Model output, not advice. These are probabilities from a
statistical model, published for transparency about how it performs. They are
not tips and not financial advice. In backtests this model does not
reliably beat closing prices, which is the only benchmark that matters, so
expect selections here to lose money over time. 18+. Gambling is addictive; if
it stops being a modelling exercise, stop.
TUR1 4 fixtures across 1 day
Best goal markets over/under and both teams to score, every day in this window
| Match | Market | Pick | Model | Fair | Book | EV | Stake |
|---|
| KasımpaşavTrabzonspor | Totals | Over3.5 | 36.1% | 2.77 | 8.06 | +191.2% | 3.00% |
| KonyasporvRizespor | Totals | Over3.5 | 31.7% | 3.15 | 8.17 | +159.3% | 3.00% |
| Gençlerbirliği S.K.vFenerbahçe | Totals | Over3.5 | 33.6% | 2.98 | 7.48 | +151.0% | 3.00% |
| KasımpaşavTrabzonspor | Totals | Over2.5 | 57.6% | 1.73 | 4.19 | +141.5% | — |
| Gençlerbirliği S.K.vFenerbahçe | Totals | Over2.5 | 55.0% | 1.82 | 4.17 | +129.7% | — |
| KonyasporvRizespor | Totals | Over2.5 | 53.1% | 1.88 | 4.31 | +129.0% | — |
| KasımpaşavTrabzonspor | BTTS | Yes— | 57.4% | 1.74 | 3.84 | +120.4% | — |
| Gaziantep FKvAlanyaspor | Totals | Over2.5 | 49.5% | 2.02 | 4.40 | +117.6% | — |
| Gaziantep FKvAlanyaspor | Totals | Over3.5 | 28.4% | 3.52 | 7.50 | +112.8% | 3.00% |
| Gençlerbirliği S.K.vFenerbahçe | BTTS | Yes— | 53.0% | 1.89 | 3.92 | +107.8% | — |
| KonyasporvRizespor | BTTS | Yes— | 54.7% | 1.83 | 3.50 | +91.3% | 3.00% |
| Gaziantep FKvAlanyaspor | BTTS | Yes— | 53.2% | 1.88 | 3.59 | +90.7% | 3.00% |
| KasımpaşavTrabzonspor | Totals | Over1.5 | 79.8% | 1.25 | 2.16 | +72.5% | — |
| KonyasporvRizespor | Totals | Over1.5 | 76.6% | 1.31 | 2.19 | +68.1% | — |
| Gaziantep FKvAlanyaspor | Totals | Over1.5 | 73.9% | 1.35 | 2.23 | +65.1% | — |
| Gençlerbirliği S.K.vFenerbahçe | Totals | Over1.5 | 77.9% | 1.28 | 2.10 | +63.6% | — |
One row per market per match: the side the model prefers. The two sides of a two-way line are near mirror images, so showing both would double the table without adding anything. Edges are measured against each pair de-vigged on its own, not against the match-winner margin — books load goals markets more heavily, and borrowing the 1X2 overround here would flatter every row.
Best value on this date
| Match | Selection | Model | Fair | Book | EV | Stake |
|---|
| KasımpaşavTrabzonspor | Kasımpaşa H | 25.6% | 3.91 | 4.06 | +3.7% | — |
| KonyasporvRizespor | Konyaspor H | 43.3% | 2.31 | 2.38 | +3.1% | — |
| Gençlerbirliği S.K.vFenerbahçe | Fenerbahçe A | 70.2% | 1.42 | 1.46 | +2.5% | 1.38% |
| Gaziantep FKvAlanyaspor | Draw | 28.2% | 3.54 | 3.31 | -6.5% | — |
| Gaziantep FKvAlanyaspor | Gaziantep FK H | 37.3% | 2.68 | 2.49 | -7.2% | — |
| Gaziantep FKvAlanyaspor | Alanyaspor A | 34.5% | 2.90 | 2.67 | -7.9% | — |
Stake is blank unless a selection clears every gate: positive expected value, at least 5 percentage points of edge over the de-vigged line, and not more than 25 (a disagreement that large is usually the model missing something, not an opportunity). Most rows will be blank most days. Selections marked longshot are below 10% — their EV figure divides by a very small number and should not be trusted. thin data means one side has too few matches in the model's history for its rating to mean anything; the huge edge shown is the model's ignorance, not the market's mistake.
Goal markets on this date
| Match | Market | Pick | Model | Fair | Book | EV | Stake |
|---|
| KasımpaşavTrabzonspor | Totals | Over3.5 | 36.1% | 2.77 | 8.06 | +191.2% | 3.00% |
| KonyasporvRizespor | Totals | Over3.5 | 31.7% | 3.15 | 8.17 | +159.3% | 3.00% |
| Gençlerbirliği S.K.vFenerbahçe | Totals | Over3.5 | 33.6% | 2.98 | 7.48 | +151.0% | 3.00% |
| KasımpaşavTrabzonspor | Totals | Over2.5 | 57.6% | 1.73 | 4.19 | +141.5% | — |
| Gençlerbirliği S.K.vFenerbahçe | Totals | Over2.5 | 55.0% | 1.82 | 4.17 | +129.7% | — |
| KonyasporvRizespor | Totals | Over2.5 | 53.1% | 1.88 | 4.31 | +129.0% | — |
One row per market per match: the side the model prefers. The two sides of a two-way line are near mirror images, so showing both would double the table without adding anything. Edges are measured against each pair de-vigged on its own, not against the match-winner margin — books load goals markets more heavily, and borrowing the 1X2 overround here would flatter every row.
Kasımpaşa HOME
v Trabzonspor AWAY
16:00 · TUR1 · expected goals
Kasımpaşa 1.35 – 1.67 Trabzonspor
Kasımpaşa 26%
· draw 24%
· Trabzonspor 51%
| Model | Market | Book odds | Edge |
|---|
| Kasımpaşa | 25.6% | 22.2% | 4.06 | +3.3pp |
| Draw | 23.7% | 24.8% | 3.66 | -1.2pp |
| Trabzonspor | 50.8% | 52.9% | 1.79 | -2.2pp |
| Over 1.5 | 79.8% | 43.5% | 2.16 | +36.3pp |
| Under 1.5 | 20.2% | 56.5% | 1.66 | -36.3pp |
| Over 2.5 | 57.6% | 24.1% | 4.19 | +33.6pp |
| Under 2.5 | 42.4% | 75.9% | 1.33 | -33.6pp |
| Over 3.5 | 36.1% | 12.7% | 8.06 | +23.4pp |
| Under 3.5 | 63.9% | 87.3% | 1.17 | -23.4pp |
| BTTS Yes | 57.4% | 27.6% | 3.84 | +29.9pp |
| BTTS No | 42.6% | 72.4% | 1.46 | -29.9pp |
Trabzonspor clean sheet
26%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 11% · 1–2 9% · 0–1 8% · 2–1 7%
Correlated combinations
- Kasımpaşa win + Kasımpaşa clean sheet — 13% (fair 7.41); naive multiplication would say 6%, off by +134%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 31% (fair 3.27); naive multiplication would say 17%, off by +84%
- Trabzonspor win + Trabzonspor clean sheet — 21% (fair 4.84); naive multiplication would say 12%, off by +78%
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 17% (fair 5.93); naive multiplication would say 10%, off by +62%
Konyaspor HOME
v Rizespor AWAY
16:00 · TUR1 · expected goals
Konyaspor 1.57 – 1.23 Rizespor
Konyaspor 43%
· draw 26%
· Rizespor 31%
| Model | Market | Book odds | Edge |
|---|
| Konyaspor | 43.3% | 39.3% | 2.38 | +4.0pp |
| Draw | 25.9% | 28.5% | 3.22 | -2.6pp |
| Rizespor | 30.8% | 32.2% | 2.88 | -1.4pp |
| Over 1.5 | 76.6% | 43.0% | 2.19 | +33.6pp |
| Under 1.5 | 23.4% | 57.0% | 1.66 | -33.6pp |
| Over 2.5 | 53.1% | 23.4% | 4.31 | +29.7pp |
| Under 2.5 | 46.9% | 76.6% | 1.31 | -29.7pp |
| Over 3.5 | 31.7% | 12.5% | 8.17 | +19.2pp |
| Under 3.5 | 68.3% | 87.5% | 1.17 | -19.2pp |
| BTTS Yes | 54.7% | 30.1% | 3.50 | +24.6pp |
| BTTS No | 45.3% | 69.9% | 1.51 | -24.6pp |
Likeliest scores: 1–1 12% · 2–1 9% · 1–0 9% · 2–0 7%
Correlated combinations
- Rizespor win + Rizespor clean sheet — 14% (fair 7.04); naive multiplication would say 6%, off by +133%
- Konyaspor win + Konyaspor clean sheet — 23% (fair 4.43); naive multiplication would say 13%, off by +73%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 35% (fair 2.90); naive multiplication would say 20%, off by +71%
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 19% (fair 5.34); naive multiplication would say 12%, off by +55%
Gaziantep FK HOME
v Alanyaspor AWAY
18:30 · TUR1 · expected goals
Gaziantep FK 1.34 – 1.31 Alanyaspor
Gaziantep FK 37%
· draw 28%
· Alanyaspor 34%
| Model | Market | Book odds | Edge |
|---|
| Gaziantep FK | 37.3% | 37.5% | 2.49 | -0.2pp |
| Draw | 28.2% | 27.7% | 3.31 | +0.5pp |
| Alanyaspor | 34.5% | 34.8% | 2.67 | -0.3pp |
| Over 1.5 | 73.9% | 42.2% | 2.23 | +31.7pp |
| Under 1.5 | 26.1% | 57.8% | 1.63 | -31.7pp |
| Over 2.5 | 49.5% | 22.8% | 4.40 | +26.7pp |
| Under 2.5 | 50.5% | 77.2% | 1.30 | -26.7pp |
| Over 3.5 | 28.4% | 13.5% | 7.50 | +14.9pp |
| Under 3.5 | 71.6% | 86.5% | 1.17 | -14.9pp |
| BTTS Yes | 53.2% | 29.4% | 3.59 | +23.8pp |
| BTTS No | 46.8% | 70.6% | 1.49 | -23.8pp |
Gaziantep FK clean sheet
27%
Alanyaspor clean sheet
26%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 13% · 1–0 9% · 0–1 9% · 2–1 8%
Correlated combinations
- Alanyaspor win + Alanyaspor clean sheet — 19% (fair 5.38); naive multiplication would say 9%, off by +99%
- Gaziantep FK win + Gaziantep FK clean sheet — 19% (fair 5.17); naive multiplication would say 10%, off by +94%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 38% (fair 2.66); naive multiplication would say 23%, off by +64%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 42% (fair 2.41); naive multiplication would say 27%, off by +54%
Gençlerbirliği S.K. HOME
v Fenerbahçe AWAY
18:30 · TUR1 · expected goals
Gençlerbirliği S.K. 1.00 – 1.89 Fenerbahçe
Gençlerbirliği S.K. 12%
· draw 17%
· Fenerbahçe 70%
| Model | Market | Book odds | Edge |
|---|
| Gençlerbirliği S.K. | 12.4% | 14.0% | 6.16 | -1.5pp |
| Draw | 17.4% | 20.9% | 4.28 | -3.5pp |
| Fenerbahçe | 70.2% | 65.1% | 1.46 | +5.1pp |
| Over 1.5 | 77.9% | 44.8% | 2.10 | +33.2pp |
| Under 1.5 | 22.1% | 55.2% | 1.70 | -33.2pp |
| Over 2.5 | 55.0% | 23.5% | 4.17 | +31.6pp |
| Under 2.5 | 45.0% | 76.5% | 1.28 | -31.6pp |
| Over 3.5 | 33.6% | 13.7% | 7.48 | +19.9pp |
| Under 3.5 | 66.4% | 86.3% | 1.19 | -19.9pp |
| BTTS Yes | 53.0% | 26.4% | 3.92 | +26.5pp |
| BTTS No | 47.0% | 73.6% | 1.41 | -26.5pp |
Gençlerbirliğ… or draw
30%
Gençlerbirliğ… clean sheet
15%
Fenerbahçe clean sheet
37%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 11% · 0–1 10% · 1–2 10% · 0–2 10%
Correlated combinations
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 34% (fair 2.96); naive multiplication would say 20%, off by +65%
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 17% (fair 5.91); naive multiplication would say 10%, off by +64%
- Fenerbahçe win + Fenerbahçe clean sheet — 31% (fair 3.26); naive multiplication would say 21%, off by +45%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 43% (fair 2.31); naive multiplication would say 30%, off by +44%