Model output, not advice. These are probabilities from a
statistical model, published for transparency about how it performs. They are
not tips and not financial advice. In backtests this model does not
reliably beat closing prices, which is the only benchmark that matters, so
expect selections here to lose money over time. 18+. Gambling is addictive; if
it stops being a modelling exercise, stop.
MLS 5 fixtures across 1 day
Best goal markets over/under and both teams to score, every day in this window
| Match | Market | Pick | Model | Fair | Book | EV | Stake |
|---|
| CF MontrealvDC United | Totals | Over3.5 | 34.4% | 2.90 | 7.08 | +143.7% | 3.00% |
| CF MontrealvDC United | Totals | Over2.5 | 55.9% | 1.79 | 3.90 | +117.8% | — |
| CharlottevColumbus Crew | Totals | Over2.5 | 53.8% | 1.86 | 3.89 | +109.6% | — |
| CharlottevColumbus Crew | Totals | Over3.5 | 32.4% | 3.09 | 6.41 | +107.5% | 3.00% |
| Toronto FCvNew England Revolution | Totals | Over2.5 | 48.7% | 2.05 | 4.11 | +100.4% | 3.00% |
| Atlanta United FCvNew York Red Bulls | Totals | Over3.5 | 29.9% | 3.35 | 6.69 | +99.9% | 3.00% |
| CF MontrealvDC United | BTTS | Yes— | 55.7% | 1.80 | 3.54 | +97.3% | 3.00% |
| Orlando City SCvFC Cincinnati | Totals | Over3.5 | 34.6% | 2.89 | 5.28 | +82.9% | 3.00% |
| Toronto FCvNew England Revolution | Totals | Over3.5 | 27.7% | 3.61 | 6.55 | +81.4% | 3.00% |
| CharlottevColumbus Crew | BTTS | Yes— | 55.6% | 1.80 | 3.22 | +79.2% | 3.00% |
| Toronto FCvNew England Revolution | BTTS | Yes— | 52.5% | 1.90 | 3.15 | +65.7% | 3.00% |
| Atlanta United FCvNew York Red Bulls | Totals | Over2.5 | 51.2% | 1.95 | 3.15 | +60.9% | 3.00% |
| CF MontrealvDC United | Totals | Over1.5 | 78.6% | 1.27 | 2.02 | +59.1% | — |
| CharlottevColumbus Crew | Totals | Over1.5 | 77.1% | 1.30 | 2.01 | +54.9% | — |
| Toronto FCvNew England Revolution | Totals | Over1.5 | 73.3% | 1.36 | 2.02 | +48.2% | — |
| Orlando City SCvFC Cincinnati | Totals | Over2.5 | 56.1% | 1.78 | 2.58 | +44.6% | 3.00% |
| Atlanta United FCvNew York Red Bulls | BTTS | Yes— | 54.1% | 1.85 | 2.63 | +42.6% | 3.00% |
| Atlanta United FCvNew York Red Bulls | Totals | Over1.5 | 75.2% | 1.33 | 1.76 | +32.6% | 3.00% |
| Orlando City SCvFC Cincinnati | BTTS | Yes— | 56.4% | 1.77 | 2.22 | +25.2% | 3.00% |
| Orlando City SCvFC Cincinnati | Totals | Over1.5 | 78.8% | 1.27 | 1.56 | +22.9% | 3.00% |
One row per market per match: the side the model prefers. The two sides of a two-way line are near mirror images, so showing both would double the table without adding anything. Edges are measured against each pair de-vigged on its own, not against the match-winner margin — books load goals markets more heavily, and borrowing the 1X2 overround here would flatter every row.
Best value on this date
| Match | Selection | Model | Fair | Book | EV | Stake |
|---|
| Atlanta United FCvNew York Red Bulls | New York Red Bulls A | 33.3% | 3.00 | 3.67 | +22.2% | 2.08% |
| Atlanta United FCvNew York Red Bulls | Draw | 30.2% | 3.31 | 4.03 | +21.8% | 1.80% |
| CharlottevColumbus Crew | Columbus Crew A | 37.6% | 2.66 | 2.91 | +9.7% | 1.27% |
| CF MontrealvDC United | CF Montreal H | 48.9% | 2.04 | 2.21 | +8.1% | 1.67% |
| Orlando City SCvFC Cincinnati | Orlando City SC H | 47.9% | 2.09 | 2.21 | +5.8% | 1.20% |
| Toronto FCvNew England Revolution | Draw | 27.2% | 3.68 | 3.58 | -2.7% | — |
Stake is blank unless a selection clears every gate: positive expected value, at least 5 percentage points of edge over the de-vigged line, and not more than 25 (a disagreement that large is usually the model missing something, not an opportunity). Most rows will be blank most days. Selections marked longshot are below 10% — their EV figure divides by a very small number and should not be trusted. thin data means one side has too few matches in the model's history for its rating to mean anything; the huge edge shown is the model's ignorance, not the market's mistake.
Goal markets on this date
| Match | Market | Pick | Model | Fair | Book | EV | Stake |
|---|
| CF MontrealvDC United | Totals | Over3.5 | 34.4% | 2.90 | 7.08 | +143.7% | 3.00% |
| CF MontrealvDC United | Totals | Over2.5 | 55.9% | 1.79 | 3.90 | +117.8% | — |
| CharlottevColumbus Crew | Totals | Over2.5 | 53.8% | 1.86 | 3.89 | +109.6% | — |
| CharlottevColumbus Crew | Totals | Over3.5 | 32.4% | 3.09 | 6.41 | +107.5% | 3.00% |
| Toronto FCvNew England Revolution | Totals | Over2.5 | 48.7% | 2.05 | 4.11 | +100.4% | 3.00% |
| Atlanta United FCvNew York Red Bulls | Totals | Over3.5 | 29.9% | 3.35 | 6.69 | +99.9% | 3.00% |
One row per market per match: the side the model prefers. The two sides of a two-way line are near mirror images, so showing both would double the table without adding anything. Edges are measured against each pair de-vigged on its own, not against the match-winner margin — books load goals markets more heavily, and borrowing the 1X2 overround here would flatter every row.
Orlando City SC HOME
v FC Cincinnati AWAY
23:30 · MLS · expected goals
Orlando City SC 1.66 – 1.28 FC Cincinnati
Orlando City SC 48%
· draw 21%
· FC Cincinnati 31%
| Model | Market | Book odds | Edge |
|---|
| Orlando City SC | 47.9% | 42.7% | 2.21 | +5.2pp |
| Draw | 21.2% | 22.3% | 4.08 | -1.2pp |
| FC Cincinnati | 30.9% | 34.9% | 2.68 | -4.0pp |
| Over 1.5 | 78.8% | 60.2% | 1.56 | +18.5pp |
| Under 1.5 | 21.2% | 39.8% | 2.36 | -18.5pp |
| Over 2.5 | 56.1% | 39.1% | 2.58 | +17.1pp |
| Under 2.5 | 43.9% | 60.9% | 1.65 | -17.1pp |
| Over 3.5 | 34.6% | 19.9% | 5.28 | +14.7pp |
| Under 3.5 | 65.4% | 80.1% | 1.31 | -14.7pp |
| BTTS Yes | 56.4% | 50.6% | 2.22 | +5.8pp |
| BTTS No | 43.6% | 49.4% | 2.27 | -5.8pp |
Orlando City … or draw
69%
Orlando City … clean sheet
28%
FC Cincinnati clean sheet
19%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 12% · 2–1 9% · 1–0 8% · 2–0 7%
Correlated combinations
- FC Cincinnati win + FC Cincinnati clean sheet — 13% (fair 7.55); naive multiplication would say 6%, off by +140%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 32% (fair 3.14); naive multiplication would say 18%, off by +79%
- Orlando City … win + Orlando City … clean sheet — 22% (fair 4.55); naive multiplication would say 13%, off by +73%
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 17% (fair 5.74); naive multiplication would say 11%, off by +60%
Atlanta United FC HOME
v New York Red Bulls AWAY
23:30 · MLS · expected goals
Atlanta United FC 1.38 – 1.34 New York Red Bulls
Atlanta United FC 36%
· draw 30%
· New York Red Bulls 33%
| Model | Market | Book odds | Edge |
|---|
| Atlanta United FC | 36.5% | 52.5% | 1.81 | -16.0pp |
| Draw | 30.2% | 22.6% | 4.03 | +7.6pp |
| New York Red Bulls | 33.3% | 25.0% | 3.67 | +8.3pp |
| Over 1.5 | 75.2% | 53.3% | 1.76 | +21.8pp |
| Under 1.5 | 24.8% | 46.7% | 2.02 | -21.8pp |
| Over 2.5 | 51.2% | 31.9% | 3.15 | +19.3pp |
| Under 2.5 | 48.8% | 68.1% | 1.47 | -19.3pp |
| Over 3.5 | 29.9% | 15.9% | 6.69 | +13.9pp |
| Under 3.5 | 70.1% | 84.1% | 1.27 | -13.9pp |
| BTTS Yes | 54.1% | 41.8% | 2.63 | +12.3pp |
| BTTS No | 45.9% | 58.2% | 1.89 | -12.3pp |
Atlanta Unite… or draw
67%
draw or New York Red …
64%
Atlanta Unite… clean sheet
26%
New York Red … clean sheet
25%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 13% · 1–0 9% · 2–1 8% · 0–1 8%
Correlated combinations
- New York Red … win + New York Red … clean sheet — 18% (fair 5.52); naive multiplication would say 9%, off by +101%
- Atlanta Unite… win + Atlanta Unite… clean sheet — 19% (fair 5.27); naive multiplication would say 10%, off by +95%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 36% (fair 2.77); naive multiplication would say 22%, off by +68%
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 20% (fair 5.06); naive multiplication would say 13%, off by +52%
Charlotte HOME
v Columbus Crew AWAY
23:30 · MLS · expected goals
Charlotte 1.45 – 1.38 Columbus Crew
Charlotte 37%
· draw 26%
· Columbus Crew 38%
| Model | Market | Book odds | Edge |
|---|
| Charlotte | 36.6% | 42.6% | 2.21 | -6.0pp |
| Draw | 25.8% | 25.5% | 3.61 | +0.3pp |
| Columbus Crew | 37.6% | 31.9% | 2.91 | +5.7pp |
| Over 1.5 | 77.1% | 46.7% | 2.01 | +30.4pp |
| Under 1.5 | 22.9% | 53.3% | 1.76 | -30.4pp |
| Over 2.5 | 53.8% | 25.3% | 3.89 | +28.6pp |
| Under 2.5 | 46.2% | 74.7% | 1.32 | -28.6pp |
| Over 3.5 | 32.4% | 16.3% | 6.41 | +16.1pp |
| Under 3.5 | 67.6% | 83.7% | 1.25 | -16.1pp |
| BTTS Yes | 55.6% | 34.6% | 3.22 | +21.0pp |
| BTTS No | 44.4% | 65.4% | 1.71 | -21.0pp |
Columbus Crew clean sheet
23%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 12% · 2–1 9% · 1–2 8% · 1–0 8%
Correlated combinations
- Columbus Crew win + Columbus Crew clean sheet — 17% (fair 5.88); naive multiplication would say 8%, off by +106%
- Charlotte win + Charlotte clean sheet — 19% (fair 5.35); naive multiplication would say 10%, off by +94%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 34% (fair 2.96); naive multiplication would say 19%, off by +74%
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 19% (fair 5.37); naive multiplication would say 12%, off by +55%
Toronto FC HOME
v New England Revolution AWAY
23:30 · MLS · expected goals
Toronto FC 1.41 – 1.21 New England Revolution
Toronto FC 43%
· draw 27%
· New England Revolution 30%
| Model | Market | Book odds | Edge |
|---|
| Toronto FC | 42.7% | 43.6% | 2.16 | -1.0pp |
| Draw | 27.2% | 25.7% | 3.58 | +1.5pp |
| New England Revolution | 30.1% | 30.7% | 3.03 | -0.5pp |
| Over 1.5 | 73.3% | 46.4% | 2.02 | +26.9pp |
| Under 1.5 | 26.7% | 53.6% | 1.75 | -26.9pp |
| Over 2.5 | 48.7% | 24.0% | 4.11 | +24.7pp |
| Under 2.5 | 51.3% | 76.0% | 1.30 | -24.7pp |
| Over 3.5 | 27.7% | 16.0% | 6.55 | +11.7pp |
| Under 3.5 | 72.3% | 84.0% | 1.24 | -11.7pp |
| BTTS Yes | 52.5% | 34.9% | 3.15 | +17.7pp |
| BTTS No | 47.5% | 65.1% | 1.69 | -17.7pp |
draw or New England R…
57%
Toronto FC clean sheet
30%
New England R… clean sheet
24%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 13% · 1–0 10% · 2–1 9% · 0–1 8%
Correlated combinations
- New England R… win + New England R… clean sheet — 17% (fair 6.02); naive multiplication would say 8%, off by +114%
- Toronto FC win + Toronto FC clean sheet — 22% (fair 4.55); naive multiplication would say 12%, off by +80%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 38% (fair 2.61); naive multiplication would say 24%, off by +61%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 41% (fair 2.46); naive multiplication would say 26%, off by +56%
CF Montreal HOME
v DC United AWAY
23:30 · MLS · expected goals
CF Montreal 1.73 – 1.20 DC United
CF Montreal 49%
· draw 26%
· DC United 25%
| Model | Market | Book odds | Edge |
|---|
| CF Montreal | 48.9% | 42.8% | 2.21 | +6.1pp |
| Draw | 26.1% | 25.9% | 3.56 | +0.2pp |
| DC United | 25.0% | 31.2% | 2.99 | -6.2pp |
| Over 1.5 | 78.6% | 46.4% | 2.02 | +32.2pp |
| Under 1.5 | 21.4% | 53.6% | 1.75 | -32.2pp |
| Over 2.5 | 55.9% | 25.1% | 3.90 | +30.8pp |
| Under 2.5 | 44.1% | 74.9% | 1.31 | -30.8pp |
| Over 3.5 | 34.4% | 14.6% | 7.08 | +19.8pp |
| Under 3.5 | 65.6% | 85.4% | 1.21 | -19.8pp |
| BTTS Yes | 55.7% | 30.9% | 3.54 | +24.8pp |
| BTTS No | 44.3% | 69.1% | 1.58 | -24.8pp |
CF Montreal clean sheet
30%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 12% · 2–1 10% · 1–0 9% · 2–0 8%
Correlated combinations
- DC United win + DC United clean sheet — 12% (fair 8.37); naive multiplication would say 5%, off by +158%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 32% (fair 3.10); naive multiplication would say 18%, off by +76%
- CF Montreal win + CF Montreal clean sheet — 24% (fair 4.13); naive multiplication would say 15%, off by +64%
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 17% (fair 5.77); naive multiplication would say 11%, off by +61%