41); naive multiplication would say 8%, off by +97%
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 13% (fair 7.42); naive multiplication would say 8%, off by +75%
Best value on this date
| Match | Selection | Model | Fair | Book | EV | Stake |
|---|
| KFUM OslovLillestrom | KFUM Oslo H | 55.8% | 1.79 | 2.76 | +53.9% | 3.00% |
| KFUM OslovLillestrom | Draw | 24.2% | 4.13 | 3.49 | -15.7% | — |
| KFUM OslovLillestrom | Lillestrom A | 20.0% | 4.99 | 2.39 | -52.1% | — |
Stake is blank unless a selection clears every gate: positive expected value, at least 5 percentage points of edge over the de-vigged line, and not more than 25 (a disagreement that large is usually the model missing something, not an opportunity). Most rows will be blank most days. Selections marked longshot are below 10% — their EV figure divides by a very small number and should not be trusted. thin data means one side has too few matches in the model's history for its rating to mean anything; the huge edge shown is the model's ignorance, not the market's mistake.
Goal markets on this date
| Match | Market | Pick | Model | Fair | Book | EV | Stake |
|---|
| KFUM OslovLillestrom | Totals | Over2.5 | 50.5% | 1.98 | 5.40 | +172.8% | — |
| KFUM OslovLillestrom | Totals | Over1.5 | 74.7% | 1.34 | 1.87 | +39.6% | — |
| KFUM OslovLillestrom | BTTS | No— | 48.0% | 2.08 | 2.25 | +8.0% | 1.60% |
| KFUM OslovLillestrom | Totals | Under3.5 | 70.7% | 1.41 | 1.41 | -0.3% | — |
One row per market per match: the side the model prefers. The two sides of a two-way line are near mirror images, so showing both would double the table without adding anything. Edges are measured against each pair de-vigged on its own, not against the match-winner margin — books load goals markets more heavily, and borrowing the 1X2 overround here would flatter every row.
KFUM Oslo HOME
v Lillestrom AWAY
14:00 · NOR1 · expected goals
KFUM Oslo 1.65 – 1.04 Lillestrom
KFUM Oslo 56%
· draw 24%
· Lillestrom 20%
| Model | Market | Book odds | Edge |
|---|
| KFUM Oslo | 55.8% | 34.0% | 2.76 | +21.8pp |
| Draw | 24.2% | 26.5% | 3.49 | -2.4pp |
| Lillestrom | 20.0% | 39.5% | 2.39 | -19.5pp |
| Over 1.5 | 74.7% | 49.0% | 1.87 | +25.6pp |
| Under 1.5 | 25.3% | 51.0% | 1.80 | -25.6pp |
| Over 2.5 | 50.5% | 17.1% | 5.40 | +33.5pp |
| Under 2.5 | 49.5% | 82.9% | 1.11 | -33.5pp |
| Over 3.5 | 29.3% | 35.2% | 2.60 | -5.9pp |
| Under 3.5 | 70.7% | 64.8% | 1.41 | +5.9pp |
| BTTS Yes | 52.0% | 59.2% | 1.55 | -7.2pp |
| BTTS No | 48.0% | 40.8% | 2.25 | +7.2pp |
Lillestrom clean sheet
19%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 12% · 1–0 11% · 2–1 10% · 2–0 9%
Correlated combinations
- Lillestrom win + Lillestrom clean sheet — 12% (fair 8.41); naive multiplication would say 4%, off by +166%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 37% (fair 2.68); naive multiplication would say 23%, off by +60%
- KFUM Oslo win + KFUM Oslo clean sheet — 28% (fair 3.57); naive multiplication would say 18%, off by +55%
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 19% (fair 5.17); naive multiplication would say 13%, off by +54%