Model output, not advice. These are probabilities from a
statistical model, published for transparency about how it performs. They are
not tips and not financial advice. In backtests this model does not
reliably beat closing prices, which is the only benchmark that matters, so
expect selections here to lose money over time. 18+. Gambling is addictive; if
it stops being a modelling exercise, stop.
SP1 2 fixtures across 1 day
Best goal markets over/under and both teams to score, every day in this window
| Match | Market | Pick | Model | Fair | Book | EV | Stake |
|---|
| AlavesvGetafe | Totals | Over2.5 | 28.8% | 3.47 | 8.53 | +145.8% | 3.00% |
| SevillavRayo Vallecano | Totals | Over2.5 | 38.7% | 2.58 | 6.05 | +134.6% | 3.00% |
| SevillavRayo Vallecano | Totals | Over3.5 | 19.4% | 5.15 | 9.52 | +84.9% | 2.49% |
| AlavesvGetafe | Totals | Over3.5 | 12.4% | 8.05 | 14.18 | +76.1% | 1.44% |
| SevillavRayo Vallecano | Totals | Over1.5 | 65.0% | 1.54 | 2.67 | +73.8% | — |
| AlavesvGetafe | Totals | Over1.5 | 55.2% | 1.81 | 3.12 | +72.1% | 3.00% |
| AlavesvGetafe | BTTS | Yes— | 40.4% | 2.48 | 3.89 | +56.8% | 3.00% |
| SevillavRayo Vallecano | BTTS | Yes— | 46.5% | 2.15 | 3.00 | +39.7% | 3.00% |
One row per market per match: the side the model prefers. The two sides of a two-way line are near mirror images, so showing both would double the table without adding anything. Edges are measured against each pair de-vigged on its own, not against the match-winner margin — books load goals markets more heavily, and borrowing the 1X2 overround here would flatter every row.
Best value on this date
| Match | Selection | Model | Fair | Book | EV | Stake |
|---|
| AlavesvGetafe | Getafe A | 34.9% | 2.86 | 3.53 | +23.4% | 2.31% |
| SevillavRayo Vallecano | Rayo Vallecano A | 36.9% | 2.71 | 3.28 | +20.9% | 2.29% |
| SevillavRayo Vallecano | Draw | 27.7% | 3.61 | 3.17 | -12.4% | — |
| AlavesvGetafe | Alaves H | 35.3% | 2.83 | 2.37 | -16.4% | — |
| AlavesvGetafe | Draw | 29.8% | 3.36 | 2.78 | -17.1% | — |
| SevillavRayo Vallecano | Sevilla H | 35.4% | 2.82 | 2.25 | -20.2% | — |
Stake is blank unless a selection clears every gate: positive expected value, at least 5 percentage points of edge over the de-vigged line, and not more than 25 (a disagreement that large is usually the model missing something, not an opportunity). Most rows will be blank most days. Selections marked longshot are below 10% — their EV figure divides by a very small number and should not be trusted. thin data means one side has too few matches in the model's history for its rating to mean anything; the huge edge shown is the model's ignorance, not the market's mistake.
Goal markets on this date
| Match | Market | Pick | Model | Fair | Book | EV | Stake |
|---|
| AlavesvGetafe | Totals | Over2.5 | 28.8% | 3.47 | 8.53 | +145.8% | 3.00% |
| SevillavRayo Vallecano | Totals | Over2.5 | 38.7% | 2.58 | 6.05 | +134.6% | 3.00% |
| SevillavRayo Vallecano | Totals | Over3.5 | 19.4% | 5.15 | 9.52 | +84.9% | 2.49% |
| AlavesvGetafe | Totals | Over3.5 | 12.4% | 8.05 | 14.18 | +76.1% | 1.44% |
| SevillavRayo Vallecano | Totals | Over1.5 | 65.0% | 1.54 | 2.67 | +73.8% | — |
| AlavesvGetafe | Totals | Over1.5 | 55.2% | 1.81 | 3.12 | +72.1% | 3.00% |
One row per market per match: the side the model prefers. The two sides of a two-way line are near mirror images, so showing both would double the table without adding anything. Edges are measured against each pair de-vigged on its own, not against the match-winner margin — books load goals markets more heavily, and borrowing the 1X2 overround here would flatter every row.
Alaves HOME
v Getafe AWAY
17:30 · SP1 · expected goals
Alaves 1.00 – 0.84 Getafe
Alaves 35%
· draw 30%
· Getafe 35%
| Model | Market | Book odds | Edge |
|---|
| Alaves | 35.3% | 39.9% | 2.37 | -4.7pp |
| Draw | 29.8% | 33.8% | 2.78 | -4.0pp |
| Getafe | 34.9% | 26.3% | 3.53 | +8.7pp |
| Over 1.5 | 55.2% | 31.8% | 3.12 | +23.4pp |
| Under 1.5 | 44.8% | 68.2% | 1.45 | -23.4pp |
| Over 2.5 | 28.8% | 11.2% | 8.53 | +17.6pp |
| Under 2.5 | 71.2% | 88.8% | 1.07 | -17.6pp |
| Over 3.5 | 12.4% | 6.9% | 14.18 | +5.5pp |
| Under 3.5 | 87.6% | 93.1% | 1.05 | -5.5pp |
| BTTS Yes | 40.4% | 25.2% | 3.89 | +15.2pp |
| BTTS No | 59.6% | 74.8% | 1.31 | -15.2pp |
Likeliest scores: 0–0 16% · 1–0 15% · 1–1 14% · 0–1 13%
Correlated combinations
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 23% (fair 4.43); naive multiplication would say 10%, off by +121%
- Getafe win + Getafe clean sheet — 20% (fair 4.90); naive multiplication would say 11%, off by +91%
- Alaves win + Alaves clean sheet — 27% (fair 3.75); naive multiplication would say 16%, off by +65%
- Alaves win + Over 2.5 — 14% (fair 7.00); naive multiplication would say 10%, off by +36%
Sevilla HOME
v Rayo Vallecano AWAY
19:30 · SP1 · expected goals
Sevilla 1.22 – 1.00 Rayo Vallecano
Sevilla 35%
· draw 28%
· Rayo Vallecano 37%
| Model | Market | Book odds | Edge |
|---|
| Sevilla | 35.4% | 42.1% | 2.25 | -6.7pp |
| Draw | 27.7% | 29.5% | 3.17 | -1.8pp |
| Rayo Vallecano | 36.9% | 28.4% | 3.28 | +8.5pp |
| Over 1.5 | 65.0% | 35.3% | 2.67 | +29.6pp |
| Under 1.5 | 35.0% | 64.7% | 1.46 | -29.6pp |
| Over 2.5 | 38.7% | 15.9% | 6.05 | +22.8pp |
| Under 2.5 | 61.3% | 84.1% | 1.15 | -22.8pp |
| Over 3.5 | 19.4% | 10.6% | 9.52 | +8.9pp |
| Under 3.5 | 80.6% | 89.4% | 1.12 | -8.9pp |
| BTTS Yes | 46.5% | 32.8% | 3.00 | +13.7pp |
| BTTS No | 53.5% | 67.2% | 1.47 | -13.7pp |
draw or Rayo Vallecano
65%
Rayo Vallecano clean sheet
29%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 14% · 1–0 13% · 0–0 11% · 0–1 10%
Correlated combinations
- Rayo Vallecano win + Rayo Vallecano clean sheet — 18% (fair 5.53); naive multiplication would say 9%, off by +108%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 31% (fair 3.19); naive multiplication would say 17%, off by +81%
- Sevilla win + Sevilla clean sheet — 25% (fair 3.94); naive multiplication would say 15%, off by +70%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 48% (fair 2.09); naive multiplication would say 34%, off by +41%