Model output, not advice. These are probabilities from a
statistical model, published for transparency about how it performs. They are
not tips and not financial advice. In backtests this model does not
reliably beat closing prices, which is the only benchmark that matters, so
expect selections here to lose money over time. 18+. Gambling is addictive; if
it stops being a modelling exercise, stop.
P1 7 fixtures across 4 days
Best goal markets over/under and both teams to score, every day in this window
| Match | Market | Pick | Model | Fair | Book | EV | Stake |
|---|
| MoreirensevSC Braga | Totals | Over3.5 | 27.9% | 3.58 | 9.09 | +153.7% | 3.00% |
| FC PortovAlverca | Totals | Over3.5 | 32.2% | 3.10 | 7.03 | +126.6% | 3.00% |
| GIL VicentevRio Ave | Totals | Over3.5 | 25.0% | 4.01 | 8.86 | +121.1% | 3.00% |
| Sporting CPvGuimaraes | Totals | Over3.5 | 42.8% | 2.33 | 5.09 | +118.2% | 3.00% |
| MoreirensevSC Braga | Totals | Over2.5 | 49.0% | 2.04 | 4.37 | +113.8% | — |
| FC PortovAlverca | Totals | Over2.5 | 53.7% | 1.86 | 3.74 | +100.7% | — |
| GIL VicentevRio Ave | Totals | Over2.5 | 45.6% | 2.19 | 4.36 | +99.0% | 3.00% |
| Sporting CPvGuimaraes | Totals | Over2.5 | 64.0% | 1.56 | 2.73 | +74.7% | — |
| MoreirensevSC Braga | Totals | Over1.5 | 73.5% | 1.36 | 2.32 | +70.2% | — |
| GIL VicentevRio Ave | Totals | Over1.5 | 70.8% | 1.41 | 2.32 | +64.0% | — |
| Santa ClaravNacional | Totals | Over2.5 | 33.9% | 2.95 | 4.68 | +58.4% | 3.00% |
| Sporting CPvGuimaraes | BTTS | Yes— | 49.3% | 2.03 | 3.21 | +58.4% | 3.00% |
| Santa ClaravNacional | Totals | Over1.5 | 60.4% | 1.66 | 2.52 | +52.3% | 3.00% |
| Sporting CPvGuimaraes | Totals | Over1.5 | 83.8% | 1.19 | 1.81 | +51.9% | — |
| MoreirensevSC Braga | BTTS | Yes— | 50.8% | 1.97 | 2.94 | +49.4% | 3.00% |
| FC PortovAlverca | BTTS | Yes— | 42.9% | 2.33 | 3.48 | +49.2% | 3.00% |
| FC PortovAlverca | Totals | Over1.5 | 76.8% | 1.30 | 1.91 | +46.6% | — |
| GIL VicentevRio Ave | BTTS | Yes— | 49.0% | 2.04 | 2.74 | +34.5% | 3.00% |
| Santa ClaravNacional | Totals | Over3.5 | 15.8% | 6.32 | 8.30 | +31.3% | — |
| Santa ClaravNacional | BTTS | Yes— | 43.1% | 2.32 | 3.02 | +30.1% | 3.00% |
One row per market per match: the side the model prefers. The two sides of a two-way line are near mirror images, so showing both would double the table without adding anything. Edges are measured against each pair de-vigged on its own, not against the match-winner margin — books load goals markets more heavily, and borrowing the 1X2 overround here would flatter every row.
Best value on this date
| Match | Selection | Model | Fair | Book | EV | Stake |
|---|
| FC PortovAlverca | Draw | 19.1% | 5.22 | 6.72 | +28.6% | 1.25% |
| GIL VicentevRio Ave | GIL Vicente H | 51.5% | 1.94 | 1.98 | +2.1% | — |
| MoreirensevSC Braga | SC Braga A | 57.7% | 1.73 | 1.66 | -4.5% | — |
| MoreirensevSC Braga | Draw | 25.1% | 3.98 | 3.77 | -5.3% | — |
| GIL VicentevRio Ave | Draw | 25.7% | 3.89 | 3.41 | -12.3% | — |
| MoreirensevSC Braga | Moreirense H | 17.2% | 5.83 | 5.10 | -12.4% | — |
Stake is blank unless a selection clears every gate: positive expected value, at least 5 percentage points of edge over the de-vigged line, and not more than 25 (a disagreement that large is usually the model missing something, not an opportunity). Most rows will be blank most days. Selections marked longshot are below 10% — their EV figure divides by a very small number and should not be trusted. thin data means one side has too few matches in the model's history for its rating to mean anything; the huge edge shown is the model's ignorance, not the market's mistake.
Goal markets on this date
| Match | Market | Pick | Model | Fair | Book | EV | Stake |
|---|
| MoreirensevSC Braga | Totals | Over3.5 | 27.9% | 3.58 | 9.09 | +153.7% | 3.00% |
| FC PortovAlverca | Totals | Over3.5 | 32.2% | 3.10 | 7.03 | +126.6% | 3.00% |
| GIL VicentevRio Ave | Totals | Over3.5 | 25.0% | 4.01 | 8.86 | +121.1% | 3.00% |
| MoreirensevSC Braga | Totals | Over2.5 | 49.0% | 2.04 | 4.37 | +113.8% | — |
| FC PortovAlverca | Totals | Over2.5 | 53.7% | 1.86 | 3.74 | +100.7% | — |
| GIL VicentevRio Ave | Totals | Over2.5 | 45.6% | 2.19 | 4.36 | +99.0% | 3.00% |
One row per market per match: the side the model prefers. The two sides of a two-way line are near mirror images, so showing both would double the table without adding anything. Edges are measured against each pair de-vigged on its own, not against the match-winner margin — books load goals markets more heavily, and borrowing the 1X2 overround here would flatter every row.
FC Porto HOME
v Alverca AWAY
17:00 · P1 · expected goals
FC Porto 2.25 – 0.59 Alverca
FC Porto 74%
· draw 19%
· Alverca 7%
| Model | Market | Book odds | Edge |
|---|
| FC Porto | 73.6% | 81.6% | 1.18 | -8.1pp |
| Draw | 19.1% | 13.0% | 6.72 | +6.1pp |
| Alverca | 7.3% | 5.4% | 14.22 | +1.9pp |
| Over 1.5 | 76.8% | 49.2% | 1.91 | +27.7pp |
| Under 1.5 | 23.2% | 50.8% | 1.85 | -27.7pp |
| Over 2.5 | 53.7% | 26.2% | 3.74 | +27.5pp |
| Under 2.5 | 46.3% | 73.8% | 1.33 | -27.5pp |
| Over 3.5 | 32.2% | 14.7% | 7.03 | +17.5pp |
| Under 3.5 | 67.8% | 85.3% | 1.22 | -17.5pp |
| BTTS Yes | 42.9% | 27.6% | 3.48 | +15.3pp |
| BTTS No | 57.1% | 72.4% | 1.33 | -15.3pp |
Likeliest scores: 2–0 15% · 1–0 13% · 3–0 11% · 2–1 9%
Correlated combinations
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 14% (fair 7.00); naive multiplication would say 8%, off by +79%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 32% (fair 3.13); naive multiplication would say 22%, off by +48%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 38% (fair 2.63); naive multiplication would say 28%, off by +38%
- draw or Alverca + Under 3.5 — 21% (fair 4.78); naive multiplication would say 17%, off by +22%
GIL Vicente HOME
v Rio Ave AWAY
19:30 · P1 · expected goals
GIL Vicente 1.55 – 0.94 Rio Ave
GIL Vicente 51%
· draw 26%
· Rio Ave 23%
| Model | Market | Book odds | Edge |
|---|
| GIL Vicente | 51.5% | 48.0% | 1.98 | +3.5pp |
| Draw | 25.7% | 27.2% | 3.41 | -1.5pp |
| Rio Ave | 22.8% | 24.8% | 3.72 | -2.0pp |
| Over 1.5 | 70.8% | 40.6% | 2.32 | +30.2pp |
| Under 1.5 | 29.2% | 59.4% | 1.58 | -30.2pp |
| Over 2.5 | 45.6% | 23.0% | 4.36 | +22.6pp |
| Under 2.5 | 54.4% | 77.0% | 1.30 | -22.6pp |
| Over 3.5 | 25.0% | 11.4% | 8.86 | +13.6pp |
| Under 3.5 | 75.0% | 88.6% | 1.14 | -13.6pp |
| BTTS Yes | 49.0% | 35.9% | 2.74 | +13.1pp |
| BTTS No | 51.0% | 64.1% | 1.54 | -13.1pp |
GIL Vicente clean sheet
39%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 13% · 1–0 12% · 2–0 10% · 2–1 9%
Correlated combinations
- Rio Ave win + Rio Ave clean sheet — 12% (fair 8.00); naive multiplication would say 5%, off by +160%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 36% (fair 2.78); naive multiplication would say 22%, off by +63%
- GIL Vicente win + GIL Vicente clean sheet — 30% (fair 3.32); naive multiplication would say 20%, off by +52%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 42% (fair 2.38); naive multiplication would say 28%, off by +50%
Moreirense HOME
v SC Braga AWAY
19:30 · P1 · expected goals
Moreirense 0.99 – 1.64 SC Braga
Moreirense 17%
· draw 25%
· SC Braga 58%
| Model | Market | Book odds | Edge |
|---|
| Moreirense | 17.2% | 17.7% | 5.10 | -0.5pp |
| Draw | 25.1% | 24.5% | 3.77 | +0.6pp |
| SC Braga | 57.7% | 57.8% | 1.66 | -0.1pp |
| Over 1.5 | 73.5% | 40.6% | 2.32 | +32.9pp |
| Under 1.5 | 26.5% | 59.4% | 1.58 | -32.9pp |
| Over 2.5 | 49.0% | 23.0% | 4.37 | +26.0pp |
| Under 2.5 | 51.0% | 77.0% | 1.30 | -26.0pp |
| Over 3.5 | 27.9% | 11.2% | 9.09 | +16.8pp |
| Under 3.5 | 72.1% | 88.8% | 1.14 | -16.8pp |
| BTTS Yes | 50.8% | 33.3% | 2.94 | +17.5pp |
| BTTS No | 49.2% | 66.7% | 1.47 | -17.5pp |
Moreirense clean sheet
19%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 12% · 0–1 11% · 0–2 10% · 1–2 10%
Correlated combinations
- Moreirense win + Moreirense clean sheet — 12% (fair 8.61); naive multiplication would say 4%, off by +172%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 39% (fair 2.57); naive multiplication would say 25%, off by +56%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 39% (fair 2.57); naive multiplication would say 25%, off by +56%
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 20% (fair 5.03); naive multiplication would say 13%, off by +52%
Best value on this date
| Match | Selection | Model | Fair | Book | EV | Stake |
|---|
| Santa ClaravNacional | Nacional A | 24.2% | 4.13 | 4.20 | +1.8% | — |
| Santa ClaravNacional | Draw | 29.8% | 3.36 | 3.32 | -1.1% | — |
| Santa ClaravNacional | Santa Clara H | 46.0% | 2.17 | 1.88 | -13.5% | — |
Stake is blank unless a selection clears every gate: positive expected value, at least 5 percentage points of edge over the de-vigged line, and not more than 25 (a disagreement that large is usually the model missing something, not an opportunity). Most rows will be blank most days. Selections marked longshot are below 10% — their EV figure divides by a very small number and should not be trusted. thin data means one side has too few matches in the model's history for its rating to mean anything; the huge edge shown is the model's ignorance, not the market's mistake.
Goal markets on this date
| Match | Market | Pick | Model | Fair | Book | EV | Stake |
|---|
| Santa ClaravNacional | Totals | Over2.5 | 33.9% | 2.95 | 4.68 | +58.4% | 3.00% |
| Santa ClaravNacional | Totals | Over1.5 | 60.4% | 1.66 | 2.52 | +52.3% | 3.00% |
| Santa ClaravNacional | Totals | Over3.5 | 15.8% | 6.32 | 8.30 | +31.3% | — |
| Santa ClaravNacional | BTTS | Yes— | 43.1% | 2.32 | 3.02 | +30.1% | 3.00% |
One row per market per match: the side the model prefers. The two sides of a two-way line are near mirror images, so showing both would double the table without adding anything. Edges are measured against each pair de-vigged on its own, not against the match-winner margin — books load goals markets more heavily, and borrowing the 1X2 overround here would flatter every row.
Santa Clara HOME
v Nacional AWAY
19:15 · P1 · expected goals
Santa Clara 1.18 – 0.85 Nacional
Santa Clara 46%
· draw 30%
· Nacional 24%
| Model | Market | Book odds | Edge |
|---|
| Santa Clara | 46.0% | 50.5% | 1.88 | -4.5pp |
| Draw | 29.8% | 27.8% | 3.32 | +1.9pp |
| Nacional | 24.2% | 21.6% | 4.20 | +2.6pp |
| Over 1.5 | 60.4% | 37.3% | 2.52 | +23.1pp |
| Under 1.5 | 39.6% | 62.7% | 1.50 | -23.1pp |
| Over 2.5 | 33.9% | 21.2% | 4.68 | +12.7pp |
| Under 2.5 | 66.1% | 78.8% | 1.26 | -12.7pp |
| Over 3.5 | 15.8% | 12.1% | 8.30 | +3.7pp |
| Under 3.5 | 84.2% | 87.9% | 1.14 | -3.7pp |
| BTTS Yes | 43.1% | 32.5% | 3.02 | +10.6pp |
| BTTS No | 56.9% | 67.5% | 1.45 | -10.6pp |
Santa Clara clean sheet
43%
Likeliest scores: 1–0 15% · 1–1 14% · 0–0 14% · 0–1 11%
Correlated combinations
- Nacional win + Nacional clean sheet — 17% (fair 5.86); naive multiplication would say 8%, off by +114%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 27% (fair 3.77); naive multiplication would say 13%, off by +99%
- Santa Clara win + Santa Clara clean sheet — 29% (fair 3.45); naive multiplication would say 18%, off by +58%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 53% (fair 1.88); naive multiplication would say 40%, off by +33%
Best value on this date
| Match | Selection | Model | Fair | Book | EV | Stake |
|---|
| Sporting CPvGuimaraes | Draw | 14.2% | 7.05 | 7.03 | -0.3% | — |
| Sporting CPvGuimaraes | Sporting CP H | 78.2% | 1.28 | 1.18 | -7.7% | — |
| Sporting CPvGuimaraes | Guimaraes A longshot | 7.6% | 13.15 | 13.66 | +3.9% | — |
Stake is blank unless a selection clears every gate: positive expected value, at least 5 percentage points of edge over the de-vigged line, and not more than 25 (a disagreement that large is usually the model missing something, not an opportunity). Most rows will be blank most days. Selections marked longshot are below 10% — their EV figure divides by a very small number and should not be trusted. thin data means one side has too few matches in the model's history for its rating to mean anything; the huge edge shown is the model's ignorance, not the market's mistake.
Goal markets on this date
| Match | Market | Pick | Model | Fair | Book | EV | Stake |
|---|
| Sporting CPvGuimaraes | Totals | Over3.5 | 42.8% | 2.33 | 5.09 | +118.2% | 3.00% |
| Sporting CPvGuimaraes | Totals | Over2.5 | 64.0% | 1.56 | 2.73 | +74.7% | — |
| Sporting CPvGuimaraes | BTTS | Yes— | 49.3% | 2.03 | 3.21 | +58.4% | 3.00% |
| Sporting CPvGuimaraes | Totals | Over1.5 | 83.8% | 1.19 | 1.81 | +51.9% | — |
One row per market per match: the side the model prefers. The two sides of a two-way line are near mirror images, so showing both would double the table without adding anything. Edges are measured against each pair de-vigged on its own, not against the match-winner margin — books load goals markets more heavily, and borrowing the 1X2 overround here would flatter every row.
Sporting CP HOME
v Guimaraes AWAY
19:15 · P1 · expected goals
Sporting CP 2.58 – 0.75 Guimaraes
Sporting CP 78%
· draw 14%
· Guimaraes 8%
| Model | Market | Book odds | Edge |
|---|
| Sporting CP | 78.2% | 81.9% | 1.18 | -3.7pp |
| Draw | 14.2% | 12.4% | 7.03 | +1.8pp |
| Guimaraes | 7.6% | 5.7% | 13.66 | +1.9pp |
| Over 1.5 | 83.8% | 52.1% | 1.81 | +31.7pp |
| Under 1.5 | 16.2% | 47.9% | 1.97 | -31.7pp |
| Over 2.5 | 64.0% | 38.5% | 2.73 | +25.5pp |
| Under 2.5 | 36.0% | 61.5% | 1.71 | -25.5pp |
| Over 3.5 | 42.8% | 21.8% | 5.09 | +21.1pp |
| Under 3.5 | 57.2% | 78.2% | 1.42 | -21.1pp |
| BTTS Yes | 49.3% | 29.6% | 3.21 | +19.7pp |
| BTTS No | 50.7% | 70.4% | 1.35 | -19.7pp |
Sporting CP clean sheet
47%
Likeliest scores: 2–0 12% · 3–0 10% · 1–0 9% · 2–1 9%
Correlated combinations
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 11% (fair 9.00); naive multiplication would say 5%, off by +105%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 28% (fair 3.55); naive multiplication would say 18%, off by +56%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 42% (fair 2.39); naive multiplication would say 32%, off by +32%
- draw or Guimaraes + Under 3.5 — 17% (fair 5.76); naive multiplication would say 14%, off by +28%
Best value on this date
| Match | Selection | Model | Fair | Book | EV | Stake |
|---|
| Rio AvevFC Porto | FC Porto A | 64.7% | 1.55 | — | — | — |
| AlvercavEstrela | Alverca H | 50.4% | 1.99 | — | — | — |
| AlvercavEstrela | Draw | 27.2% | 3.68 | — | — | — |
| AlvercavEstrela | Estrela A | 22.4% | 4.46 | — | — | — |
| Rio AvevFC Porto | Draw | 19.8% | 5.06 | — | — | — |
| Rio AvevFC Porto | Rio Ave H | 15.6% | 6.42 | — | — | — |
Stake is blank unless a selection clears every gate: positive expected value, at least 5 percentage points of edge over the de-vigged line, and not more than 25 (a disagreement that large is usually the model missing something, not an opportunity). Most rows will be blank most days. Selections marked longshot are below 10% — their EV figure divides by a very small number and should not be trusted. thin data means one side has too few matches in the model's history for its rating to mean anything; the huge edge shown is the model's ignorance, not the market's mistake.
Alverca HOME
v Estrela AWAY
14:30 · P1 · expected goals
Alverca 1.41 – 1.00 Estrela
Alverca 50%
· draw 27%
· Estrela 22%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 13% · 1–0 12% · 0–0 10% · 2–1 9%
Correlated combinations
- Estrela win + Estrela clean sheet — 15% (fair 6.68); naive multiplication would say 6%, off by +132%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 35% (fair 2.85); naive multiplication would say 21%, off by +68%
- Alverca win + Alverca clean sheet — 27% (fair 3.68); naive multiplication would say 17%, off by +62%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 44% (fair 2.30); naive multiplication would say 29%, off by +48%
Rio Ave HOME
v FC Porto AWAY
19:30 · P1 · expected goals
Rio Ave 0.75 – 1.86 FC Porto
Rio Ave 16%
· draw 20%
· FC Porto 65%
Likeliest scores: 0–1 13% · 0–2 13% · 1–1 11% · 1–2 10%
Correlated combinations
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 18% (fair 5.42); naive multiplication would say 12%, off by +58%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 34% (fair 2.92); naive multiplication would say 22%, off by +58%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 41% (fair 2.44); naive multiplication would say 28%, off by +44%
- FC Porto win + FC Porto clean sheet — 40% (fair 2.52); naive multiplication would say 30%, off by +32%