Model output, not advice. These are probabilities from a
statistical model, published for transparency about how it performs. They are
not tips and not financial advice. In backtests this model does not
reliably beat closing prices, which is the only benchmark that matters, so
expect selections here to lose money over time. 18+. Gambling is addictive; if
it stops being a modelling exercise, stop.
AUT1 6 fixtures across 3 days
Best goal markets over/under and both teams to score, every day in this window
| Match | Market | Pick | Model | Fair | Book | EV | Stake |
|---|
| Wolfsberger ACvRed Bull Salzburg | Totals | Over3.5 | 34.3% | 2.91 | 7.27 | +149.4% | 3.00% |
| Austria ViennavLask Linz | Totals | Over3.5 | 32.0% | 3.12 | 7.73 | +147.4% | 3.00% |
| Austria ViennavLask Linz | Totals | Over2.5 | 53.4% | 1.87 | 4.13 | +120.5% | — |
| Wolfsberger ACvRed Bull Salzburg | Totals | Over2.5 | 55.8% | 1.79 | 3.70 | +106.6% | — |
| RiedvRapid Vienna | Totals | Over2.5 | 44.9% | 2.22 | 4.59 | +106.4% | 3.00% |
| Sturm GrazvSCR Altach | Totals | Over2.5 | 45.8% | 2.18 | 4.41 | +101.9% | 3.00% |
| Sturm GrazvSCR Altach | BTTS | Yes— | 45.8% | 2.18 | 4.24 | +94.0% | 3.00% |
| RiedvRapid Vienna | Totals | Over3.5 | 24.4% | 4.10 | 7.58 | +84.9% | 3.00% |
| Austria ViennavLask Linz | BTTS | Yes— | 55.4% | 1.80 | 3.20 | +77.6% | 3.00% |
| Sturm GrazvSCR Altach | Totals | Over3.5 | 25.1% | 3.98 | 6.98 | +75.2% | 3.00% |
| Lask LinzvRied | BTTS | Yes— | 51.4% | 1.95 | 3.40 | +74.7% | 3.00% |
| Wolfsberger ACvRed Bull Salzburg | BTTS | Yes— | 56.7% | 1.76 | 2.99 | +69.6% | 3.00% |
| RiedvRapid Vienna | BTTS | Yes— | 50.5% | 1.98 | 3.35 | +69.2% | 3.00% |
| Austria ViennavLask Linz | Totals | Over1.5 | 76.8% | 1.30 | 2.18 | +67.4% | — |
| RiedvRapid Vienna | Totals | Over1.5 | 70.3% | 1.42 | 2.34 | +64.8% | — |
| Sturm GrazvSCR Altach | Totals | Over1.5 | 70.9% | 1.41 | 2.28 | +61.6% | — |
| Wolfsberger ACvRed Bull Salzburg | Totals | Over1.5 | 78.5% | 1.27 | 1.99 | +56.2% | — |
| Lask LinzvRied | Totals | Under1.5 | 23.0% | 4.34 | 4.33 | -0.2% | — |
| Lask LinzvRied | Totals | Under3.5 | 67.7% | 1.48 | 1.44 | -2.4% | — |
One row per market per match: the side the model prefers. The two sides of a two-way line are near mirror images, so showing both would double the table without adding anything. Edges are measured against each pair de-vigged on its own, not against the match-winner margin — books load goals markets more heavily, and borrowing the 1X2 overround here would flatter every row.
Best value on this date
| Match | Selection | Model | Fair | Book | EV | Stake |
|---|
| Wolfsberger ACvRed Bull Salzburg | Wolfsberger AC H | 31.0% | 3.22 | 3.72 | +15.3% | 1.41% |
| RiedvRapid Vienna | Draw | 32.0% | 3.12 | 3.24 | +3.8% | — |
| Austria ViennavLask Linz | Lask Linz A | 49.5% | 2.02 | 1.97 | -2.7% | — |
| Austria ViennavLask Linz | Austria Vienna H | 26.7% | 3.74 | 3.51 | -6.0% | — |
| Wolfsberger ACvRed Bull Salzburg | Draw | 25.0% | 4.00 | 3.73 | -6.9% | — |
| RiedvRapid Vienna | Ried H | 31.2% | 3.21 | 2.97 | -7.5% | — |
Stake is blank unless a selection clears every gate: positive expected value, at least 5 percentage points of edge over the de-vigged line, and not more than 25 (a disagreement that large is usually the model missing something, not an opportunity). Most rows will be blank most days. Selections marked longshot are below 10% — their EV figure divides by a very small number and should not be trusted. thin data means one side has too few matches in the model's history for its rating to mean anything; the huge edge shown is the model's ignorance, not the market's mistake.
Goal markets on this date
| Match | Market | Pick | Model | Fair | Book | EV | Stake |
|---|
| Wolfsberger ACvRed Bull Salzburg | Totals | Over3.5 | 34.3% | 2.91 | 7.27 | +149.4% | 3.00% |
| Austria ViennavLask Linz | Totals | Over3.5 | 32.0% | 3.12 | 7.73 | +147.4% | 3.00% |
| Austria ViennavLask Linz | Totals | Over2.5 | 53.4% | 1.87 | 4.13 | +120.5% | — |
| Wolfsberger ACvRed Bull Salzburg | Totals | Over2.5 | 55.8% | 1.79 | 3.70 | +106.6% | — |
| RiedvRapid Vienna | Totals | Over2.5 | 44.9% | 2.22 | 4.59 | +106.4% | 3.00% |
| RiedvRapid Vienna | Totals | Over3.5 | 24.4% | 4.10 | 7.58 | +84.9% | 3.00% |
One row per market per match: the side the model prefers. The two sides of a two-way line are near mirror images, so showing both would double the table without adding anything. Edges are measured against each pair de-vigged on its own, not against the match-winner margin — books load goals markets more heavily, and borrowing the 1X2 overround here would flatter every row.
Ried HOME
v Rapid Vienna AWAY
15:00 · AUT1 · expected goals
Ried 1.20 – 1.27 Rapid Vienna
Ried 31%
· draw 32%
· Rapid Vienna 37%
| Model | Market | Book odds | Edge |
|---|
| Ried | 31.2% | 31.3% | 2.97 | -0.1pp |
| Draw | 32.0% | 28.5% | 3.24 | +3.6pp |
| Rapid Vienna | 36.8% | 40.3% | 2.33 | -3.5pp |
| Over 1.5 | 70.3% | 40.1% | 2.34 | +30.2pp |
| Under 1.5 | 29.7% | 59.9% | 1.57 | -30.2pp |
| Over 2.5 | 44.9% | 22.1% | 4.59 | +22.9pp |
| Under 2.5 | 55.1% | 77.9% | 1.30 | -22.9pp |
| Over 3.5 | 24.4% | 13.4% | 7.58 | +11.1pp |
| Under 3.5 | 75.6% | 86.6% | 1.17 | -11.1pp |
| BTTS Yes | 50.5% | 31.4% | 3.35 | +19.1pp |
| BTTS No | 49.5% | 68.6% | 1.54 | -19.1pp |
Rapid Vienna clean sheet
30%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 13% · 0–1 10% · 1–0 10% · 0–0 9%
Correlated combinations
- Ried win + Ried clean sheet — 19% (fair 5.24); naive multiplication would say 10%, off by +99%
- Rapid Vienna win + Rapid Vienna clean sheet — 21% (fair 4.72); naive multiplication would say 11%, off by +86%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 37% (fair 2.68); naive multiplication would say 23%, off by +64%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 42% (fair 2.39); naive multiplication would say 27%, off by +53%
Wolfsberger AC HOME
v Red Bull Salzburg AWAY
15:00 · AUT1 · expected goals
Wolfsberger AC 1.41 – 1.52 Red Bull Salzburg
Wolfsberger AC 31%
· draw 25%
· Red Bull Salzburg 44%
| Model | Market | Book odds | Edge |
|---|
| Wolfsberger AC | 31.0% | 24.6% | 3.72 | +6.4pp |
| Draw | 25.0% | 24.6% | 3.73 | +0.4pp |
| Red Bull Salzburg | 44.0% | 50.8% | 1.87 | -6.8pp |
| Over 1.5 | 78.5% | 47.2% | 1.99 | +31.3pp |
| Under 1.5 | 21.5% | 52.8% | 1.78 | -31.3pp |
| Over 2.5 | 55.8% | 27.4% | 3.70 | +28.4pp |
| Under 2.5 | 44.2% | 72.6% | 1.40 | -28.4pp |
| Over 3.5 | 34.3% | 14.1% | 7.27 | +20.2pp |
| Under 3.5 | 65.7% | 85.9% | 1.20 | -20.2pp |
| BTTS Yes | 56.7% | 36.3% | 2.99 | +20.4pp |
| BTTS No | 43.3% | 63.7% | 1.70 | -20.4pp |
Wolfsberger AC or draw
56%
draw or Red Bull Salz…
69%
Wolfsberger AC clean sheet
22%
Red Bull Salz… clean sheet
25%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 12% · 1–2 9% · 2–1 8% · 0–1 8%
Correlated combinations
- Wolfsberger AC win + Wolfsberger AC clean sheet — 16% (fair 6.26); naive multiplication would say 8%, off by +112%
- Red Bull Salz… win + Red Bull Salz… clean sheet — 19% (fair 5.35); naive multiplication would say 10%, off by +91%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 32% (fair 3.12); naive multiplication would say 18%, off by +80%
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 18% (fair 5.63); naive multiplication would say 11%, off by +58%
Austria Vienna HOME
v Lask Linz AWAY
17:00 · AUT1 · expected goals
Austria Vienna 1.42 – 1.40 Lask Linz
Austria Vienna 27%
· draw 24%
· Lask Linz 49%
| Model | Market | Book odds | Edge |
|---|
| Austria Vienna | 26.7% | 26.2% | 3.51 | +0.6pp |
| Draw | 23.8% | 25.7% | 3.57 | -1.9pp |
| Lask Linz | 49.5% | 48.2% | 1.97 | +1.3pp |
| Over 1.5 | 76.8% | 43.1% | 2.18 | +33.7pp |
| Under 1.5 | 23.2% | 56.9% | 1.65 | -33.7pp |
| Over 2.5 | 53.4% | 24.8% | 4.13 | +28.6pp |
| Under 2.5 | 46.6% | 75.2% | 1.36 | -28.6pp |
| Over 3.5 | 32.0% | 13.2% | 7.73 | +18.8pp |
| Under 3.5 | 68.0% | 86.8% | 1.18 | -18.8pp |
| BTTS Yes | 55.4% | 33.2% | 3.20 | +22.2pp |
| BTTS No | 44.6% | 66.8% | 1.60 | -22.2pp |
Austria Vienna or draw
51%
Austria Vienna clean sheet
25%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 12% · 2–1 8% · 1–2 8% · 1–0 8%
Correlated combinations
- Lask Linz win + Lask Linz clean sheet — 18% (fair 5.62); naive multiplication would say 9%, off by +100%
- Austria Vienna win + Austria Vienna clean sheet — 18% (fair 5.52); naive multiplication would say 9%, off by +98%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 34% (fair 2.93); naive multiplication would say 20%, off by +73%
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 19% (fair 5.32); naive multiplication would say 12%, off by +55%
Best value on this date
| Match | Selection | Model | Fair | Book | EV | Stake |
|---|
| Lask LinzvRied | Lask Linz H | 66.7% | 1.50 | 1.49 | -0.6% | — |
| Lask LinzvRied | Draw | 20.8% | 4.82 | 4.23 | -12.1% | — |
| Lask LinzvRied | Ried A | 12.5% | 8.00 | 6.16 | -23.0% | — |
Stake is blank unless a selection clears every gate: positive expected value, at least 5 percentage points of edge over the de-vigged line, and not more than 25 (a disagreement that large is usually the model missing something, not an opportunity). Most rows will be blank most days. Selections marked longshot are below 10% — their EV figure divides by a very small number and should not be trusted. thin data means one side has too few matches in the model's history for its rating to mean anything; the huge edge shown is the model's ignorance, not the market's mistake.
Goal markets on this date
| Match | Market | Pick | Model | Fair | Book | EV | Stake |
|---|
| Lask LinzvRied | BTTS | Yes— | 51.4% | 1.95 | 3.40 | +74.7% | 3.00% |
| Lask LinzvRied | Totals | Under1.5 | 23.0% | 4.34 | 4.33 | -0.2% | — |
| Lask LinzvRied | Totals | Under3.5 | 67.7% | 1.48 | 1.44 | -2.4% | — |
One row per market per match: the side the model prefers. The two sides of a two-way line are near mirror images, so showing both would double the table without adding anything. Edges are measured against each pair de-vigged on its own, not against the match-winner margin — books load goals markets more heavily, and borrowing the 1X2 overround here would flatter every row.
Lask Linz HOME
v Ried AWAY
17:30 · AUT1 · expected goals
Lask Linz 1.90 – 0.93 Ried
Lask Linz 67%
· draw 21%
· Ried 13%
| Model | Market | Book odds | Edge |
|---|
| Lask Linz | 66.7% | 64.3% | 1.49 | +2.5pp |
| Draw | 20.8% | 21.5% | 4.23 | -0.7pp |
| Ried | 12.5% | 14.3% | 6.16 | -1.7pp |
| Over 1.5 | 77.0% | 78.3% | 1.20 | -1.3pp |
| Under 1.5 | 23.0% | 21.7% | 4.33 | +1.3pp |
| Over 3.5 | 32.3% | 35.5% | 2.62 | -3.2pp |
| Under 3.5 | 67.7% | 64.5% | 1.44 | +3.2pp |
| BTTS Yes | 51.4% | 27.7% | 3.40 | +23.7pp |
| BTTS No | 48.6% | 72.3% | 1.30 | -23.7pp |
Likeliest scores: 1–1 11% · 1–0 11% · 2–0 11% · 2–1 10%
Correlated combinations
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 17% (fair 5.82); naive multiplication would say 11%, off by +63%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 35% (fair 2.83); naive multiplication would say 22%, off by +59%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 41% (fair 2.43); naive multiplication would say 28%, off by +47%
- Lask Linz win + Lask Linz clean sheet — 33% (fair 3.02); naive multiplication would say 24%, off by +41%
Best value on this date
| Match | Selection | Model | Fair | Book | EV | Stake |
|---|
| Sturm GrazvSCR Altach | Sturm Graz H | 65.5% | 1.53 | 1.73 | +13.1% | 3.00% |
| Austria LustenauvWolfsberger AC | Draw | 31.2% | 3.20 | 3.00 | -6.3% | — |
| Sturm GrazvSCR Altach | Draw | 20.9% | 4.78 | 3.73 | -21.9% | — |
| Sturm GrazvSCR Altach | SCR Altach A | 13.6% | 7.35 | 4.56 | -38.0% | — |
| Austria LustenauvWolfsberger AC | Wolfsberger AC A | 38.7% | 2.59 | 1.50 | -42.0% | — |
| Austria LustenauvWolfsberger AC | Austria Lustenau H | 30.1% | 3.32 | 1.50 | -54.9% | — |
Stake is blank unless a selection clears every gate: positive expected value, at least 5 percentage points of edge over the de-vigged line, and not more than 25 (a disagreement that large is usually the model missing something, not an opportunity). Most rows will be blank most days. Selections marked longshot are below 10% — their EV figure divides by a very small number and should not be trusted. thin data means one side has too few matches in the model's history for its rating to mean anything; the huge edge shown is the model's ignorance, not the market's mistake.
Goal markets on this date
| Match | Market | Pick | Model | Fair | Book | EV | Stake |
|---|
| Sturm GrazvSCR Altach | Totals | Over2.5 | 45.8% | 2.18 | 4.41 | +101.9% | 3.00% |
| Sturm GrazvSCR Altach | BTTS | Yes— | 45.8% | 2.18 | 4.24 | +94.0% | 3.00% |
| Sturm GrazvSCR Altach | Totals | Over3.5 | 25.1% | 3.98 | 6.98 | +75.2% | 3.00% |
| Sturm GrazvSCR Altach | Totals | Over1.5 | 70.9% | 1.41 | 2.28 | +61.6% | — |
One row per market per match: the side the model prefers. The two sides of a two-way line are near mirror images, so showing both would double the table without adding anything. Edges are measured against each pair de-vigged on its own, not against the match-winner margin — books load goals markets more heavily, and borrowing the 1X2 overround here would flatter every row.
Austria Lustenau HOME
v Wolfsberger AC AWAY
15:00 · AUT1 · expected goals
Austria Lustenau 1.23 – 1.46 Wolfsberger AC
Austria Lustenau 30%
· draw 31%
· Wolfsberger AC 39%
| Model | Market | Book odds | Edge |
|---|
| Austria Lustenau | 30.1% | 42.5% | 1.50 | -12.5pp |
| Draw | 31.2% | 14.9% | 3.00 | +16.3pp |
| Wolfsberger AC | 38.7% | 42.5% | 1.50 | -3.9pp |
Austria Luste… or draw
61%
draw or Wolfsberger AC
70%
Austria Luste… clean sheet
23%
Wolfsberger AC clean sheet
29%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 13% · 0–1 9% · 1–2 9% · 1–0 8%
Correlated combinations
- Austria Luste… win + Austria Luste… clean sheet — 16% (fair 6.27); naive multiplication would say 7%, off by +118%
- Wolfsberger AC win + Wolfsberger AC clean sheet — 22% (fair 4.57); naive multiplication would say 12%, off by +79%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 37% (fair 2.71); naive multiplication would say 22%, off by +65%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 42% (fair 2.37); naive multiplication would say 28%, off by +52%
Sturm Graz HOME
v SCR Altach AWAY
17:30 · AUT1 · expected goals
Sturm Graz 1.75 – 0.75 SCR Altach
Sturm Graz 65%
· draw 21%
· SCR Altach 14%
| Model | Market | Book odds | Edge |
|---|
| Sturm Graz | 65.5% | 55.3% | 1.73 | +10.1pp |
| Draw | 20.9% | 24.7% | 3.73 | -3.8pp |
| SCR Altach | 13.6% | 20.0% | 4.56 | -6.4pp |
| Over 1.5 | 70.9% | 44.4% | 2.28 | +26.5pp |
| Under 1.5 | 29.1% | 55.6% | 1.82 | -26.5pp |
| Over 2.5 | 45.8% | 23.6% | 4.41 | +22.1pp |
| Under 2.5 | 54.2% | 76.4% | 1.37 | -22.1pp |
| Over 3.5 | 25.1% | 14.8% | 6.98 | +10.3pp |
| Under 3.5 | 74.9% | 85.2% | 1.21 | -10.3pp |
| BTTS Yes | 45.8% | 24.3% | 4.24 | +21.5pp |
| BTTS No | 54.2% | 75.7% | 1.36 | -21.5pp |
Sturm Graz clean sheet
47%
SCR Altach clean sheet
17%
Likeliest scores: 1–0 14% · 2–0 13% · 1–1 11% · 2–1 9%
Correlated combinations
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 33% (fair 3.05); naive multiplication would say 20%, off by +63%
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 20% (fair 5.02); naive multiplication would say 13%, off by +52%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 43% (fair 2.32); naive multiplication would say 30%, off by +42%
- Sturm Graz win + Sturm Graz clean sheet — 39% (fair 2.59); naive multiplication would say 29%, off by +34%